深潜器援潜救生作业综合安全评估

针对深潜器援潜救生作业中的安全性问题,根据综合安全评估方法的基本原理,建立了基于语言值变量和模糊概率的援潜救生作业安全评估模型.该模型首先利用专家语言值初评作业系统的风险,再对风险较大的主要影响事件进行过程分析和模糊故障树分析,并采取合理的措施保证其安全,很好地解决了作业过程中统计数据少、“一次性事件”较多以及决策时间...     

Vague故障树的NMOHEMS机载单元模糊可靠性分析

分析了NMOHEMS机载单元进行可靠分析的重要性。概念设计阶段,故障树分析方法不能解决系统可靠性数据的模糊性和匮乏性问题,提出将Vague集理论和专家评估模式引入到故障树分析中,建立了系统的Vague模糊故障树。专家使用三角形Vague集评估底事件的模糊可靠性,评估过程中使用模糊隶属度区间而不是单变量隶属度描述事件的模糊性。最后,基于顶事件的发生概率和底事件模糊重要度的分析结果,提出了广义可靠性优化设计方案。设计结果表明:提出的方法提高了可靠性设计和分析的效率。     

基于故障树分析的航空装备体系结构贡献率评估方法

针对航空装备体系构成复杂的特点,将故障树分析引入航空装备体系结构贡献率评估问题,提出基于故障树分析的评估方法。从作战装备、信息支援装备和保障装备三个方面构建航空装备体系结构,建造航空装备体系结构故障树;采用底事件的关键重要度指标来计算航空装备的体系结构贡献率,建立基于关键重要度的航空装备体系结构贡献率评估模型;以某航空装备体系为例进行建模分析。分析结果表明:所提方法能够准确评估航空装备体系结构贡献率,为确定航空装备体系结构短板、优化航空装备体系结构等提供方法支撑。     

模糊故障树分析方法在机场环境安全中的应用

采用故障树分析法,对引起鸟击飞机的各个因素进行系统分析,并建立了故障树.通过定性分析,可得引起顶事件发生的2580个最小割集.采用专家判断和模糊集理论相结合的方法,评估故障树底事件发生概率的模糊性,并以"垃圾堆对鸟的吸引"这一底事件为例,计算出其模糊失效率.通过定量分析,计算出顶事件的发生概率为0.00241,同时可计算各底事件的重要度.     

基于动态故障树的航空装备系统可靠性评估方法

为分析复杂航空装备系统的可靠性,提出了基于动态故障树的航空装备系统可靠性评估方法。在传统故障树基础上,引入动态逻辑门,构建系统的动态故障树模型。将动态故障树模块化为独立的静态子树和动态子树,并采用马尔科夫模型进行求解,通过综合分析得到系统失效的概率。运用构建的动态故障树模型,对航空电子系统的可靠性进行了分析和评估,验证了动态故障树用于航空装备系统可靠性评估的有效性和可行性。     

土质边坡工程风险分析

扼要地阐述了边坡工程事故引发的原因和边坡工程体系包含的不确定因素,从自然、社会、经济、管理等方面对这些因素进行了归纳,介绍了安全评估的故障树分析法以及由顶事件概率求底事件概率的计算公式.从技术的角度对土质开挖边坡工程体系进行了研究,建立了边坡工程故障树模型以及在此模型下边坡工程风险事件发生概率Pf的计算方法.在求解风险损失的过程中分析了传统专家调查法存在的不足,从而提出改进的专家调查法.通过工程实例,定性和定量地对边坡工程风险进行了分析,利用风险分级体系对风险的大小进行评价,为边坡工程风险管理提供了一定的依据.     

故障树近似计算中最优权因子的选取

在故障树近似计算时,探讨通过加权提高计算准确度的简便方法。根据底事件发生概率的不同,利用VisualC 语言进行蒙特卡罗仿真计算,得到了在近似计算故障树顶事件发生概率时,在不同底事件发生概率对应区间内的最优权因子。利用该方法得到的最优权因子可以提高故障树近似计算的准确度,尤其是在当底事件发生概率较大时,其效果更为明显,可较好地满足采用故障树对某些特殊设备进行顶事件发生概率计算时提高计算精度的需求。     

埋地输油管道杂散电流腐蚀故障树分析

采用故障树分析方法,对造成埋地输油管道杂散电流腐蚀的因素进行系统分析;以29个基本事件为基础,构建埋地输油管道杂散电流腐蚀故障树。在定性分析中,采用Fussel Vesely法求解得到192个3阶最小割集。在定量分析中,采用专家判断和模糊集理论相结合的方法,计算各基本事件的发生概率,进而求得故障树顶事件的发生概率为3.386×10-4。并以基本事件"保护方式选择不当"为例,按照专家评估、确定权重、将自然语言转化为模糊数、转化为模糊可能性值、转化为模糊失效率5个步骤,求得其模糊失效概率为8.430×10-4。计算得到各基本事件的关键重要度,结果表明,土壤电阻率等8个基本事件具有较大的关键重要度。     

基于多状态故障树的舰船装备可靠性分析方法

为分析舰船装备的系统和单元部件介于正常和故障之间的中间过渡状态,结合实际工作情况,提出了一种基于多状态故障树的可靠性分析方法。以舰船电力系统为例,将传统故障树模型的底层事件布尔单元改进为可维修的三态（正常、劳损降级和故障）单元部件;结合智能体董正琼技术建立该多状态故障树仿真模型,各事件之间的从属关系采用抽象映射进行描述;通过多次蒙特卡洛仿真运行,根据各底事件发生概率定量计算出电力系统的可靠度统计值为99.624%,在一定程度上验证了所提可靠性分析方法的可行性。     

基于故障树的系统安全风险实时监测方法

当前的安全性分析方法大都属于预先安全性分析方法,即在系统使用前对系统进行安全性分析。但系统的动态特性,如组成部件工作状态的动态变化,使系统的安全性呈现实时变化。为研究系统的实时安全风险,提出了一种基于故障树的实时安全风险监测方法。该方法用故障树表示系统结构,建立系统安全风险评估模型,根据系统的技术状态参数与系统组件工作状态的对应关系,实时对系统的安全风险进行监测;并根据安全风险监测的情况,对安全风险变化原因做出解释,做到防患于未然。用一个具有前馈控制冷却系统的例子演示了该方法的有效性。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.