可变模糊优选模型的反TBM战斗部研制风险综合评价

依据反TBM导弹战斗部研制的特点,建立了反TBM战斗部研制风险综合评价指标体系。引入了效用函数对定量评价指标进行统一量化,采用专家评估法对定性指标进行了量化。在此基础上,提出了一种基于可变模糊优选模型的反TBM导弹战斗部研制风险综合评估方案,该模型通过计算各方案的测度并进行比较,实现对战斗部研制风险方案的优劣性的综合评价,通过算例分析,验证了模型的合理性。     

机场目标打击顺序灰色决策分析

对军事机场目标的结构、特征进行了系统分析,确立了军事机场目标评估体系,并运用灰色决策分析方法建立了军事机场多目标打击顺序确定的优化模型,为对该类实施导弹打击所进行的火力计划拟制提供了一种新的数学方法。     

基于物元分析方法的防空导弹体系效能评估

为了适应未来防空导弹体系网络化体系发展需要,建立了防空导弹体系评估指标,并运用物元分析理论构造了评估模型,最后结合具体实例验证了此模型的可行性和实用性.该方法有效结合了定性与定量分析,且模型结构简单规范,为防空导弹体系评估提供了一种较为有效的方法和途径.     

目标打击价值的灰色决策分析

目标价值分析是舰艇指控系统进行目标分配和火力通道组织的基础性工作.为了评估目标价值大小,从分析影响目标价值大小的主要因素着手,将其归结为多目标决策中的方案排序问题,用灰色关联分析法建立了战场多目标打击顺序的评估模型.实例计算分析表明,所提出的方法较好地解决了评估中的多指标问题,计算结果与实际经验判断非常吻合,弥补了指挥员主观判断上的某些缺陷,为舰艇指控系统适时进行目标打击价值分析提供了一种有效的参考处理方法.     

常规导弹封锁机场跑道效能准则问题研究

由于没有考虑跑道的可维修性,当前所使用的跑道失效率指标具有较大局限性。如何从实战特点出发选取效能指标成为常规导弹封锁机场跑道作战效能评估的关键。首先分析了跑道抢修能力、抢修策略、道面上弹坑数及弹坑分布均匀程度对跑道恢复起降能力的影响,提出用跑道起降能力作为效能指标选取的依据,并就跑道起降能力的量化与效能指标体系的构建进行了研究,然后用实例对所建效能指标进行了验证。结果表明,该效能指标模型比之跑道失效率指标严格的定义更加贴近作战的实际情况,使用该指标能够满足常规导弹打击机场跑道作战效能评估、火力需求预测及打击方案选优等需要。     

舰空导弹与火炮武器协同抗击多目标的效能评估

为使水面舰艇防空导弹与火炮武器有效协同使用,提高抗击空袭多目标的作战效能,在分析防空导弹和近防炮武器发射区的基础上,通过研究防空导弹多个射击通道的射击次数、火炮武器的射击方式和射击次数等,建立了协同抗击多目标的效能评估模型,并运用该模型对确定最优火力分配方案的使用方法进行了举例分析,验证了模型的可用性.     

光学成像侦察卫星作战效能分析

为支持航天装备体系作战效能评估,建立了光学成像侦察卫星性能指标与卫星发现目标概率和定位精度的关系以及信息处理与传递模型.以支持导弹打击大型移动目标为例,以命中目标概率为作战效能指标,建立了光学成像侦察卫星作战效能模型.对模型进行了仿真,分析了影响卫星作战效能的主要因素.仿真结果表明所建模型能够合理反映光学成像侦察卫星对作战结果的影响,可用于从顶层分析航天装备.     

支持作战的天基信息系统效能分析的排队论模型

针对天基信息系统支持下导弹作战系统的特点,分析作战体系的效能评估指标体系.运用排队论,通过对实际作战过程的分析与模拟,认为作战系统可以看作是有n个服务器的混合制随机服务系统,在此基础上建立战毁评估不完善(虚警、漏报、有时延)条件下的作战效能评估模型,并进行了仿真计算,分析了作战的打击效果与各个效能指标之间的关系.     

炮兵远程精确打击能力模糊综合评估研究

信息化战争中炮兵作战方式将向远程精确打击转变.为科学评估炮兵远程精确打击能力,对炮兵远程精确打击能力体系进行系统分析,建立了评估指标体系.利用模糊综合评估的方法,建立了炮兵远程精确打击能力的二级模糊综合评估模型.并提出用GA-AHP法构造修正判断矩阵的准则函数,直接计算满足一致性的指标权重.给出了评估实例,实验结果表明,该模型能为炮兵部队建设提供科学、合理的指导.     

基于任务的中远程舰空导弹作战效能模型

为了有效评估中远程舰空导弹武器作战效能,提出了基于任务的作战效能度量方法和度量指标.根据空袭飞机对海反舰导弹攻击和舰空导弹对抗过程的分析,研究了中远程舰空导弹保卫点目标的效能,以此为基础,建立了中远程舰空导弹保卫多个海上目标时的作战效能模型,并对模型进行了仿真分析,验证了模型的合理性和有效性.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.