美国军事放射性废物监管与处置

军事放射性废物的监管与处置是军队放射性污染防治工作的重要内容,研究并借鉴外军先进的监管经验和处置技术,对实现我军放射性废物科学监管和合理处置具有重要作用。以美国军事放射性废物为研究对象,深入分析了其概念与分类、监管机制、技术与设施保障体系;发现美军在放射性废物监管与处置方面具有严格的管理体制、完备的法律规章、注重开发先进处置技术等特点。为加强我军放射性废物监管与处置水平,应当注意三个方面的问题:加强技术创新,建立科学有效的监管体系,开发相关固化材料与技术。     

应急物资筹集问题的双目标模糊优化决策模型

应急物资筹集决策是直接影响应急动员效果的重要决策问题之一,是实施应急保障和应急救援的关键环节。把应急物资筹集决策问题抽象为物资筹集点选择的组合优化问题,结合混合规划方法与模糊优化思想,提出了双目标模糊优化模型及改进算法;在此基础上,进一步研究了物资可动员量为模糊数时的模糊资源约束模型,并给出了相应的算法;最后用算例证明了该方法的有效性。     

Modeling the fatigue life of longitudinal elements

Functional equations enable us to arrive at a simple consensus model for fatigue life of longitudinal elements based on engineering principles. The model is then applied to two representative data sets. By the application of proportional hazards techniques and subsequent likelihood analysis, simple parsimonious Weibull models are derived. Inter alia attention is given to the desirability of deriving models exhibiting plausible asymptotic independence. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Reliability models and inference for systems operating in different environments

We consider a class of models for the reliability function of a series system. The models incorporate dependence of the function on environmental covariates. On the basis of censored data obtained by monitoring several series systems operating under various sets of values of the covariates, estimators are derived of the reliability function of a series system operating under a different set of values of the covariates. Estimators of various functionals of the reliability function, such as the trimmed mean and quantiles, are also presented. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained with the use of the framework of counting processes and martingales. The loss in efficiency in estimating the regression parameters and the reliability function is also examined when one assumes a more general semiparametric model, when in fact the true model belongs to a more restricted model. We illustrate these procedures with the use of accelerated failure-time data. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Becoming a disarmament champion: the Austrian crusade against nuclear weapons

ABSTRACT

The making of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) has put Austria and its involvement in nuclear disarmament in the spotlight. This study highlights several factors that led Austria to become a prominent voice in nuclear-disarmament debates. First, its involvement dovetails with the emphasis on humanitarian disarmament it has promoted since the 1990s. Second, a strong antinuclear identity pervades Austrian society. This “nuclear allergy” combines antimilitarism inherited from the Cold War and, more broadly, an aversion to nuclear power, including for energy purposes. These two considerations form the background to the increased activism of the Austrian Foreign Ministry on nuclear disarmament in international fora. But, equally, Austria’s crusade for the TPNW can be attributed to the engagement of a small team of diplomats implementing personal as well as national preferences in favor of disarmament.     

The fateful phoenix: the revival of Al-Qa’ida in Iraq

Although the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is seen as a novel manifestation of Islamic extremism, it is in fact the latest, albeit perhaps the most effective, of a long line of revivalist movements in the Islamic and the Arab worlds. Its motivations – hisba and jihad – differ little from its predecessors and its ambitions – to create a state organised in accordance with the precepts of the Islamic caliphate – reflect a long-standing Islamic ambition. It differs, of course, in terms of the sophistication of its political and military strategies, which mirror the contemporary complexities of the world in which it operates, but its objectives recall long-standing Islamic ideals, even if articulated in radically brutal and extremist ways. More importantly, perhaps, ISIS or Da’ish, to give it its Arabic sobriquet, reflects the enormous degree of resentment inside the Middle East at the ways in which Western powers have intervened in regional affairs over recent years, particularly their support for regimes and economic systems there that have betrayed, in the popular imaginary, the essential principles of social justice that lie at the root of Islamic vision of ideal social order. Indeed, in many respects, its analysis of the world in which it operates and of the objectives it seeks differ little in essence from those any other resistance and rejectionist movement, whether religious or sectarian. More specifically, it has been the sectarian conflict that resulted from the reversal of political order in Iraq as a result of the 2003 American-led invasion that has driven the success of the movement in capturing widespread Sunni support. Whether it can manage the complexities of the administration of a state remains open to question.     

Collective security and strategic instability in the digital domain

Cyberspace experiences worrying trends that could have a negative impact on the international strategic landscape. The lack or erosion of norms and risky practices and behaviors could lead to greater uncertainty and thus greater instability. Set against a context of renewed competition between great powers, these developments are also tied to the strategic structure of cyberspace. This forum is devoted to discussing factors leading to stability or and instability.     

Sweden and the issue of NATO membership: exploring a public opinion paradox

The past decade has seen substantial shifts in Swedish security policy and major change in the domestic debate about NATO. For the first time, all of the right-of-centre “alliance parties” are calling for a full NATO membership, and popular support for NATO has increased. Yet public opinion contains ambiguities and paradoxes that complicate the picture. At the same time as support for NATO has increased, the public is overwhelmingly for continued military non-alignment. Drawing on previous research, longitudinal data from national surveys, and other sources on defence and security issues, this article aims to increase our understanding of the development and change in Swedish public opinion on NATO. A key argument is that Erving Goffman’s theatre metaphor, combined with neo-institutional decoupling theory, to a large degree can help understand the public opinion paradox.     

A Cryptographic Escrow for Treaty Declarations and Step-by-Step Verification

The verification of arms-control and disarmament agreements requires states to provide declarations, including information on sensitive military sites and assets. There are important cases, however, in which negotiations of these agreements are impeded because states are reluctant to provide any such data, because of concerns about prematurely handing over militarily significant information. To address this challenge, we present a cryptographic escrow that allows a state to make a complete declaration of sites and assets at the outset and commit to its content, but only reveal the sensitive information therein sequentially. Combined with an inspection regime, our escrow allows for step-by-step verification of the correctness and completeness of the initial declaration so that the information release and inspections keep pace with parallel diplomatic and political processes. We apply this approach to the possible denuclearization of North Korea. Such approach can be applied, however, to any agreement requiring the sharing of sensitive information.