Attrition through a partially coordinated area defense

An area defense consists of several groups that act independently, i.e., do not communicate with each other. Each group has a fixed number of defenders and a controller that allocates these defenders optimally against the individual attackers comprising an attack. We analyze the effectiveness of this partially coordinated defense against a simultaneous attack of known size in which all attackers are considered to be equally lethal. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

Finding the Kth shortest path in a time‐schedule network

We consider the problem of finding the Kth shortest path for a time‐schedule network, where each node in the network has a list of prespecified departure times, and departure from the node can take place only at one of these departure times. We develop a polynomial time algorithm independent of K for finding the Kth shortest path. The proposed algorithm constructs a map structure at each node in the network, using which we can directly find the Kth shortest path without having to enumerate the first K − 1 paths. Since the same map structure is used for different K values, it is not necessary to reconstruct the table for additional paths. Consequently, the algorithm is suitable for directly finding multiple shortest paths in the same network. Furthermore, the algorithm is modified slightly for enumerating the first K shortest paths and is shown to have the lowest possible time complexity under a condition that holds for most practical networks. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

Scheduling a production–distribution system to optimize the tradeoff between delivery tardiness and distribution cost

We consider a make‐to‐order production–distribution system with one supplier and one or more customers. A set of orders with due dates needs to be processed by the supplier and delivered to the customers upon completion. The supplier can process one order at a time without preemption. Each customer is at a distinct location and only orders from the same customer can be batched together for delivery. Each delivery shipment has a capacity limit and incurs a distribution cost. The problem is to find a joint schedule of order processing at the supplier and order delivery from the supplier to the customers that optimizes an objective function involving the maximum delivery tardiness and the total distribution cost. We first study the solvability of various cases of the problem by either providing an efficient algorithm or proving the intractability of the problem. We then develop a fast heuristic for the general problem. We show that the heuristic is asymptotically optimal as the number of orders goes to infinity. We also evaluate the performance of the heuristic computationally by using lower bounds obtained by a column generation approach. Our results indicate that the heuristic is capable of generating near optimal solutions quickly. Finally, we study the value of production–distribution integration by comparing our integrated approach with two sequential approaches where scheduling decisions for order processing are made first, followed by order delivery decisions, with no or only partial integration of the two decisions. We show that in many cases, the integrated approach performs significantly better than the sequential approaches. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

Real-time prediction of projectile penetration to laminates by training machine learning models withfinite element solver as the trainer

Studies on ballistic penetration to laminates is complicated, but important for design effective protection of structures. Experimental means of study is expensive and can often be dangerous. Numerical simu-lation has been an excellent supplement, but the computation is time-consuming. Main aim of this thesis was to develop and test an effective tool for real-time prediction of projectile penetrations to laminates by training a neural network and a decision tree regression model. A large number of finite element models were developed;the residual velocities of projectiles fromfinite element simulations were used as the target data and processed to produce sufficient number of training samples. Study focused on steel 4340tpolyurea laminates with various configurations. Four different 3D shapes of the projectiles were modeled and used in the training. The trained neural network and decision tree model was tested using independently generated test samples using finite element models. The predicted projectile velocity values using the trained machine learning models are then compared with thefinite element simulation to verify the effectiveness of the models. Additionally, both models were trained using a published experimental data of projectile impacts to predict residual velocity of projectiles for the unseen samples. Performance of both the models was evaluated and compared. Models trained with Finite element simulation data samples were found capable to give more accurate predication, compared to the models trained with experimental data, becausefinite element modeling can generate much larger training set, and thus finite element solvers can serve as an excellent teacher. This study also showed that neural network model performs better with small experimental dataset compared to decision tree regression model.     

Field test and probabilistic analysis of irregular steel debris casualty risks from a person-borne improvised explosive device

Person-borne improvised explosive devices (PBIEDs) are often used in terrorist attacks in Western countries. This study aims to predict the trajectories of PBIED fragments and the subsequent safety risks for people exposed to this hazard. An explosive field test with a typical PBIED composed of a plastic explosive charge and steel nut enhancements was performed to record initial fragment behaviour, including positions, velocity, and trajectory angles. These data were used to predict the full trajectory of PBIED fragments using a probabilistic analysis. In the probabilistic analyses a probability of fatality or serious injury was computed. Based on the results presented, many practical conclusions can be drawn, for instance, regarding safe evacuation distances if a person were exposed to a suspected PBIED.     

Approximation algorithms for minimizing total weighted completion time of orders on identical machines in parallel

We consider the problem of scheduling orders on identical machines in parallel. Each order consists of one or more individual jobs. A job that belongs to an order can be processed by any one of the machines. Multiple machines can process the jobs of an order concurrently. No setup is required if a machine switches over from one job to another. Each order is released at time zero and has a positive weight. Preemptions are not allowed. The completion time of an order is the time at which all jobs of that order have been completed. The objective is to minimize the total weighted completion time of the orders. The problem is NP‐hard for any fixed number (≥2) of machines. Because of this, we focus our attention on two classes of heuristics, which we refer to as sequential two‐phase heuristics and dynamic two‐phase heuristics. We perform a worst case analysis as well as an empirical analysis of nine heuristics. Our analyses enable us to rank these heuristics according to their effectiveness, taking solution quality as well as running time into account. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

Maximizing project cash availability

Consider a project during the life cycle of which there are cash payouts and in‐flows. To better meet his financial commitments, the project owner would like to meet all deadlines without running out of cash. We show that the cash availability objective is similar to the total weighted flowtime used to measure work‐in‐progress performance in the scheduling and inventory control literatures. In this article we provide several specialized solution methods for the problem of minimizing total weighted flowtime in an arbitrary acyclic project network, subject to activity release times and due dates, where the activity weights may be positive or negative and represent cash in‐ and out‐flows. We describe the structure of an optimal solution and provide several efficient algorithms and their complexity based on mincost and maxflow formulations. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

AN ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL OF CAPITAL AND ARMS ACCUMULATION

This paper attempts to examine the effect of an anticipated foreign military threat on the steady‐state growth rate and the transitional behavior of the economy. The modeling strategy follows the Sandler and Hartley (1995 Sandler, T. and Hartley, K. 1995. The Economics of Defense, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar]) and Dunne et al. (2005 Dunne, J.P., Smith, R.P. and Willenbockel, D. 2005. Models of military expenditure and growth: a critical review. Defence and Peace Economics, 16: 449–461. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) viewpoints to emphasize the role of national defense in affecting growth from the perspective of both the demand and the supply sides. We thus combine the public capital version of endogenous growth with a framework of competitive arms accumulation. It is found that the key factor determining the steady state and the transitional effects of a rise in the foreign military threat on the home weapon–capital ratio, the consumption–capital ratio, and the rate of economic growth, is the degree of relative risk aversion.     

TERRORIST THREATS AND TRANSITIONAL DYNAMICS IN AN OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL

Previous research has shown that the duration of a civil war is in part a function of how it ends: in government victory, rebel victory, or negotiated settlement. We present a model of how protagonists in a civil war choose to stop fighting. Hypotheses derived from this theory relate the duration of a civil war to its outcome as well as characteristics of the civil war and the civil war nation. Findings from a competing risk model reveal that the effects of predictors on duration vary according to whether the conflict ended in government victory, rebel victory, or negotiated settlement.     

RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT: TRENDS IN COST AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR UK AEROSPACE

This paper, intended to stimulate debate, suggests that we are at a turning point in the history of the UK military aerospace industry. It argues that there is urgent need for a fresh vision as to how the UK military aerospace industry can both prosper and make its maximum contribution to the defence of Britain. Further, the resulting plans and policies must emphasise the robustness of defence capabilities in a future in which the only thing we can be certain is that it will be very different from the present – especially whenever defence most matters.