鱼雷作战效能分析

从工程实际出发,结合鱼雷作战效能的动态性,综合考虑发射装置对鱼雷作战效能的影响,在鱼雷作战效能模型中引入发射装置的影响因素,同时对传统鱼雷寿命剖面进行了重新划分,首次把鱼雷在发射平台的装载阶段归入鱼雷的任务剖面,充分考虑鱼雷在整个寿命剖面内储存可靠性、装载可靠性和实航可靠性的时序性,则实航可靠性与储存可靠性、装载可靠性存在一定的关系,应用传统WSEIAC效能模型对鱼雷作战效能进行分析计算.     

鱼雷装备备件隶属关系的两级库存系统配置优化研究

备件库存系统配置优化是提高武器装备的战备完好性和降低寿命周期费用的重要途径,但在装备组成结构中,由于部件之间存在一定的隶属关系,并不是所有的项目都能够进行串件。针对现有两级库存系统备件配置优化研究的不完善之处,根据装备结构层次特点,通过分析鱼雷装备LRU和SRU备件两级库存系统,提出了备件初始配置方案下的备件库存缺货数模型,并在此基础上建立了基于备件隶属关系的两级库存系统配置优化模型。该模型以鱼雷装备使用度和库存费用为优化目标,通过优化备件库存配置结构,生成较好的备件库存配置方案,从而节约备件配置费用,避免造成资源浪费。     

面向任务的导弹测试性需求分析与指标确定

针对当前缺乏科学合理的理论和方法确定导弹系统级测试性指标的现状,提出一种面向任务需求的测试性指标确定方法.将导弹任务剖面划分为贮存、出库、部署和发射四个阶段,并提出各个阶段相应的测试需求;分别建立基于贮存可用度、战斗准备任务成功率、部署战备完好率和发射任务成功率为性能要求的测试性需求子模型,给出各个性能指标与测试性参数...     

概率分布模型的飞机战备完好率评估与预测

飞机战备完好率是军用飞机战斗力的重要体现.在分析目前部队常用的飞机战备完好率算法缺陷的基础上,建立了基于概率分布的飞机战备完好率计算模型,该模型体现了飞机任务可靠性、维修性与战备完好性之间的关系.以某型飞机为例,通过分析飞机任务可靠度,利用飞机可靠性、维修性、保障性及作战训练任务的历史统计数据,依据概率分布模型对飞机的...     

末段高层反导装备PHM多socket仿真分析

详细分析了独立于LRU的PHM方法和基于故障征兆预测的PHM方法的预测原理。利用LRU和PHM的MTBF概率分布和socket的全寿命周期费用建立仿真模型,介绍模型仿真方法与详细过程。研究了末段高层反导武器系统单socket全寿命周期费用与安全极限和预测距离的关系。引入同步时间的概念,利用单socket模型的方法优化多socket组成的系统。模型仿真结果更贴近末段高层反导装备实际,比单socket模型更有应用价值。     

鱼雷武器系统作战效能评估

从鱼雷武器系统的任务剖面出发,分析系统的可用性（Ａ）、任务可信性（Ｄ）、固有能力（Ｃ）三个矩阵的模型构成,进而得到评估鱼雷武器系统的作战效能的基本模型。并以潜载鱼雷武器系统为例,进行具体分析。     

备件消耗信息的鱼雷贮存可靠性评估

鱼雷服役后属于长期贮存装备,那么开展其贮存可靠性研究具有重要意义.针对鱼雷备件信息较易获得的现实,开展了其备件消耗数据结构的分析研究,提出了基于成败型数据处理鱼雷贮存失效数据的方法,并且结合ZIP模型的思想建立了鱼雷的备件统计模型,并利用矩估计方法对鱼雷贮存可靠性进行了评估.最后利用计算机进行了大量的数据仿真,通过与真值对比分析验证了方法的可行性,可以较为客观地评估鱼雷贮存可靠性.     

灰色神经网络的鱼雷经济寿命预测

为减少军费开支、降低鱼雷全寿命费用,从经济性角度提出了鱼雷最佳服役年限模型。利用灰色等维新息GM(1,1)模型对鱼雷年度使用维修费用进行预测;采用分组的思想将原始数据分为多组,采用神经网络对灰色模型的预测残差进行修正,以提高预测精度。通过实际算例预测了鱼雷经济寿命,从而证明了模型的实际应用价值。     

基于战备完好率的军用飞机维修费用需求确定方法

军用飞机维修费用需求与战备完好率要求密切相关,为保持飞机一定的战备完好率水平,必须投入一定的维修费用。维修费用投入多,则维修设备齐全,维修人员维修能力高,维修备件充足,飞机故障修复时间短,战备完好率高;维修费用投入少,会造成维修设备短缺,设施破旧,维修人员培训不到位,维修备件供应不足等各种问题,直接影响战备完好率水平。     

基于两级库存的装备备件配置优化模型

备件库存配置优化是提高装备战备完好性、降低装备寿命周期费用的重要途径。分析了基地级仓储中心、基层级仓库两级装备现场可更换单元(Line-Replacement Unit,LRU)库存系统,提出了备件初始配置方案下库存缺货模型,建立了基于备件隶属关系的两级库存系统配置优化模型。该模型以装备可用度和库存费用为优化目标,通过优化备件库存配置结构,形成合理的备件库存配置方案,从而降低备件配置费用,避免资源浪费。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.