Defensive weapons and star wars: a supergame with optimal punishments

We model the perspective faced by nuclear powers involved in a supergame where nuclear deterrence is used to stabilise peace. This setting allows us to investigate the bearings of defensive weapons on the effectiveness of deterrence and peace stability, relying on one-shot optimal punishments. We find that the sustainability of peace is unaffected by defensive shields if the latter are symmetric across countries, while asymmetric endowments of such weapons have clear-cut destabilising consequences.     

直扩信号侦收技术研究

DS信号是一种具有优良电子防御能力的新型通信信号,广泛运用于军事、民用通信系统中。对抗这种技术的侦察手段目前还没有取得实用性的进展,因此,需开展大量的理论和实践工作。总结了在低信噪比下对直接序列扩频信号侦收的方法,并比较各个方法的优缺点,探讨了其中一些关键问题和新技术途径。     

Ethnic groups,political exclusion and domestic terrorism

This study examines whether the exclusion of ethnic groups from political power is an important contributing factor to domestic terrorism. To empirically test this question, we employ a negative binomial regression estimation on 130 countries during the period from 1981 to 2005. We find that countries in which certain ethnic populations are excluded from political power are significantly more likely to experience domestic terrorist attacks and to suffer from terrorist casualties; furthermore, ethnic group political exclusion is a more consistent and substantive predictor of domestic terrorist activity than general political repression or economic discrimination.     

WHY IRAN WANTS THE BOMB AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR US POLICY

Understanding why the Iranian regime wants to possess nuclear weapons is essential to formulating the best policy to prevent (or perhaps to simply manage) the emergence of a nuclear-armed Iran. Three general theories—realism, liberalism, and constructivism—provide a framework for looking at Iran's nuclear motivations. However, contrary to many analyses, the regime's desire to possess nuclear arms stems not from neorealist defensive concerns, but rather from offensive goals driven by domestic politics. The use of extremist Islamism by the Iranian regime to justify its autocratic rule is the primary motivating factor. Accordingly, the outlook for diplomatically addressing the Iranian regime's nuclear aspirations appears dim.     

Group Concentration and Violence: Does Ethnic Segregation Affect Domestic Terrorism?

This paper examines the link between ethnic segregation and domestic terrorism. The results show that ethnic segregation has a positive and significant effect on the incidence of domestic terrorism, which indicates that countries where ethnic groups are spatially concentrated face a higher risk of suffering this type of violence. This finding is not affected by the inclusion in the analysis of different covariates that may affect both ethnic segregation and domestic terrorism. The observed relationship between the degree of spatial concentration of ethnic groups and domestic terrorism is confirmed by various robustness tests. The results also suggest that the threat of secession is an important transmission channel linking ethnic segregation and domestic terrorism.     

上海合作组织框架下中国新疆与周边国家恐怖主义犯罪及打击对策

在环新疆经济圈新疆主体功能区的建设中，恐怖主义犯罪对该经济圈的建设构成重大威胁。本文就上海合作组织框架下新疆及周边国家的恐怖主义犯罪活动对环新疆经济圈的危害，以及如何有效打击该地区的恐怖主义犯罪进行了分析并提出相应的对策。     

新一轮科技革命孕育发展的动向及思考

当今世界正处于新科技革命的前夜,变革突破的能量正在不断积累。本文分析新一轮科技革命孕育发展的基本动因,梳理主要军事强国把握科技革命机遇推动科技创新的主要做法,提出新时期加强我国国防科技创新发展的几点思考。     

多发导弹协同作战效能评估的排队网络模型

基于开环排队网络,从敌我对抗过程中建立一攻击波次多发导弹协同作战的多防御阵地突防效能评估模型。得出可把由多个防御阵地构成的网络简化为多个独立的单一防御阵地来分析。     

Spatial Distribution of Minority Communities and Terrorism: Domestic Concentration versus Transnational Dispersion

Qualitative studies of terrorist movements frequently highlight the importance of diaspora communities as important factors in producing and sustaining terrorist activity in countries. The underlying theoretical argument is that bifurcation of tight-knit minority communities between countries nurtures separatist or irredentist sentiments among affected community members, thus prompting terrorist activity, while minority community members in other countries might mobilize financial and political resources to support terrorist activity among their compatriots. In this study, we empirically test whether transnational dispersion, versus domestic concentration, of minority communities in countries produces higher incidents of terrorism. Conducting a series of negative binomial estimations on a reshaped database of around 170 countries from 1981 to 2006, derived from the Minorities at Risk database and the Global Terrorism Database, we determine that both transnational dispersion of kin minority communities and domestic concentration of minorities within countries increase terrorism and that transnational dispersion is a particularly robust predictor of terrorist attacks.     

Domestic violence legislation for development,peace and security in Nigeria

Though laws have been enacted in different parts of Nigeria to address some aspects of gender-based violence, domestic violence persists with serious consequences for social and economic development. Nigeria has not enacted specific domestic law that is applicable throughout the federation, despite the United Nations mandate to all countries to adopt and enforce such laws by 2015. This article examines the causes and nature of domestic violence in Nigeria, and the legal reform needed to address the situation. In addition to library sources, the study used focus group discussions and individual interviews (involving the general population, key informants, legislators and traditional rulers) to discover that enacting specific national domestic violence legislation is necessary to address the problem in Nigeria, but enacting laws alone is not a magic bullet.     

一种新型防护结构对爆炸冲击波衰减特性的研究

运用大型有限元软件LS—DYNA,在相同爆炸冲击波作用下,对洞库口部普通钢板防护门和有泡沫铝夹层的钢板防护门两种防护结构的隔爆性能进行了数值模拟和对比分析,结果表明:有泡沫铝夹层的钢板防护门对爆炸冲击波有着良好的衰减特性。同时表明该新型防护结构对洞库口部抗爆炸冲击波设计有着很高的参考价值。     

谈“三非”人员对我国的不良影响及对策

近年来，我国的“三非”问题逐渐凸显，大量“三非”人员的涌入给我国的国家尊严、国防安全、社会稳定、经济发展以及人口素质等诸多方面都带来了冲击。研究化解、预防“三非”人员，将对我国的经济发展、社会稳定具有极为重要的现实意义。     

A neural network measurement of relative military security ‐ the case of Greece and Cyprus

I demonstrate the existence of two sources of contestability in the military aerospace market, within producing and export countries, through the State’s triple role as unique buyer, regulator and seller. For the producing countries, I introduce the new concept, ‘sovereignty price’; that is, the profit a State agrees to grant to its defence firms to perpetuate their domestic activities. This subjective, evolutionary concept provides a dynamic character to the theory of contestable markets. Moreover, I show that contestability is more effective than antitrust policies and a solution of the cost disease. Empirical cases are shown to confirm the theoretical analysis.     

Does Terrorism Increase after a Natural Disaster? An Analysis based upon Property Damage

Does an emergency such as a natural disaster lead to a surge of terrorism? This paper contributes to the emerging literature on this issue. We consider the experience of 129 countries during the period 1998–2012 to determine the effect of a natural disaster on both domestic as well as transnational terrorism. We also control for endogeneity using expenditure on health care and land area in a country as instruments. In contrast to the existing literature, we measure the extent of terrorism by the value of property damage. The results indicate that after natural disasters, (a) transnational terrorism increases with a lag, and (b) a statistically significant impact on domestic terrorism is not observed.     

Defence industries adjusting to change 1

This paper analyses the impact of terrorist activity on international tourist flows. To this end, we have estimated a cross‐sectional gravity equation for tourism from the G‐7 countries to a sample of 134 destinations over the period 2001–2003. Within this framework, we evaluate the deviation from ‘normal’ tourist flows due to terrorist activity, which is considered as negative advertising for the affected country. The analysis suggests that both domestic victims and international attacks are relevant factors when foreign tourists make their choice. This result is robust under alternative specifications. Moreover, the impact of terrorism is more severe in developing countries.     

Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth

We use the Hsiao–Granger method to test for terrorism–growth causality for seven Western European countries. In bivariate settings, the impact of economic performance on domestic terrorism is very strong. In trivariate settings, the impact of performance on terrorism diminishes. In general, we find that economic performance leads terrorist violence in robust ways only for three out of seven countries. Terrorism is almost never found to causally influence growth in bivariate and trivariate specifications. Our findings indicate that the role of economic performance in determining terrorist violence appears to have been important for some countries, whereas all attacked economies have been successful in adjusting to the threat of terrorism.     

电子商务中IPS入侵防御系统方案的探讨

本文首先分析了实现电子商务中的安全问题,针对此,给出了一种入侵防御方案的整体模型,使整套系统不仅具有入侵检测的功能,而且能实现与防火墙及反病毒代理的联动,达到对分布式攻击及未知病毒防循功能。     

网络战对作战的影响及对策

网络战作为一种新的作战形式引入作战领域,越来越受到各国重视,并已成为世界各国争相研究和重点建设的作战样式。文章从网络战的特点入手,针对网络战对作战影响进行了探讨,并从构建网络体系、研发武器装备、重视人才培养和加强训练演练四个方面阐述了强化军队网络战的对策措施。     

应对“Google Earth”的营区规划对策研究

针对美国Google公司依靠其＂Google Earth＂免费卫星图片浏览软件将大量涉及我军事设施的高清晰度卫星图片公布到互联网上的严重泄密问题,从分析我军营区易暴露的征候出发,探索能够混淆视听、有效规避光学卫星侦察的营区规划对策,为应对战时敌人的攻击、防范平时敌对情报人员的侦察以及恐怖组织的袭击提供一定的技术保障。     

From Civil War Victor to Cold War Guard: Positional Warfare in Korea and the Transformation of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, 1951–1953

This article analyses the impact of the Korean War on the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), particularly the period of positional warfare from 1951 to 1953. In the war of movement between October 1950 and June 1951, the PLA relied on its civil war era weapons and experience, including the doctrine of ‘battle of annihilation’. Operations in early 1951 suggested that the civil war legacies of the PLA no longer applied to the realities of combat in Korea. Based on both Soviet aid and domestic mobilisation, the PLA managed to build the material foundation for positional warfare and rapidly improved its logistics. Operationally, on the defensive, the PLA developed combined operations integrating infantry, artillery, and armoured forces. The PLA learned the lessons of the Korean War and strengthened its ties with the Soviet armed forces in order to modernise itself. The Korean War thus transformed the PLA from Civil War victor to Cold War guard.