体系对抗仿真建模中的网络模型与交互模型相关问题研究

从信息化战争体系对抗模拟仿真的EBI模型体系出发,界定了体系对抗的网络模型和交互模型的概念,探讨了网络模型和交互模型的建模内容,分析了利用网络模型和交互模型表现体系对抗复杂性的途径,并在探讨体系对抗仿真网络模型和交互模型的关系和相互作用的基础上,提出了一种基于ABM建模方法构建体系对抗网络模型和交互模型的研究设想.     

汉江大跨越输电模型塔试验研究

为了深入探索模型塔动力特性,以汉江大跨越塔为原型,按照动力相似理论制作了模型塔.试验采用施加突卸荷载的方法使模型产生自由振动,获取模型动力参数.结果表明,模型前两阶固有频率满足相似要求,模型设计合理.为更好地研究模型塔动力特性,在模型塔动力测试基础上,建立了模型塔有限元模型,对测试结果与模态分析结果进行了比较,提出了模...     

可修复型备件满足率的适用方案研究

在离散状态空间的马尔科夫过程的基础上,对可修复型备件满足率模型进行了研究,分析了经典的保障概率模型在装备综合保障过程中所存在的弊端,在增加备件维修次数阈值条件的基础上对模型进行改进后得到了一种新的可修复型备件满足率模型。在备件数量较少(等于1时)的情况下,与经典模型对比,该模型的符合程度较好;当备件数量较多时(大于1时),设计了在ExtendSim仿真软件环境下的仿真模型,并用仿真模型来检验改进后备件满足率模型的正确性,通过对比分析表明:该改进的备件满足率模型能较好地评估可修复型备件满足率指标,相比经典模型和仿真模型,避免了复杂耗时的运算过程,能够方便而且高效地运用于装备综合保障任务当中。     

坦克嵌入式车场射击训练炮长操纵控制模型

在嵌入式射击模拟训练系统中,针对炮长操作过程对模拟训练的影响,建立了炮长操纵控制模型。炮长操纵控制模型包括炮长操纵模型和炮长射击决策模型。炮长操纵模型的建立是基于装备的物理模型和人的生理反应模型。炮长射击决策模型根据坦克射击教范要求,采用与/或正向演绎推理得到。在炮长操纵控制模型基础上,建立了射击反应时间模型,并与实际装备操作进行了比较,对建立的操纵控制模型进行了验证。     

面向控制的电控单体泵柴油机仿真

为拓宽电控单元硬件在环仿真应用范围,进行了电控单体泵柴油机建模仿真。提出了面向控制的电控柴油机建模的要求和模型选择,在Matlab/Simulink中,建立了柴油机简化非线性模型以及电控单体泵系统模型,模型验证表明所建的柴油机模型具有较好的准确性;以计算时间和计算参数为衡量指标,分析和对比了不同的计算步长和计算方法对模型计算结果的影响;进行了实例模型应用试验,结果表明模型能实时准确地满足ECU硬件在环仿真要求。     

旋转燃烧室雾化燃烧过程的数值模拟

针对燃烧室在设计过程中的纯经验状态,在建立了燃烧室物理数学模型的基础上,利用Fluent软件对旋转燃烧室单组元喷雾燃烧过程在不同转速下分别进行仿真模拟,湍流模型采用标准双方程模型,燃烧模型采用涡耗散(ED)模型,辐射模型选用p-1模型,液滴通过离散项模型来定义.通过模拟,得到了合理的气相的速度场、温度场、浓度场,为燃烧室的结构优化提供了必要的依据,从而缩小了燃烧室体积,增强了燃烧室性能.     

流编程模型下的存储一致性模型

在流编程模型下建立了一个新的存储一致性模型--流一致性模型,它比传统的释放一致性模型更加松弛.讨论了流一致性模型对程序设计和系统设计的要求,给出了一个正确的系统实现,并且指出流一致性模型的编程和实现并不比现有的一致性模型复杂.     

飞机结构疲劳可靠度贝叶斯组合预测

在实际工程中,常常需要利用模型去描述和分析问题。然而模型亦存在不确定性,即可能存在多个描述同一现象的模型,例如多个疲劳分析的模型。针对飞机结构的疲劳可靠性问题,提出在考虑三种裂纹扩展模型下基于贝叶斯公式的疲劳可靠度组合预测方法。针对不同应力水平下飞机结构试件的裂纹扩展数据建立了三种随机裂纹扩展模型;在考虑模型参数不确定性条件下,采用贝叶斯模型平均方法对三种模型进行组合;基于组合模型分析结构的可靠度。所提方法在分析飞机结构疲劳可靠度上,采用了组合模型,能够最大限度保障结果的稳定性。此外,考虑了模型参数的不确定性,能够得到更为合理的裂纹扩展预测分布和可靠度预测值。给出的实例及分析结果表明所提方法可行。     

UML在水下输送艇指挥控制系统分析中的应用

在对水下输送艇指挥控制系统进行需求描述的基础上,遵循统一建模语言UML系统分析的一般过程,分别建立了系统的用例模型、静态模型、行为模型、交互模型和实现模型,并对所建模型逐一进行了测试,测试结果表明了该模型建立的正确性,为下一步系统软件的设计和实现奠定了基础。     

仿真元模型及其在军事领域的应用

本文在简要说明仿真元模型出现的背景后,给出了仿真元模型的概念及一般的建立过程,并 对仿真元模型研究的主要问题进行了说明,最后重点介绍了仿真元模型在军事领域的主要应用研究。     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.