城市防空作战中空中目标威胁度估计模型

定性和定量结合,运用层次—效用方法建立城市防空作战中空中目标威胁度估计模型,先用层次分析的方法建立影响目标威胁度的诸指标因素的层次结构模型,然后导出指标因素的效用函数,最后计算出目标威胁度,使复杂的问题条理化,为防空作战指挥员对空情威胁作出正确判断提供科学依据,从而指导我防空部队的作战训练。     

一种空中红外多目标威胁度排序方法

针对红外序列图像中获取空中目标信息的特点,选取了威胁度排序所需的指标参数,并确定了各自的威胁隶属度函数。通过分析传统层次分析法中判断矩阵的构建和权重的变化,提出了一种改进的层次分析法用于多目标威胁度排序。该方法运用模糊判断矩阵的形式进行一致性处理,从而简化了一致性调整,为快速排序打下基础;同时,结合实际客观数据的变化进行修正各因素的权重,避免了排序过程中主观因素的偏差。试验计算结果表明,这种方法计算简单,主观因素干扰小,能真实反映目标的威胁程度,有利于辅助指挥员进行正确的决策。     

层次分析法在对潜多目标威胁度评估中的应用

针对潜艇行动隐蔽的主要特点,引入层次分析法来解决潜艇威胁度评估问题。以水面舰艇对潜作战为背景,对影响潜艇威胁度评估的六种属性进行分析,提出基于层次分析法的多目标潜艇威胁度评估模型。通过建立层次结构模型,构造判断矩阵,获取了六种属性的权重值,并进行实例计算演示了评估的过程。该方法可一定程度地解决对潜作战多目标威胁度评估和排序问题,提高水面舰艇对潜火力分配效率。     

反舰导弹威胁度的建模与仿真

现代海战中,对空防御已经成为水面舰艇防御的主要内容.对来袭空中目标的有效防御是建立在及时而正确的判断基础之上的,而对空中目标的威胁判断又是对空火力有效分配和积极防御的基础.考虑到执行各种作战任务的水面舰艇面临的空中威胁以反舰导弹为首要,通过选取合理的指标,建立基于模糊集合理论的水面舰艇对反舰导弹的威胁判断数学模型.     

基于空中目标态势和作战能力的威胁评估算法

对空中目标进行威胁评估和目标分配是阵地防空指挥中心的一项重要工作,威胁评估的准确性将对防空作战的结局产生重大的影响。提出了一种新的威胁评估算法,在综合考虑空中目标态势和作战能力的前提下,分析了影响目标威胁评估的几个因素,并结合装备的战斗性能建立各函数的威胁度隶属函数,求出目标威胁度和排序,最后给出软件流程。     

一种空中目标的不确定性威胁程度预测模型

目标威胁预测是对空态势和威胁估计的重要内容.针对空中目标飞行控制的基本特点,建立了基于经验公式的空中目标不确定性位置预测模型,进一步推导了不确定性威胁概率预测的模型和实用算法.仿真结果证明了模型的有效性,可用于多类空中目标意图推理及威胁判断.     

空袭目标威胁判断及作战使用

综合考虑影响目标威胁度的各种因素,利用模糊综合评判的思想,通过集值统计法确定各因素权重、指标连环法进行指标量化,建立了一种目标威胁判断的模型,并根据实际作战的要求,提出了使用此模型的方法和原则。利用该模型进行的实例计算结果与文献[2]提出的层次分析法计算结果进行了比较,说明了模型的可行性。     

基于K-Means聚类算法的空中态势威胁挖掘

战场环境复杂多样,各种探测手段层出不穷,空中威胁属性指标种类繁多,增大了指挥员对空中态势威胁分析难度。正确、快速地对空中态势进行威胁分析,将给战场部署提供有效的决策依据。建立基于K-Means聚类算法的空中目标威胁等级聚类模型,通过对空中目标威胁属性特征的数据进行分析,对威胁目标聚类进行深度挖掘,将目标威胁等级问题转化为最优聚类问题。实例分析表明该算法在对威胁目标等级聚类中有效,提高了目标威胁等级聚类的可靠性、精确性。     

不完全信息下目标威胁等级判断模型

针对目前威胁等级判断模型在目标属性值缺失时不能进行有效判断的问题,提出利用已知数据来等比例替代未知数据的方法,并且依据模糊识别算法建立威胁判断模型。此外,分析了影响空中目标威胁判断的指标,结合实例分析表明了该模型的实用性。     

灰色关联度分析法评判目标威胁度

分析了影响目标威胁度因素,并根据影响因素的特点,采用灰色关联度分析方法,建立了目标威胁度的数学模型,同时运用灰色关联度分析法对几组目标的威胁度进行了定量评判,计算结果和计算过程表明,这种方法计算简单,主观因素干扰小,能真实反映目标的威胁程度,有利于辅助指挥员进行正确的决策.     

基于无偏GM(1,1)幂模型的意图威胁建模

在态势威胁的基础上,利用无偏GM(1,1)幂模型设计了一种敌机意图威胁的模型。首先,提出了素质因子和探测概率因子,在此基础上,建立了改进的态势威胁模型。然后,将角度作为特征量对敌机机动进行预测,并建立了意图威胁模型。最后,分别对态势威胁和意图威胁模型进行仿真。结果表明,意图威胁模型行之有效。     

基于神经网络和遗传算法对反装甲目标威胁度评估研究

针对威胁度估计问题和装甲车辆在战场上的实际情况,运用神经网络和遗传算法理论探索反装甲目标威胁度评估问题。基于BP神经网络模型的算法,利用神经网络良好的自适应能力和遗传算法强大的全局搜索能力,通过样本数据训练,提高了威胁度估计的准确性和适应性。经过验证该算法能够有效反应出反各种反装甲目标的威胁度,其稳定性、精确性也比较高。     

电子防空作战中雷达对抗目标威胁分析与评估

针对电子防空作战雷达对抗力量在指挥与运用中面临的目标威胁评定问题,首先从技术、战术、动态和静态等方面全面分析了雷达对抗目标的威胁因素,其次,运用可拓学的多目标优化理论和运筹学中的理想决策法的原理和方法,提出了一种新的基于物元矩阵的理想决策模型,最后,实例验证表明该模型可行、有效,便于计算机辅助决策,为雷达对抗目标威胁评估提供一种新途径,可为指挥员对空情威胁做出正确判断提供支持。     

模糊离散动态贝叶斯网络的目标威胁等级评估

动态贝叶斯网络作为一种智能推理工具在处理不确定推理问题中显示出强大的生命力,但是存在难于处理连续变量的推理问题。将模糊理论与动态贝叶斯网络相结合,提出一种模糊分类的方法,将连续变量模糊分类为动态贝叶斯网络能够应用的证据信息用于推理,并建立目标威胁等级评估模型,应用直接推理算法对该网络进行推理。仿真结果表明,该分类方法与动态贝叶斯网络结合能够很好地处理连续变量推理的问题。     

未来海上防空作战战场环境研究

战场环境对海上防空作战有着直接的影响,针对日益复杂的战场环境,从空中威胁环境、自然环境、电磁环境等方面深入分析了未来海上防空作战可能面临的战场环境及其对防空作战的影响,提出了未来海上防空武器和防空体系发展的几点建议。     

An Unlikely Alliance: Portuguese and South African Airpower in Angola, 1968–1974

The war that Portugal was obliged to fight in Africa began in 1961 and immediately stretched the resources of its armed forces. Nowhere was this thinness more apparent than in policing the vast territory of Angola. The east and southeast of Angola were particularly vulnerable, as the area was a vast, sparsely populated region characterised by enormous featureless plains or chanas covered in tall grass and broken by an extensive river system and mountainous forests. The only military solution to policing these immense spaces was aviation and specifically the helicopter that could carry troops into battle, protect them with a gunship and bring them home when the operation was concluded. The immediate problem for the Portuguese Air Force (Força Aérea Portuguesa or FAP) in Angola and elsewhere was a scarcity of helicopters. The solution was an alliance with South Africa, which had a strong inventory of Alouette IIIs, to help in policing the east. This move was likewise in the interest of South Africa, as its threat came from Zambia through south-eastern Angola. This article examines the strategic and tactical development of this unusual, cross-cultural alliance and the symbiotic relationship that resulted in destruction of the enemies of both in Angola.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

国内外结构钢焊条研究的现状与发展

本文主要介绍了国外焊条的现状和发展趋势,包括焊条的高韧性、高效率、低尘低毒和耐吸潮性能,为国内的焊条研究提供了参考依据。     

A Sign of Victory?: ‘Scottish Swords’ and Other Weapons in the Possession of the ‘Auld Innemie’

Many late medieval documents, notably inventories of arms and armour, of Englishmen contain references to ‘Scottish swords’ and other weapons. What did the compilers of these documents mean when they described a weapon as ‘Scottish’? How did such weapons come to be in the possession of these men? This article will attempt to explain this phenomenon drawing on primary documentary sources and surviving material culture from Glasgow Museums’ collections and others, as well as artworks from the period.