基于Vague集的地面防空武器系统作战效能评估

针对已有评估方法存在的不足,提出一种基于Vague集的地面防空武器系统作战效能评估新方法。分析了影响地面防空武器系统作战效能的指标因素,给出了各评价指标的模糊值表示及指标权重的计算方法,该方法能有效避免传统的专家打分法造成的主观偏差。在此基础上,建立了基于Vague集的地面防空武器系统作战效能综合评价模型,给出了评价其优劣的排序方法。最后通过实例仿真验证,该方法评估结果准确,对指挥员科学决策具有一定的参考价值。     

基于MADM组合赋权的防空武器系统机动能力评估

针对防空武器系统机动能力评估问题不确定多属性决策的特点,提出一种基于MADM组合赋权的武器系统机动能力评估方法。构建了防空武器系统机动能力评估指标体系,给出了指标权重不相容情况下如何寻找并剔除疵点权重的方法。在此基础上,建立了一种基于区间估计解决武器系统机动能力评估问题的数学模型。最后通过实例分析验证,该方法评估结果准确,能有效减小误差,对指挥员科学决策具有一定的参考价值。     

基于Vague集投影及距离的地面防空火力配系评估

针对已有评估方法存在的不足,提出一种基于Vague集投影及距离的地面防空火力配系评估新方法。分析了影响防空火力配系的指标因素,并给出各评价指标的Vague值表示方法。在此基础上,应用Vague集投影及距离的多属性模糊决策理论,建立了地面防空火力配系评估数学模型,给出了评价其优劣的排序方法。最后通过实例分析验证,该方法评估结果准确,对指挥员科学决策具有一定的参考价值。     

基于Vague集的多人决策地面防空火力配系评估方法

针对已有评估方法存在的不足,提出一种基于Vague集的多人决策地面防空火力配系评估新方法。对地面防空火力配系评价指标进行了分析,给出了偏离理想决策最大的Vague集剔除方法,使多位决策者意见不一致的问题得到了有效解决,构建了地面防空火力配系评估数学模型,给出了防空火力配系评估方法。通过实例分析验证,该方法评估结果客观准确。     

防空武器系统机动能力评估模型研究

防空武器系统的机动性是防空武器系统效能评估的重要指标,也是防空兵部队机动能力的技术基础.机动性指标涉及多方面的因素,全面评估比较复杂,目前还没有统一的方法,从研制发展新型防空武器系统过程中,需要开展效能分析以便于对不同设计方案进行比较选优的角度出发,提出一种基于层次分析(AHP)与模糊评价相结合的方法.     

基于Vague集的目标优先级求解方法

针对地面防空武器系统中目标优先级排序问题,建立了基于Vague集的目标优先级的模型。首先分析并量化了优先级影响因素中的定性指标和定量指标,建立了基于Vague集目标优先级决策矩阵;其次,针对传统基于Vague集目标优先级求解问题中影响因素权重难以确定问题,提出了基于Vague值距离测度最大化原理的权重确定方法,该方法有效地避免了权重选择的主观性;最后根据综合贴近度进行优先级的排序。算例仿真验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于Vague集模糊值线性序法的雷达抗干扰效能评估

针对已有评估方法存在的不足,提出了一种基于Vague集模糊值线性序法的雷达抗干扰效能评估方法。分析了影响雷达抗干扰效能的指标因素,给出了各评价指标的模糊值表示,建立了基于Vague集模糊值线性序法的雷达抗干扰效能综合评价模型,得到了评价其效能的排序方法。最后通过实例分析验证,该方法评估结果准确,具有一定参考价值。     

基于Vague集投影及距离的空中目标威胁评估方法

针对已有空中目标威胁评估方法存在的不足,提出一种基于Vague集投影及距离的威胁评估新方法。分析并确定了空中目标威胁因素中的评估指标,给出了评价指标的Vague值表示方法。在此基础上,应用Vague集投影及距离的多属性模糊决策理论,建立了空中目标威胁评估的数学模型,给出了目标威胁的排序方法。最后通过实例分析验证,该方法评估结果准确,对指挥员科学决策具有一定的参考价值。     

弹炮结合防空武器系统机动生存能力模型研究

从弹炮结合防空武器系统通过机动作战提高生存能力的角度出发,结合防空武器系统机动作战过程中的战术背景,提取了该过程中决定防空武器系统生存能力的决定性要素,然后分析了该过程中影响防空武器系统生存能力的总机动时间、被发现概率、抗击成功率、被毁伤概率等各项指标的特点,在此基础上建立了用于研究该过程的数学模型,最后给出实例进行了仿真计算,通过对计算结果的分析,证明了该模型的有效性,从而为防空兵机动作战模拟提供了一定的参考.     

自行高炮武器系统机动生存能力建模评估

首先根据自行高炮武器系统的特点和功能,建立了自行高炮机动生存能力评估指标体系,然后根据自行机动能力的特点,建立了自行高炮武器系统的机动能力评估指标体系,运用层次分析法得出自行高炮的机动能力指数,并对武器系统抗毁伤、抗侦察、抗电磁干扰和防空拦截能力进行了量化,采用指数法建立自行高炮生存能力的综合指数评估模型.最后对某型自行高炮武器系统的生存能力进行了评估分析,验证了该模型的正确性.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Panjwai: a tale of two COINs in Afghanistan

The US Army has two approaches to counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan. One is hard, or combat-focused, and the other is soft, or development-focused. This study examines two US Army task forces deployed to Panjwai District, Afghanistan from 2012 to 2013. CTF 4-9 and 1-38 offer a meaningful comparison because they pursued these contrasting approaches among the same population and against the same enemy at the same time and place. The study compares each unit’s approach and finds that neither approach was successful absent the other. The article concludes by recommending further research into combining the approaches at the operational level.