Development and conflict in the Balkans: Catch-up and military expenditure

This paper analyses the convergence between countries in relation to the catch-up hypothesis concerning the level of total productivity. The catch-up hypothesis claims that poor countries tend to grow faster than rich countries through the international diffusion of knowledge and technology. We test this hypothesis for the Balkan countries and investigate the effect of military expenditure in the region on productivity growth. The aim is to investigate empirically whether productivity growth has been greater in countries with lower military expenditure, in line with theory. The results obtained show that, overall, improvements in technological change co-exist with deteriorating technical efficiency change and that there is a negative correlation between military expenditure and either total productivity growth and technological change, and a positive, but statistically insignificant, relationship with technical efficiency change. We conclude that economic growth is the key to regional development and that too great a diversion of resources to military commitments can lead to overstretch.     

NON‐LINEARITY IN THE DEFENCE EXPENDITURE – ECONOMIC GROWTH RELATIONSHIP IN TAIWAN

As we enter the 21st Century, technologies originally developed for defense purposes such as computers and satellite communications appear to have become a driving force behind economic growth in the United States. Paradoxically, almost all previous econometric models suggest that the largely defense‐oriented federal industrial R&;D funding that helped create these technologies had no discernible effect on U.S. industrial productivity growth. This paper addresses this paradox by stressing that defense procurement as well as federal R&;D expenditures were targeted to a few narrowly defined manufacturing sub‐sectors that produced high tech weaponry. Analysis employing data from the NBER Manufacturing Productivity Database and the BEA’ s Input Output tables then demonstrates that defense procurement policies did have significant effects on the productivity performance of disaggregated manufacturing industries because of a process of procurement‐driven technological change.     

Country survey IX: Spain

From the early 1980s Spain embarked on a wide‐ranging process of military reform, from organisational changes to defence industrial policies. Investment in military equipment was set to grow, policies were drawn up to foster the domestic defence industrial base, defence R&D rocketed, and Spain joined a myriad of international arms development programmes. Yet, by 1991 the process of reform had run out of steam. Expenditure planning proved unreliable, and firms suffered from sharp cutbacks in procurement expenditure. The model of defence industrial growth sketched in the mid‐1980s had floundered. The Spanish case provides an example of how the quest to maximise defence procurement from domestic sources can fall victim to industrial and budgetary constraints. Spanish defence producers are now becoming increasingly intertwined with foreign defence companies.     

战疫视角下区块链推动应急物流发展研究

应急物流是应对突发事件的重要支撑,也在此次抗击疫情中发挥了重要作用。区块链技术的特点与应急物流有许多内在的契合点,有利于推动实现高效、可信、智能化的保障,提升应急物流建设水平,助力疫情防控与应急管理。本文基于疫情防控物资保障视角,着眼保障过程、信任机制和运行特点,采取理论论证与案例结合、技术分析与应用结合的方法,论证区块链在推动应急物流实现高效保障、信任治理和智能运行方面的现实应用和预期效果,并结合抗击疫情的现实提出相关对策建议,推动区块链技术在应急物流领域的创新应用,助力应急物流的高效保障、信任治理和智能运行,提升应急物资供应保障效率、信任治理水平和智能化程度。     

未来作战中装甲机械化部队技术保障刍议

在分析高技术局部战争中装甲机械化部队技术保障特点的基础上,就技术保障准备、编组等问题进行了探讨,提出了提高战时技术保障时效性、机动性和生存能力的若干措施.     

能源互联网在军事能源转型中的作用

能源互联网是第三次工业革命的重要支柱,是关系到国家经济和产业发展转型的一种战略型技术。文章首先阐述了军事能源转型面临的挑战和要求,探讨了美国在军事能源转型中的主要做法和启示,从理念和技术两方面分析了能源互联网在推动军事能源转型中将发挥的作用。     

战场电磁态势融合感知技术框架研究?

为了高效精确感知现代战场条件下的电磁态势，分析了战场电磁态势感知的需求，研究了基于高层信息融合的电磁态势融合感知技术框架。战场电磁态势融合感知技术框架面向异构信息综合处理和融合模型柔性控制，基于电磁实体序列识别形成观测态势，基于作战行动企图估计形成估计态势，基于电磁威胁预测评估形成预测态势，构建现代战场综合电磁态势图。研究表明基于融合理论的战场电磁态势融合感知技术框架具有适应性强、高效精确的特点。     

MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper tests the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth by including the impact of the share of military and civilian components of government expenditure in an economic growth model with endogenous technology. In this framework, we empirically consider the hypothesis of a non‐linear effect of military expenditure on economic growth. Differences between the costs and benefits of the defence sector has traditionally explained the non‐linear relationship suggesting that shocks to insecurity may also be a source of non‐linearity as they determine a re‐allocative effect within government expenditure. While parametric partial correlations are in line with empirical findings, the robustness of estimations is tested by using a non‐parametric approach. The negative relationship between military expenditure and growth in countries with high levels of military burden predicted by theory becomes significant only after including a proxy for re‐allocative effects in the growth equation.     

MILITARY SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SOUTH ASIA: COMMENT AND RECONSIDERATION

In a recent paper in this journal, Wijewerra and Webb study the connection between military spending and gross domestic product (GDP) in a group of five South Asian countries, finding a small but statistically significant positive relationship between military spending and GDP. This paper reviews their approach and proposes an alternative which tries to deal with the problems of omitted variables and variable construction. It finds, in contrast, that a higher share of military spending in GDP is associated with lower growth of GDP per capita.     

SOCIAL PREFERENCES FOR NATIONAL DEFENCE AND POLICE ENFORCEMENT IN WESTERN EUROPE

We study the determinants of social preferences for national defence and for police and law enforcement. For this task, we estimate a bivariate ordered probit model for a set of European countries (France, Finland, Norway, Portugal, Spain and Sweden) in 2006. Determinants of spending decisions for defence and police are found to be linked but are of significantly different magnitudes. Besides, measures against terrorist threats are positively linked to police and defence spending increases, while the subjective perception of fiscal pressure has no influence. Finally, no significant differences are found between Northern and Southern Europe.     

Decapitation,disruption, and unintended consequences in counterterrorism: lessons from Islamist terror networks in Spain

This study examines the unintended consequences of decapitation strategies. Two Islamist terror networks in Spain have been used to critically evaluate theories of leadership removal guided by large-N cross-sectional research. Arguably, current models neglect to include relational variables that constitute the foundation for policies of network disruption. Spanish terror networks are mapped out over a 10-year period (1995–2004) to demonstrate the importance of network variables. Policies meant to disrupt militant networks can generate unintended consequences, as was the case with Spain’s Operation Dátil following the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon in the United States. The Madrid train bombing network developed in the vacant political space following the counterterrorism operation that targeted radical Islamists in Spain.     

军品能力建设项目后的一种评价方法

由于军品的特殊性,其后评价标准与其他民品项目有所不同,根据军品技改项目的特点结合一般项目后评价内容,确定了军品技改项目后评价指标体系,共分为项目目标评价、项目实施管理评价、项目生产运营评价、项目生产力评价、项目经营效益评价、项目影响评价和项目持续性评价等7部分25个指标小项,并采用层次灰色法建立了军品技改项目后评价模型,为客观科学地进行军品技改项目的后评价提供了依据.     

一种锥比率数据包络分析模型及有关结论

本文研究一种锥比率数据包络分析模型,它既能反映各项输入或输出的相对重要性和对某些决策单元的偏好,又可单纯地评价决策单元间的相对技术有效性。本文着重讨论这一模型的DEA有效性与多目标规划非支配解的关系以及有效决策单元的存在性等问题,论证了有关结论。     

基于DEA-Tobit的上市军工企业融资效率研究

为评估上市军工企业的融资效率,找出影响其融资效率的关键因素,建立将数据包络分析法和Tobit回归分析法有机结合的计量模型。文章依据上市军工企业融资效率的特点,构建评估指标体系,利用DEA方法测算出相对效率值,并选用Tobit模型对可能影响融资效率的因素进行实证研究。结果表明,目前我国上市军工企业的融资效率普遍不高,企业治理结构、资金利用率、偿债能力的提升对改进企业的融资效率有促进作用,但股权融资会抑制企业融资效率的提高。     

设立消防服务中介机构之探讨

随着行政体制改革的深入,将公安消防机构部分技术监督职能转移到中介服务机构,有助于消防工作水平的整体提高。构想了消防服务中介机构的概念、业务范围、法律性质、设立条件、运行模式等,探讨了在运行中可能出现的问题及对策。     

MODELS OF MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND GROWTH: A CRITICAL REVIEW

This paper reviews some of the theoretical and econometric issues involved in estimating growth models that include military spending. While the mainstream growth literature has not found military expenditure to be a significant determinant of growth, much of the defence economics literature has found significant effects. The paper argues that this is largely the product of the particular specification, the Feder–Ram model, that has been used in the defence economics literature but not in the mainstream literature. The paper critically evaluates this model, detailing its problems and limitations and suggests that it should be avoided. It also critically evaluates two alternative theoretical approaches, the Augmented Solow and the Barro models, suggesting that they provide a more promising avenue for future research. It concludes with some general comments about modelling the links between military expenditure and growth.     

A comparison of usage data among types of aircraft

It has long been an accepted proposition that base level usage df technical repair items for aircraft is related to program elements. The program element most often cited in this connection is flying hours. Evidence of this relationship on a line item basis, however, has been sparse. This study suggests that although the supposed relation is intuitively plausible, for most line items it cannot be effectively utilized in projecting base level requirements. The basis of this conclusion is an analysis of demand characteristics for technical repair items for a variety of naval aircraft.     

Modeling and analysis of multiobjective lot splitting for N‐product M‐machine flowshop lines

Lot splitting is a new approach for improving productivity by dividing production lots into sublots. This approach enables accelerating production flow, reducing lead‐time and increasing the utilization of organization resources. Most of the lot splitting models in the literature have addressed a single objective problem, usually the makespan or flowtime objectives. Simultaneous minimization of these two objectives has rarely been addressed in the literature despite of its high relevancy to most industrial environments. This work aims at solving a multiobjective lot splitting problem for multiple products in a flowshop environment. Tight mixed‐integer linear programming (MILP) formulations for minimizing the makespan and flowtime are presented. Then, the MinMax solution, which takes both objectives into consideration, is defined and suggested as an alternative objective. By solving the MILP model, it was found that minimizing one objective results in an average loss of about 15% in the other objective. The MinMax solution, on the other hand, results in an average loss of 4.6% from the furthest objective and 2.5% from the closest objective. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

The impact of strategy and measurement on models of French military expenditure

The intention of this paper is to analyse why people go to war, despite the, at first sight, divergence between benefits and costs. This paper provides a comparison of the willingness to go to war in different OECD countries using World Values Survey data. The empirical findings in the United States, Switzerland, Spain, Sweden and West Germany, using the willingness to fight as a dependent variable, indicate that such factors as pride, trust, and political ideology significantly influence individuals' willingness to go to war.     

Defence industrial policy – a sound security strategy or an economic fallacy?

This article explores whether it makes sense for national governments to employ defence industrial policies – such as offsets and discriminatory procurement practices – to support their domestic defence industries. This question has so far primarily been discussed by economists, who have argued strongly against the use of defence industrial policies. This article maintains that these economists fail to address the often complex motivation behind the introduction of these policies. It illustrates these shortcomings by contrasting their arguments against a case study of Norway, which accounts for the country’s use of defence industrial polices from the early post-Second World War era up until today. The article concludes that, depending on their objectives, defence industrial policies can be seen as either a sound security strategy or an economic fallacy.