公安边防部门处置境外边民大规模涌入事件探析

近年来,境外边民大规模涌入事件时有发生,严重危害我国边境地区的安全稳定。归纳和总结境外边民涌入事件的特点,研究处置的要求和方法,为境外边民大规模涌入事件的各阶段分别制定处置方法。     

The centrality of checkpoints for civilians during conflict

Analyses of the violence–displacement relationship motivate a disaggregation of violence into violence in residential areas (home violence) and violence along migration routes (road violence). These two forms of violence have opposite effects upon displacement, with home violence increasing displacement and road violence decreasing displacement. Yet, conflict scholarship would benefit from additional consideration of the specific activities that constitute road violence. This consideration reveals that road violence primarily involves displacement-deterring violence at checkpoints. This motivates the question: How does checkpoint violence deter displacement? Using interviews with Syrian and Somali refugees, as well as daily data on violence and displacement in Somalia, this paper argues that state and non-state armed groups create and foster uncertainty at checkpoints. Then, they use dramatic violence that is tangible to civilians through their ability to physically see, hear, and smell evidence of it as propaganda. As propaganda, the deterrent effect of checkpoint violence is amplified beyond isolated violent events. More broadly, results from quantitative analysis of the daily data on violence and displacement in Somalia indicate that uncertainty about road violence (road uncertainty) and uncertainty about home violence (home uncertainty) amplify the effects of road violence and home violence, respectively.     

Military Spending and Economic Growth in the Middle East Countries: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test

This study revisits the causal relationship between military spending and economic growth in 10 Middle East countries via a panel causality analysis that accounts for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across countries. Our results indicate unidirectional causality from military spending to growth for Turkey; one-way causality from economic growth to military spending for Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, and Syria; bidirectional causality for Israel; and no causality in either direction for Jordan, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. The empirical evidence does not provide consistent results regarding the causal relationship between defense expenditure and economic growth in these countries.     

Do Employers Favor those with Military Experience in the U.S. Reserve Forces? Evidence from a Field Experiment

This study examines whether completed service in the military reserves results in a civilian labor market benefit. Reservists are not completely absent from the civilian labor market during their military service, possibly allowing them to receive the benefits associated with military experience without forgoing valuable civilian labor market experience. Using a resume study, the results suggest that completed service in the military reserves, relative to no military experience, increases the probability of receiving a request for an interview by 19%.     

Pirates – The Young and the Jobless: The Effect of Youth Bulges and Youth Labor Market Integration on Maritime Piracy

This article examines the impact of youth bulges and the lack of perspective of this cohort associated with the insufficient absorption of the labor market on the emergence of piracy acts. For a large panel data-set on maritime piracy and armed robbery against ships for the period 1990–2015 negative binomial regression results indicate that a large fraction of young people in a country increases the likelihood of piracy attacks originating from that country. Further, the piracy-driving effect is conditional on constrains in the labor market. It increases when the young population is insufficiently integrated into the labor market and becomes insignificant for high levels of labor force participation. The dearth of prospects seems to lower the inhibition to make a living from criminal activity.     

Performances of the defense industrial base in France: the role of small and medium enterprises

This paper employs an economic and statistical approach to get an overview of the defense industrial base (DIB) in France. It allows us to identify its main characteristics and to measure the role of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). An original data-set was built, thanks to the information from the Ministry of Defense (MOD), the French Customs Central and National Administration, the Organization for Joint Armament Cooperation (OCCAR), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and all the most relevant organizations specialized in the development, production or maintenance, repair, and overhaul of military goods in France. Overall, the DIB turns out as being composed of about 1800 enterprises in France (subcontractors included), of which three-third are SMEs. Along with high market concentration ratios, these enterprises are characterized by a significant military/civil duality, high labor productivity rates, and intensity in Research and Development.     

‘Second-Class’: The Grievances of Sunni Officers in the Syrian Armed Forces

The defection of a significant number of Sunni officers amidst the ongoing turmoil in Syria created a unique opportunity to get access to original data on the Syrian armed forces. This study draws on extensive fieldwork to probe the sectarian question in the Syrian officer corps. On the basis of a series of interviews conducted throughout the summer of 2014, I investigate the politics and consequences of sectarian stacking in the Syrian military as well as the root causes of Sunni officers’ grievances and alienation. My conclusions draw on an original database that compiles the sectarian affiliations of 81 prominent officers who occupied the most senior military positions under Bashar al-Asad.     

The politics of international chemical weapon justice: The case of Syria, 2011–2017

There has been near-universal condemnation of the use of chemical weapons in the Syrian conflict. The international community has nevertheless struggled to make progress on holding the perpetrators to account. This article reviews developments at the international level in terms of Syrian chemical weapon justice between 2011 and 2017. It argues that there have been substantive disagreements between states on the rationale and means of justice in the Syrian case. It also argues that international initiatives have been tightly intertwined with developments in chemical disarmament and conflict resolution processes as well as the broader war. The article describes progress and challenges to chemical weapon justice in a number of distinct formal international mechanisms during the period studied. The analysis concludes by contextualizing international responses—including the U.S. tomahawk strikes against a Syrian airbase—to the Khan Shaykhun chemical attacks of April 2017.     

关于劳动概念界定的新探讨及其意义——基于概念概括性和劳动过程关系的分析

本着理论来源于现实反过来能解释现实的思想,分析比较各种相像活动和考察分析劳动的过程关系,可知劳动是可由非特定主体能动地作用客体而产生或协助产生正向价值的过程性活动。如此界定,可消除以往劳动概念界定的偏颇,可以为人们对某一活动是不是劳动提供判定标准或根据,也可以加深对非英雄史观、劳动异化、共产主义社会等历史唯物主义重要问题的理解,因而具有重要意义。     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

From Domestic to Regional: The Civil War Conundrum and the Cases of Syria and Algeria

This paper seeks to answer a simple question: When do regional powers get involved in civil wars? Some civil wars see a significant involvement of regional actors, while others show a remarkable level of isolation. What explains this difference? This research answers this question by looking at two case studies: the Algerian civil war (1991–2002) and the Syrian civil war (2011–up to date). The paper identifies and develops five factors of regional involvement. These are: capabilities, regional dynamics, country’s relevance, regional security issues/containment and domestic–external links. civil wars are today one of the most prominent and deadly forms of conflict, and this paper contributes to understanding the important but understudied issue of regional involvement.     

Empirical Investigation into the Determinants of Terrorism: Evidence from Fragile States

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of terrorism in countries that are in the top category of the Fragile States Index (FSI), and are also prone to terrorism. Panel data for 38 countries mainly from Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia for the years 2005–2014 are used. Findings from the negative binomial and fixed effects estimation show that fragile state, number of refugees and youth unemployment have positive and significant impacts on terrorism. Military spending is positive but less robust across models. Conversely, FDI and remittances have a negative impact on terrorism with the former less robust. Governance and foreign aid are negative and insignificantly related to terrorism. Policy implications follow from the findings.     

An operator theory of parametric programming for the transportation problem-I

This paper investigates the effect on the optimum solution of a (capacitated) transportation problem when the data of the problem (the rim conditions-i. e., the warehouse supplies and market demands-the per unit transportation costs and the upper bounds) are continuously varied as a (linear) function of a single parameter. An operator theory is developed and algorithms provided for applying rim and cost operators that effect the transformation of optimum solution associated with changes in rim conditions and unit costs. Bound operators that effect changes in upper bounds are shown to be equivalent to rim operators. The discussion in this paper is limited to basis preserving operators for which the changes in the data are such that the optimum basis structures are preserved.     

An operator theory of parametric programming for the transportation problem-II

This paper investigates the effect on the optimum solution of a (capacitated) transportation problem when the data of the problem (the rim conditions-i. e., the warehouse supplies and market demands-, the per unit transportation costs and the upper bounds) are continuously varied as a (linear) function of a single parameter. Operators that effect the transformation of optimum solution associated with such data changes, are shown to be a product of basis preserving operators (described in the earlier paper) that operate on a sequence of adjacent basis structures. Algorithms are provided for both rim and cost operators. The paper concludes with a discussion of the economic and managerial interpretations of the operators.     

MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: GRANGER CAUSALITY TESTS USING GLOBAL PANEL DATA

This paper investigates the empirical relationships between military expenditure and unemployment rates. A set of global panel data on 46 countries is utilized, and a panel data version of the Granger causality test is applied. The results indicate that there is little evidence of the causality running from unemployment to military expenditure regardless of how we measure military spending and determine group countries. In contrast, the causality running from military expenditure to unemployment receives empirical support if military expenditure is measured in terms of its share of GDP and if data are taken from middle‐ and low‐income countries or non‐OECD countries.     

Themes in defence manpower economics and challenges for the future

Raising and maintaining military forces have posed enormous challenges for the United States and its allies. Economists have made significant contributions to understanding of how to recruit and manage such forces. This paper highlights key past contributions and discusses challenges for future research. Rapid changes in the roles and missions of military personnel, technology, and the civilian labor market pose serious challenges for future military manpower policy and will challenge economists to develop new approaches to military recruiting and personnel management. Yet the body of past research can continue to provide insight and guidance in making decisions about defense manpower.     

Demilitarising Demographics: US Policy Options for Strengthening Georgian Internal Security

How are refugees mobilised in identity based conflicts? How do internally displaced persons and refugees become utilised as a multidimensional source of agitation and escalation? Are there steps the international community can take to limit the political radicalisation and militarisation of refugees? The research and policy recommendations that arise in addressing these broad-based research questions represent a test of how the assistance the international community provides to transitional states operates in relation to the internal dialectic of national security. Specifically, a detailed case study of the Abkhaz-Georgian conflict and the degree of refugee militarisation is analysed through a series of state-centric, sociological and military models in order to form a basis for creating new US policy options able to demilitarise existing demographic pressures.     

The evolution of Hezbollah's strategy and military performance, 1982–2006

This article fills a gap in the research on Hezbollah by evaluating their military performance from their formation in 1982 and up till the 2006 Israel–Hezbollah war. This study tests the theses that Hezbollah had developed a very strong tactical proficiency in the late 1990s and that there are more similarities in their strategy and tactics during the 2006 war and the 1982–2000 insurgency in Southern Lebanon than previously assumed. Another central theme of this article is how Hezbollah has been constantly adapting and evolving for the duration of its existence.     

Security Assistance in a Post-interventionist Era: The Impact on Limited Statehood in Lebanon and Tunisia

Abstract

Post-interventionist security assistance is premised on non-normative security understandings and flexible arrangements between external and local actors. In hybrid political regimes or areas of limited statehood, these forms of assistance, while strengthening specific aspects of a country’s security context, reinforce some domestic actors vis-à-vis others thanks to processes of selective borrowing by local political elites. This paper demonstrates how such processes contribute to the proliferation of hybrid elements in the country’s security sector. In two contrasting case studies, we illustrate how security assistance packages in Lebanon and Tunisia have diluted emerging democratic reforms, producing more coercive manifestation of state power.     

A Clash of Wills: Hizballah's Psychological Campaign Against Israel in South Lebanon

This article analyzes Hizballah's war against Israel in south Lebanon as a psychological contest where public opinion, perception, and persuasion were the real determinants of victory. Hizballah successfully mobilized popular support for its war by communicating nationalist and religious themes to different sectarian groups in Lebanon. At the same time, it used classic guerrilla warfare as a carefully calibrated psychological tool to erode the morale of Israeli forces, their Lebanese allies, and the Israeli public's support for the war. Hizballah's sophisticated media capability, particularly combat video footage aired on its satellite TV station and the Internet, played a critical role in amplifying the effects of its attrition campaign. By orchestrating information-age media and guerrilla tactics, this strategy has important implications for the future of irregular warfare.