基于机动识别的空战意图威胁建模与仿真

针对目前超视距空战态势评估模型的不足,改进了超视距情况下态势威胁的计算方法,建立了一种基于机动识别和态势预测的意图威胁模型。综合能力威胁、态势威胁、意图威胁和协同因子提出了一种新的空战威胁评估方法。基于机动识别和态势预测的意图威胁评估的结果较好地预测未来时刻敌机的运动,对未来时间内的潜在威胁进行估计,使我方能够准确地对敌做出目标分配。     

接敌前基于D-S理论的空战意图预测

接敌前是指敌机刚进入我方预警系统的探测范围(一般为400 km),并截获敌机,获得了敌机的运动参数,对敌机进行实时跟踪。为了完成对敌机目标意图的预测,为接敌前的自主决策打下基础,在D-S证据理论的基础上,选取合适的态势元素,分析各态势元素对敌机意图的影响,建立了目标意图预测模型,该模型具有一定的表达性和准确性。仿真实验表明,使用该模型能在敌机相距较远时以一定的准确性判断敌机的意图,实用性强,为接敌前基于意图预测的自主决策留出足够的时间。     

无人机协同空战中的目标威胁评估和目标分配算法

为适应变化的战场态势,研究了多无人机协同空战中的目标威胁评估算法和目标分配算法.利用一种新的计算方法对目标威胁矩阵进行确定,从而针对不同的空战态势进行威胁评估,以提高威胁评估的性能.利用所得到的威胁评估结果,采用基于态势的目标分配方法实现目标分配.所研究的目标分配算法不仅考虑敌机对我方威胁,同时还考虑了敌机的作战意图,使得我方能够实时准确的对敌做出目标分配.仿真结果表明所研究的算法能够完成多机空战中的目标威胁评估和目标分配,所研究的算法是有效的.     

无人机协同空战中的目标威胁评估和目标分配算法

为适应变化的战场态势,研究了多无人机协同空战中的目标威胁评估算法和目标分配算法.利用一种新的计算方法对目标威胁矩阵进行确定,从而针对不同的空战态势进行威胁评估,以提高威胁评估的性能.利用所得到的威胁评估结果,采用基于态势的目标分配方法实现目标分配.所研究的目标分配算法不仅考虑敌机对我方威胁,同时还考虑了敌机的作战意图,使得我方能够实时准确地对敌做出目标分配.仿真结果表明所研究的算法能够完成多机空战中的目标威胁评估和目标分配,所研究的算法是有效的.     

一种空中目标的不确定性威胁程度预测模型

目标威胁预测是对空态势和威胁估计的重要内容.针对空中目标飞行控制的基本特点,建立了基于经验公式的空中目标不确定性位置预测模型,进一步推导了不确定性威胁概率预测的模型和实用算法.仿真结果证明了模型的有效性,可用于多类空中目标意图推理及威胁判断.     

要地防空中目标威胁的未确知测度评价

本文在未确知测度理论基础上 ,针对防空作战中敌机威胁排序问题 ,建立了评价排序模型 ,并获得了较为成功的应用     

海上不明空情威胁评估模型研究

针对海上不明空情敌我属性、意图模糊及空情信息不确定的特点，依据贝叶斯网络算法，提出与不明空情相关的威胁因子及其状态，建立威胁评估模型，并运用专家知识及样本数据确定模型中的条件概率参数。最后通过对美国海军“Stark”案例进行仿真，结果证明该模型对海上不明空情能作出准确的威胁等级评估。     

基于K-Means聚类算法的空中态势威胁挖掘

战场环境复杂多样,各种探测手段层出不穷,空中威胁属性指标种类繁多,增大了指挥员对空中态势威胁分析难度。正确、快速地对空中态势进行威胁分析,将给战场部署提供有效的决策依据。建立基于K-Means聚类算法的空中目标威胁等级聚类模型,通过对空中目标威胁属性特征的数据进行分析,对威胁目标聚类进行深度挖掘,将目标威胁等级问题转化为最优聚类问题。实例分析表明该算法在对威胁目标等级聚类中有效,提高了目标威胁等级聚类的可靠性、精确性。     

敌机威胁估计模型初探

本文主要讨论了敌机威胁估计区域的确定及其算法,此模型以模糊数学和概率论方法为基础,以研究歼击轰炸机的威胁为对象,对决定敌机威胁程度的各种因素进行分析、整理,建立了估计敌机威胁程度的基本数学模型。此模型对从事C~3I 系统的工程技术人员具有一定的参考价值。     

空战中基于威胁评估的任务规划

根据空战作战计划的复杂性、实时性特点,提出了在威胁评估基础上动态进行空战任务规划以实现对战场的有效实时控制.首先建立了融合态势优势和空战效能指数优势的威胁评估模型,然后将感知到的战场态势信息作为威胁评估模型的输入,得到体现战场态势的优势矩阵,最后在此基础上进行攻击目标的分配.以目标分配的结果为根据就可以指导作战单位做出正确实时的决策.     

要地防空作战中空中目标威胁度估计的数学模型

为了准确有效地判断敌空中目标的威胁程度,运用层次-效用方法,对要地防空作战中空中目标威胁度建立数学模型。先用层次分析法建立影响因素诸指标的层次结构,然后导出指标因素的效用函数,对其加权和线性变换,得到目标威胁度。该模型使复杂的问题条理化,操作性强,便于计算机辅助决策,为防空指挥员对空情威胁做出正确判断提供了科学依据。     

基于神经网络和遗传算法对反装甲目标威胁度评估研究

针对威胁度估计问题和装甲车辆在战场上的实际情况,运用神经网络和遗传算法理论探索反装甲目标威胁度评估问题。基于BP神经网络模型的算法,利用神经网络良好的自适应能力和遗传算法强大的全局搜索能力,通过样本数据训练,提高了威胁度估计的准确性和适应性。经过验证该算法能够有效反应出反各种反装甲目标的威胁度,其稳定性、精确性也比较高。     

电子防空作战中雷达对抗目标威胁分析与评估

针对电子防空作战雷达对抗力量在指挥与运用中面临的目标威胁评定问题,首先从技术、战术、动态和静态等方面全面分析了雷达对抗目标的威胁因素,其次,运用可拓学的多目标优化理论和运筹学中的理想决策法的原理和方法,提出了一种新的基于物元矩阵的理想决策模型,最后,实例验证表明该模型可行、有效,便于计算机辅助决策,为雷达对抗目标威胁评估提供一种新途径,可为指挥员对空情威胁做出正确判断提供支持。     

模糊离散动态贝叶斯网络的目标威胁等级评估

动态贝叶斯网络作为一种智能推理工具在处理不确定推理问题中显示出强大的生命力,但是存在难于处理连续变量的推理问题。将模糊理论与动态贝叶斯网络相结合,提出一种模糊分类的方法,将连续变量模糊分类为动态贝叶斯网络能够应用的证据信息用于推理,并建立目标威胁等级评估模型,应用直接推理算法对该网络进行推理。仿真结果表明,该分类方法与动态贝叶斯网络结合能够很好地处理连续变量推理的问题。     

未来海上防空作战战场环境研究

战场环境对海上防空作战有着直接的影响,针对日益复杂的战场环境,从空中威胁环境、自然环境、电磁环境等方面深入分析了未来海上防空作战可能面临的战场环境及其对防空作战的影响,提出了未来海上防空武器和防空体系发展的几点建议。     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.