基于贝叶斯网络的我国海上能源通道海盗袭击风险分析与实验评估

鉴于能源进口安全保障的重要性及迫切性,针对海上能源通道海盗袭击事件的不确定性与突发性,基于风险理论、贝叶斯网络、蒙特卡洛模拟等方法,建立了海上能源通道海盗袭击风险的量化评估模型,探索了快速、量化评估突发性事件的技术途径,旨在为保障我国能源进口安全提供时效性强、精确度高的决策依据。     

舰炮射击海上弹着点声学测量方法及精度仿真

本文提出了利用声传感器测量舰炮射击海上弹着点的方法,并建立了基本方程。对测量系统的原理和测量信息的传输方式进行了分析,在此基础上,对声传感器位置误差、测时误差及二者综合作用对测量精度的影响分别进行了仿真计算,证明测量原理可行,测量精度满足要求。     

自由曲面的立体视觉测量与加工一体化研究

对自由曲面的立体现觉测量与加工一体化技术中的图像匹配、曲面造型以及接口设计等问题进行了分析与讨论,并提出了切实可行的解决办法。     

Ordering policies for an inventory system with three supply modes

This article explores ordering policies for inventory systems with three supply modes. This model is particularly interesting because the optimal ordering decision needs to balance the inventory and purchase costs, as well as the costs for earlier and later periods. The latter cost trade-off is present only in inventory systems with three or more supply modes. Therefore, the result not only offers guidelines for the operation of the concerned inventory systems, but also provides valuable insight into the complex cost trade-offs when more supply modes are available. We assume that the difference between the lead times is one period, and the inventory holding and shortage costs are linear. We analyze two cases and obtain the structure of the optimal ordering policy. Moreover, in the first case, explicit formulas are derived to calculate the optimal order-up-to levels. In the second case, although the optimal order-up-to levels are functions of the initial inventory state and are not obtained in closed form, their properties are discussed. We also develop heuristic ordering policies based on the news-vendor model. Our numerical experiments suggest that the heuristic policies perform reasonably well. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Analysis of a two-component series system with a geometric process model

In this article, a geometric process model is introduced for the analysis of a two-component series system with one repairman. For each component, the successive operating times form a decreasing geometric process with exponential distribution, whereas the consecutive repair times constitute an increasing geometric process with exponential distribution, but the replacement times form a renewal process with exponential distribution. By introducing two supplementary variables, a set of partial differential equations is derived. These equations can be solved analytically or numerically. Further, the availability and the rate of occurrence of failure of the system are also determined. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

美军装备合同商保障的主要做法及启示

本文在系统研究美军装备合同商保障成功经验的基础上，立足于我军装备保障的实际情况，借鉴美军先进的合同商保障经验，总结其不足，探索性的提出了建立具有我军特色的装备合同商保障的建议。对我军实行装备合同商保障，充分发挥整个国家在人力、物力和科学技术资源上的优势，把合同商保障方式、保障手段与我军编制保障力量更好、更合理的结合起来，为建立具有我军特色的装备合同商保障体制进行理论指导。     

新型装备软件质量军民一体化保障分析

作为军民一体化联合保障的重要内容，新型装备中的软件质量保障与维护对承包商提出了更为严格的要求。分析型号装备研制过程中对软件进行的过程改进与管理，装备交付时进行软件质量检测与评估，以及装备部队后的软件维护与保障的必要性，分别从软件质量约束、监管、验收及软件后期维护等方面进行阐述，提出了型号装备软件全寿命周期中实施军民一体化联合保障的要求及措施，并对其软件保障与维护过程进行归纳。     

体系对抗仿真建模中的网络模型与交互模型相关问题研究

从信息化战争体系对抗模拟仿真的EBI模型体系出发,界定了体系对抗的网络模型和交互模型的概念,探讨了网络模型和交互模型的建模内容,分析了利用网络模型和交互模型表现体系对抗复杂性的途径,并在探讨体系对抗仿真网络模型和交互模型的关系和相互作用的基础上,提出了一种基于ABM建模方法构建体系对抗网络模型和交互模型的研究设想.     

UKF及其在目标跟踪中的应用

在高斯噪声环境下,为了解决扩展卡尔曼滤波(EKF)在目标跟踪应用中精度低和滤波发散的问题,将无迹卡尔曼滤波(UKF)应用于非线性系统的目标跟踪.研究了无迹卡尔曼滤波估计方法,对采样策略进行了比例修正.通过UKF在目标跟踪中的应用仿真结果表明,与EKF相比较,UKF有更好的跟踪性能、收敛快、对噪声有更强的适应能力,算法实现简单.     

航天电源技术及标准体系探讨

简述了航天电源的作用及特点，分析了各类航天电源的技术和发展动态，简介了IEC电源标准和NASA电源标准的情况，分析了我国航天电源标准体系及标准情况，提出了我国航天电源标准的发展方向。