Bayesian enhanced decision making for deteriorating repairable systems with preventive maintenance

Since a system and its components usually deteriorate with age, preventive maintenance (PM) is often performed to restore or keep the function of a system in a good state. Furthermore, PM is capable of improving the health condition of the system and thus prolongs its effective age. There has been a vast amount of research to find optimal PM policies for deteriorating repairable systems. However, such decisions involve numerous uncertainties and the analyses are typically difficult to perform because of the scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. In this article, a Bayesian decision model is developed to determine the optimal number of PM actions for systems which are maintained according to a periodic PM policy. A non‐homogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity is used to describe the deteriorating behavior of the repairable system. It is assumed that the status of the system after a PM is somewhere between as good as new for a perfect repair and as good as old for a minimal repair, and for failures between two preventive maintenances, the system undergoes minimal repairs. Finally, a numerical example is given and the results of the proposed approach are discussed after performing sensitivity analysis. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

人民解放军参加西藏民主改革的经过

20世纪50年代末60年代初期,在平息西藏反动上层发动的全面武装叛乱后.进藏人民解放军各部队按照中共中央的要求,为确保西藏民主改革顺利实施,承担起光荣的历史使命,以多种方式积极投身于西藏民主改革运动中,充分发挥了战斗队的职能.为西藏民主革命事业的胜利做出重大贡献.     

不同形状喷嘴内流场模拟分析

建立了前混合磨料水射流喷嘴内固液两相流动的数学模型,运用Fluent软件对圆柱型、圆锥收敛型、流线型和圆锥带圆柱段收敛型喷嘴内流场进行了数值模拟,分析了喷嘴形状对喷嘴内流场和磨料颗粒加速性能的影响,并通过切割实验验证了仿真结果的可靠性。结果表明:圆柱型喷嘴能量损耗较大,圆锥收敛型喷嘴对磨料颗粒的加速性能差,流线型喷嘴性能良好但不易加工,只有圆锥带圆柱段收敛型喷嘴是用作前混合式磨料水射流喷嘴的最优选择。     

悬臂式围护桩受力性状与内力传递特征试验

为研究悬臂式围护桩结构的内力、弯矩、位移和嵌固段的变化规律及特点,结合西宁火车站综合改造工程,对该深基坑支护结构在不同开挖工况条件下悬臂桩的受力性状与内力传递特征进行现场动态测试试验。试验结果表明:悬臂桩的受力特征与理论值有所差异,在实际设计中可对其在配筋方式、混凝土强度设计、嵌固段长度等方面进行优化。试验结果可以有效优化桩身设计,为复杂基坑在开挖过程中的支护结构受力及变形提供参考性依据。     

A novel gradient approach for optimal design and sensitivity analysis of EWMA control charts

Conventional control charts are often designed to optimize out‐of‐control average run length (ARL), while constraining in‐control ARL to a desired value. The widely employed grid search approach in statistical process control (SPC) is time‐consuming with unsatisfactory accuracy. Although the simulation‐based ARL gradient estimators proposed by Fu and Hu [Manag Sci 45 (1999), 395–413] can alleviate this issue, it still requires a large number of simulation runs to significantly reduce the variance of gradient estimators. This article proposes a novel ARL gradient estimation approach based on integral equation for efficient analysis and design of control charts. Although this article compares with the results of Fu and Hu [Manag Sci 45 (1999), 395–413] based on the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart, the proposed approach has wide applicability as it can generally fit into any control chart with Markovian property under any distributions. It is shown that the proposed method is able to provide a fast, accurate, and easy‐to‐implement algorithm for the design and analysis of EWMA charts, as compared to the simulation‐based gradient estimation method. Moreover, the proposed gradient estimation method facilitates the computation of high‐order derivatives that are valuable in sensitivity analysis. The code is written in Matlab, which is available on request. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 223–237, 2014     

云计算视域下的网络威慑

文章考查了目前网络威慑理论在实践中出现的困境,并研究了云计算对网络威慑的价值对象,攻防能力以及威慑模式选择的影响,认为国家的网络威慑战略将更加倾向于抵消性威慑。基于此,对我国在云计算背景下加强网络安全提出了建议。     

一种新的双输入多通道直流变换器

在传统的含储能单元分布式供电系统中,一般都需要多个单向直流变换器和双向直流变换器才能实现其功能。提出一种新的双输入多通道直流变换器,它的功能等效于一个单向直流变换器和一个双向直流变换器。分析了双输入多通道直流变换器的工作原理,给出了变换器的稳态关系式以及能量管理方法,并运用Saber软件进行仿真,验证了理论分析的正确性。该直流变换器除具有双输入Buck直流变换器的优点外,还能实现可再生能源向储电输入源充电。     

微波与红外干衣实验研究

本文从干燥机理出发分析了微波干衣优于红外的性能，并且从实验表明微波干衣比用ＰＴＣ陶瓷板红外干衣平均节能１０～３０％，平均节时２０～４０％。     

Numerical and experimental study on the response characteristics of warhead in the fast cook-off process

The response characteristics of the warhead under thermal stimuli conditions are important to the safety improvement. The goal of this study is to obtain data on the warhead in the fast cook-off process. In this paper, a numerical calculation method is proposed, whose reliability is supported by comparison with experimental results. Through the numerical calculation, the temperature distribution, temperature change, and ignition time are acquired. The numerical results show that the ignition time is 76 s after the warhead started to burn and that the maximum temperature of the explosive's outer surface is 238.3 C at the ignition time. The fast cook-off experiment of the warhead is implemented so as to get the flame temperature and reaction grades that are not available through numerical calculation. The experimental results show that the overpressure fails to reach the preset minimum value which is equivalent to 6 kg of TNT and that the reaction grade is deflagration. The research results have reference value for the design of the warhead and the reduction of detonation risks.     

解决深层次思想认识问题增强战斗精神教育实效性

增强战斗精神教育的实效性,必须以加强我军根本职能和军人职业道德教育为基本途径、以增强立足现有装备打胜仗的信心为重点、以增强各级干部的责任感和使命感为关键,并积极探索平时培育战斗精神的长效机制,解决官兵思想认识上存在的深层次问题.