Estimating reliability of components with increasing failure rate using series system data

The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for a distribution function with increasing failure rate is derived, based on a collection of series system data. Applications can arise in industries where operating environments make available only such system-level data, due to system configuration or type-II censoring. The estimator can be solved using isotonic regression. For the special case in which systems contain one component, the estimator is equivalent to the restricted maximum likelihood estimator of Marshall and Proschan [9]. The MLE is illustrated using emergency diesel generator failure data from the nuclear industry. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 115–123, 1998     

Estimating failure time distribution and its parameters based on intermediate data from a Wiener degradation model

Instead of measuring a Wiener degradation or performance process at predetermined time points to track degradation or performance of a product for estimating its lifetime, we propose to obtain the first‐passage times of the process over certain nonfailure thresholds. Based on only these intermediate data, we obtain the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and uniformly most accurate confidence interval for the mean lifetime. For estimating the lifetime distribution function, we propose a modified maximum likelihood estimator and a new estimator and prove that, by increasing the sample size of the intermediate data, these estimators and the above‐mentioned estimator of the mean lifetime can achieve the same levels of accuracy as the estimators assuming one has failure times. Thus, our method of using only intermediate data is useful for highly reliable products when their failure times are difficult to obtain. Furthermore, we show that the proposed new estimator of the lifetime distribution function is more accurate than the standard and modified maximum likelihood estimators. We also obtain approximate confidence intervals for the lifetime distribution function and its percentiles. Finally, we use light‐emitting diodes as an example to illustrate our method and demonstrate how to validate the Wiener assumption during the testing. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

On estimating the scale parameter of the exponential distribution with a known linear relation between the location and the scale parameter

In this article we study the estimation of the average excess life θ in a two-parameter exponential distribution with a known linear relationship between α (the minimum life) and θ of the form α = aθ, where a is known and positive. A comparison of the efficiencies of estimators which are linear combinations of the smallest sample value and the sample sum of deviations from the smallest sample value and the maximum likelihood estimators is made for various sample sizes and different values of a. It is shown that these estimators are dominated in the risk by the minimum-risk scale equivariant estimator based on sufficient statistics. A class of Bayes estimators for inverted gamma priors is constructed and shown to include a minimum-risk scale equivariant estimator in it. All the members of this class can be computed easily.     

An M/M/1 queue with a general bulk service rule

A model of an M/M/1, bulk queue with service rates dependent on the batch size is developed. The operational policy is to commence service when at least L customers are available with a maximum batch size of K. Arriving customers are not allowed to join in-process service. The solution procedure utilizes the matrix geometric methodology and reduces to obtaining the inverse of a square matrix of dimension K + 1 - L. For the case where the service rates are not batch size dependent, the limiting probabilities can be written in closed form. A numerical example illustrates the variability of the system cost as a function of the minimum batch service size L.     

Optimal admission pricing policies for M/Ek/1 queues

This paper extends the Low-Lippman M/M/1 model to the case of Gamma service times. Specifically, we have a queue in which arrivals are Poisson, service time is Gamma-distributed, and the arrival rate to the system is subject to setting an admission fee p. The arrival rate λ(p) is non-increasing in p. We prove that the optimal admission fee p^* is a non-decreasing function of the customer work load on the server. The proof is for an infinite capacity queue and holds for the infinite horizon continuous time Markov decision process. In the special case of exponential service time, we extend the Low-Lippman model to include a state-dependent service rate and service cost structure (for finite or infinite time horizon and queue capacity). Relatively recent dynamic programming techniques are employed throughout the paper. Due to the large class of functions represented by the Gamma family, the extension is of interest and utility.     

Exact likelihood inference for the exponential distribution under generalized Type‐I and Type‐II hybrid censoring

Chen and Bhattacharyya [Exact confidence bounds for an exponential parameter under hybrid censoring, Commun Statist Theory Methods 17 (1988), 1857–1870] considered a hybrid censoring scheme and obtained the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean of an exponential distribution along with an exact lower confidence bound. Childs et al. [Exact likelihood inference based on Type‐I and Type‐II hybrid censored samples from the exponential distribution, Ann Inst Statist Math 55 (2003), 319–330] recently derived an alternative simpler expression for the distribution of the MLE. These authors also proposed a new hybrid censoring scheme and derived similar results for the exponential model. In this paper, we propose two generalized hybrid censoring schemes which have some advantages over the hybrid censoring schemes already discussed in the literature. We then derive the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator as well as exact confidence intervals for the mean of the exponential distribution under these generalized hybrid censoring schemes. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Optimum step‐stress accelerated life test plans for log‐location‐scale distributions

This article presents new tools and methods for finding optimum step‐stress accelerated life test plans. First, we present an approach to calculate the large‐sample approximate variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of a quantile of the failure time distribution at use conditions from a step‐stress accelerated life test. The approach allows for multistep stress changes and censoring for general log‐location‐scale distributions based on a cumulative exposure model. As an application of this approach, the optimum variance is studied as a function of shape parameter for both Weibull and lognormal distributions. Graphical comparisons among test plans using step‐up, step‐down, and constant‐stress patterns are also presented. The results show that depending on the values of the model parameters and quantile of interest, each of the three test plans can be preferable in terms of optimum variance. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Parametric inference for component distributions from lifetimes of systems with dependent components

In system reliability analysis, for an n ‐component system, the estimation of the performance of the components in the system is not straightforward in practice, especially when the components are dependent. Here, by assuming the n components in the system to be identically distributed with a common distribution belonging to a scale‐family and the dependence structure between the components being known, we discuss the estimation of the lifetime distributions of the components in the system based on the lifetimes of systems with the same structure. We develop a general framework for inference on the scale parameter of the component lifetime distribution. Specifically, the method of moments estimator (MME) and the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) are derived for the scale parameter, and the conditions for the existence of the MLE are also discussed. The asymptotic confidence intervals for the scale parameter are also developed based on the MME and the MLE. General simulation procedures for the system lifetime under this model are described. Finally, some examples of two‐ and three‐component systems are presented to illustrate all the inferential procedures developed here. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

Optimal admission pricing and service rate control of an M[x]/M/s queue with reneging

In this article we consider the optimal control of an M^[X]/M/s queue, s ≧ 1. In addition to Poisson bulk arrivals we incorporate a reneging function. Subject to control are an admission price p and the service rate μ. Thus, through p, balking response is induced. When i customers are present a cost h(i,μ,p) per unit time is incurred, discounted continuously. Formulated as a continuous time Markov decision process, conditions are given under which the optimal admission price and optimal service rate are each nondecreasing functions of i. In Section 4 we indicate how the infinite state space may be truncated to a finite state space for computational purposes.     

Peak rate of occurrence of a poisson process

Suppose that a nonhomogeneous Poisson process is observed for a length of time T, say Let λ (t) denote the mean value function of the process. It is assumed that λ (t) is first increasing then decreasing inside the interval (0, T) with peak at t = t₀, say. Three methods are given for estimating to. One of these methods is nonparametric, and the other two methods are based on the standard regression technique and the maximum likelihood principle The given resull has application in a problem of determining the azimuth of a target from the radar-impulse data. The time series of incoming signals may be approximated by the occurrence of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with mean value function λ (t). The azimuth of the target is reasonably determined from the direction of the axis of the radar beam at the instant to, corresponding to the peak value of λ (t).     

Estimation in single server queues

Moment and maximum likelihood estimates (m.l.e.'s) arc investigated for nonparametric and parametric models for a single server queue observed over a random time horizon, namely, up to the nth departure epoch. Also. m.l.e's of the mean interarrival time and mean service time in anM/M/1 queue observed over a fixed time-interval are studied Limit distributions of these estimates are obtained Without imposing steady state assumptions on the queue-size or waiting time processes.     

Distribution network design: Selection and sizing of congested connections

This paper focuses on certain types of distribution networks in which commodity flows must go through connections that are subject to congestion. Connections serve as transshipment and/or switching points and are modeled as M/G/1 queues. The goal is to select connections, assign flows to the connections, and size their capacities, simultaneously. The capacities are controlled by both the mean and the variability of service time at each connection. We formulate this problem as a mixed integer nonlinear optimization problem for both the fixed and variable service rate cases. For the fixed service rate case, we prove that the objective function is convex and then develop an outer approximation algorithm. For the variable service rate case, both mean and second moment of service time are decision variables. We establish that the utilization rates at the homogeneous connections are identical for an optimal solution. Based on this key finding, we develop a Lagrangian relaxation algorithm. Numerical experiments are conducted to verify the quality of the solution techniques proposed. The essential contribution of this work is the explicit modeling of connection capacity (through the mean and the variability of service time) using a queueing framework. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

Solution of minisum and minimax location–allocation problems with Euclidean distances

A new method for the solution of minimax and minisum location–allocation problems with Euclidean distances is suggested. The method is based on providing differentiable approximations to the objective functions. Thus, if we would like to locate m service facilities with respect to n given demand points, we have to minimize a nonlinear unconstrained function in the 2m variables x₁,y₁, ?,x_m,y_m. This has been done very efficiently using a quasi-Newton method. Since both the original problems and their approximations are neither convex nor concave, the solutions attained may be only local minima. Quite surprisingly, for small problems of locating two or three service points, the global minimum was reached even when the initial position was far from the final result. In both the minisum and minimax cases, large problems of locating 10 service facilities among 100 demand points have been solved. The minima reached in these problems are only local, which is seen by having different solutions for different initial guesses. For practical purposes, one can take different initial positions and choose the final result with best values of the objective function. The likelihood of the best results obtained for these large problems to be close to the global minimum is discussed. We also discuss the possibility of extending the method to cases in which the costs are not necessarily proportional to the Euclidean distances but may be more general functions of the demand and service points coordinates. The method also can be extended easily to similar three-dimensional problems.     

基于星座图恢复的MQAM信号调制方式识别算法*

针对MQAM信号调制方式的识别问题,提出了一种基于星座图恢复的算法。该算法首先估计信号载频及信噪比等参数,并依据波特率和符号定时完成对接收信号的波特率采样。随后采用一种非判决辅助载频偏差估计方法,以消除载频偏差及相位偏移对星座图恢复的影响。最后利用平均似然比检测的方法,完成MQAM信号调制方式的识别。仿真结果表明,与仅考虑信号幅值分布的极大似然算法相比,该算法具有更优的识别性能。     

On estimating population characteristics from record-breaking observations. i. parametric results

Consider an experiment in which only record-breaking values (e.g., values smaller than all previous ones) are observed. The data available may be represented as X₁,K₁,X₂,K₂, …, where X₁,X₂, … are successive minima and K₁,K₂, … are the numbers of trials needed to obtain new records. We treat the problem of estimating the mean of an underlying exponential distribution, and we consider both fixed sample size problems and inverse sampling schemes. Under inverse sampling, we demonstrate certain global optimality properties of an estimator based on the “total time on test” statistic. Under random sampling, it is shown than an analogous estimator is consistent, but can be improved for any fixed sample size.     

Estimating component characteristics from system failure‐time data

Suppose that failure times are available from a random sample of N systems of a given, fixed design with components which have i.i.d. lifetimes distributed according to a common distribution F. The inverse problem of estimating F from data on observed system lifetimes is considered. Using the known relationship between the system and component lifetime distributions via signature and domination theory, the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator _N(t) of the component survival function (t) is identified and shown to be accessible numerically in any application of interest. The asymptotic distribution of _N(t) is also identified, facilitating the construction of approximate confidence intervals for (t) for N sufficiently large. Simulation results for samples of size N = 50 and N = 100 for a collection of five parametric lifetime models demonstrate the utility of the recommended estimator. Possible extensions beyond the i.i.d. framework are discussed in the concluding section. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Analysis of data from life-test experiments under an exponential model

This paper discusses situations in which the distribution of a lifetime response variable T is taken to depend upon a vector x of regressor variables. We specifically consider the case in which T, given x , has an exponential distribution, and in which x represents levels of fixed factors in an experimental design. Methods of analyzing data under this type of model are discussed, with maximum likelihood and least squares methods being presented and compared.     

Testing goodness of fit to the increasing failure rate family

One branch of the reliability literature is concerned with devising statistical procedures with various nonparametric “restricted family” model assumptions because of the potential improved operating characteristics of such procedures over totally nonparametric ones. In the single-sample problem with unknown increasing failure rate (IFR) distribution F, (1) maximum-likelihood estimators of F have been calculated, (2) upper or lower tolerance limits for F have been determined, and (3) tests of the null hypothesis that F is exponential have been constructed. Barlow and Campo proposed graphical methods for assessing goodness of fit to the IFR model when the validity of this assumption is unknown. This article proposes several analytic tests of the IFR null hypothesis based on the maximum distance and area between the cumulative hazard function and its greatest convex minorant (GCM), and the maximum distance and area between the total time on test statistic and its GCM. A table of critical points is provided to implement a specific test having good overall power properties.     

Analysis of production lines with Coxian service times and no intermediate buffers

This paper uses the holding time model (HTM) method to derive an approximate analytic formula for the calculation of the mean throughput of a K-station production line with no buffers between any two successive stations. Service times follow the two-stage Coxian (C²) distribution at all stations. The paper provides a formula that relates the third moment of the service completion (or virtual service) time with the respective parameters of the service time, the repair time and the time to breakdown (the latter is assumed to follow the exponential distribution). In this way, it concludes that under certain conditions the two-stage Coxian distribution can be used to approximate any general distribution matching the first three moments of the service completion time distribution. The mean holding times (consisting of the service and blocking periods) of all stations of the line are obtained in an analytical form. Numerical results are provided for the mean throughput of lines with up to 20 stations. These results are shown to have a good accuracy compared against results obtained from the Markovian state method (for short lines) and results from simulation (for longer lines). © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 669–685, 1998     

Customer delays in M/M/c repair systems with spares

A service center to which customers bring failed items for repair is considered. The items are exchangeable in the sense that a customer is ready to take in return for the failed item he brought to the center any good item of the same kind. This exchangeability feature makes it possible for the service center to possess spares. The focus of the article is on customer delay in the system—the time that elapses since the arrival of a customer with a failed item and his departure with a good one—when repaired items are given to waiting customers on a FIFO basis. An algorithm is developed for the computation of the delay distribution when the item repair system operates as an M/M/c queue.