SPEED BUMP ON THE ROAD TO GLOBAL ZERO

The prospect of the United States continuing to reduce the size of its nuclear arsenal to “very low numbers” has raised questions in Japan and South Korea, where US extended deterrence guarantees are premised on the “nuclear umbrella.” In both countries, however, concerns focus less on numerical arsenal size than on the sufficiency of specific nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities to meet evolving threats and on the degree of broader US commitment to these alliances. This article assesses developments in US-Japan and US-South Korea relationships in response to the Obama administration's nuclear disarmament policies, focusing on how the evolutionary course of those relationships may in turn condition prospects for sustaining this US nuclear policy direction. The analysis finds that the challenges of deterrence credibility and allied reassurance are difficult and long-term, but also that US nuclear arsenal size is secondary to broader political, strategic, and military factors in meeting these challenges. The evaluation concludes that strong alliance relationships and strategic stability in East Asia can be maintained while the size of the US nuclear arsenal continues to decline, but also that deterioration of these relationships could imperil core US nuclear policy and nonproliferation objectives.     

ADVANCING THE GOALS OF NPT ARTICLE VI

International technical cooperation on issues relevant to the challenges of nuclear disarmament can demonstrate commitment to obligations under Article VI of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, strengthen the security of fissile materials and weapons, and develop technical approaches to support more ambitious disarmament activities in the future. Including non-nuclear weapon states would ensure that their views are taken into account and would invest them in developing solutions to key challenges. This article discusses three areas for technical cooperation that would build on past activities and that could produce such benefits as improved protection, control, and accounting of nuclear weapons and fissile material; enhanced transparency for nuclear weapon complexes; and mechanisms for international management of sensitive civilian nuclear facilities. International cooperation in each of these areas could provide a technical basis for pursuing possible future disarmament negotiations and substantively demonstrate commitment to Article VI.     

一类平面系统极限环的不存在性

在系统奇点唯一的条件下,研究了一类微分系统不存在极限环的的充分条件,运用和发展了以往的结果.     

基于模态分析方法的管道导波频散曲线计算

推导了管道中导波传播的有限元方程,使用 ANSYS 有限元软件建立了管道模型;对导波进行模态分析,得到了管道模型的一系列特征频率与振型,通过对管道振型的模态识别,提取了管道中各模态导波的模态特征,计算得到了管道中导波的频散曲线,该曲线与解析法所得到的频散曲线相吻合。该方法可以应用于周期性重复组合的任何结构（如横截面固定的杆、板、管）中导波的频散曲线计算。     

一类二次Hamilton系统在三次多项式扰动下的极限环

通过计算一类二次Hamilton系统的高阶Mel′nikov函数,对该系统在三次多项式扰动下分岔的极限环个数进行了估计。     

串并联结构分解目标毁伤评估

针对仿真中空地导弹攻击复杂目标的毁伤评估问题,提出了一种基于串并联结构分解的目标毁伤评估算法,并引入了修复时间作为毁伤评估的一项指标.该算法首先按结构布局和功能关系将目标分解成多个子系统,并组成串并联结构图,然后根据导弹的精确落点对每个子系统进行毁伤评估,最后综合所有子系统的毁伤情况得出目标整体的毁伤程度和恢复正常所需...     

基于ADC模型的坦克炮射击效能评估

运用美国工业界武器系统效能咨询委员会(WSEIAC)评估武器系统效能的方法,综合坦克炮射击的特点,建立完善了适合坦克炮射击效能评价方法的数学模型,并对模型中各有关参数进行了初定,使效能分析的结果更接近实际.     

一种航空武器数据链MAC协议设计与研究

MAC协议是航空武器数据链组网通信的重要技术,网络的性能依赖于所采用的多址接入协议,也是航空武器数据链研究的难点之一。固定分配、竞争和预约三大类MAC协议各有优缺点以及适应场景,需要根据应用需求设计对应的多址接入协议,以满足通信网络的战术和技术性能指标。在分析数字化战场通信网络——战术数据链组网通信应用的主要MAC协议的基础上,结合航空武器数据链的通信特点和体系结构,提出一种基于固定分配TDMA的航空武器数据链MAC协议——ODTCFMA协议,并对协议的时延性能进行了仿真和分析。分析结果表明,该协议能够同时满足编队战术协同和武器制导的低时延要求,对航空武器数据链的研究具有一定的借鉴意义。     

地空导弹反导作战拦截次数计算模型及仿真

在分析地空导弹武器系统拦截来袭目标过程的基础上,通过分析地空导弹发射区纵深建立了地空导弹武器系统可拦截次数模型.利用该模型可计算地空导弹武器系统对单个来袭目标在杀伤区内的拦截次数.仿真结果揭示了地空导弹武器系统在不同目标特性(速度、高度、航路捷径)下对目标的可拦截次数的影响.