基于灰色关联和D-S证据理论的导弹系统安全性评估

针对导弹系统安全性评价的不确定性问题,提出了将灰色关联和D-S证据理论相结合的方法,从人员安全性、设备安全性和环境安全性建立了综合评估指标体系,用灰色关联分析处理了指标之间的关联性。在传统证据合成公式的基础上,考虑证据集非关键因素的权重,给出了修正的证据合成公式。并以打靶选弹为例进行了计算分析,得出了导弹安全性优先级排序,并将改进算法与传统计算方法的结果进行了比较,验证了评价模型的可行性与实用性,为导弹系统的管理工作提供了有益的参考。     

一类具有时滞和阶段结构的SI传染病模型的稳定性分析

研究一类具有时滞和阶段结构的SI传染病模型。讨论了系统平衡点的存在性和局部稳定性，并讨论了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局稳定性。最后对所得理论结果进行了数值模拟。     

微分对策界栅理论在舰艇作战能力评估中的应用

作战能力是表征战斗舰艇战术技术性能的一项重要指标,如何正确评价舰艇的作战能力一直是军事运筹研究的热点.利用定性微分对策的界栅理论研究了一类作战问题,通过构造捕获区面积和咽喉区域面积,并以此作为动态评估舰艇作战能力的衡量指标.研究结果可为综合评价舰艇作战能力提供一条新途径.     

基于前景理论的CGF Agent决策建模研究

前景理论(Prospect Theory,PT)描述了个体在不确定条件下的决策规律,较好地刻画了决策者的风险偏好。分析表明,PT在作战决策建模中具有一定的适用性和可行性。提出了一种基于PT的计算机生成兵力(Computer Generated Forces,CGF)Agent决策建模方法,给出了CGF Agent的建模框架,对CGF Agent决策过程中方案选择的具体步骤和算法进行了详细阐述。实验表明,所提出的方法在一定程度上提高了CGF Agent决策行为的真实性,证明了所提出方法的有效性。     

气液两相管流流型识别理论研究进展

综述了气液两相流流型识别理论及方法的研究进展。首先探讨了流型划分问题，然后针对水平管路、垂直管路及摇摆管路介绍了两相流流型转换机理及转换的边界条件；对于流型的在线识别，介绍了基于波动理论、神经网络和图像处理的流型识别方法。最后提出了气液两相管流流型识别中亟待开展的理论研究方向。     

基于博弈论的装备科研、购置、维修经费比例关系优化分析

通过不同时期国家战略部署、科研发展情况及经济承受能力对装备经费分配的影响分析,采用博弈的方法,建立了装备科研、购置和维修费之间的比例关系优化模型,给出了寻求纳什均衡点的迭代算法,并进行了仿真计算.仿真结果证明了该方法的可行性与正确性.     

New inequalities for finite and infinite group problems from approximate lifting

In this paper, we derive new families of facet‐defining inequalities for the finite group problem and extreme inequalities for the infinite group problem using approximate lifting. The new valid inequalities for the finite group problem include two‐ and three‐slope facet‐defining inequalities as well as the first family of four‐slope facet‐defining inequalities. The new valid inequalities for the infinite group problem include families of two‐ and three‐slope extreme inequalities. These new inequalities not only illustrate the diversity of strong inequalities for the finite and infinite group problems, but also provide a large variety of new cutting planes for solving integer and mixed‐integer programming problems. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

A Good Ally - Norway and International Statebuilding in Afghanistan, 2001-2014

The article examines the findings of the Commission of Inquiry established by the Norwegian government in 2014 to evaluate all aspects of Norway’s civilian and military contribution to the international operation in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2014. Concerned with the wider implications of the Commission’s findings, it focuses on two issues in particular: (1) Norway’s relations with the US, a close and long-standing strategic ally whose resources, capabilities and dominance of decision-making dwarfed that of all other coalition partners in Afghanistan; and (2) Norway’s record in the province of Faryab, where, from 2005 to 2012, a Norwegian-led Provincial Reconstruction Team was charged with bringing security, good governance and development to the province. How Norway prioritised and managed relations with the US highlights and helps to problematise the challenges – political, practical and moral – facing small and medium-sized powers operating in a coalition alongside the US. Norwegian efforts in Faryab are revealing of the dilemmas and contradictions that plagued and, ultimately, fatally undermined the international intervention as a whole. As such, Norway’s experience provides a microcosm through which the inherent limitations of the attempt to transfer the structures of modern statehood and Western democracy to Afghanistan can be better understood.     

炮兵射击中若干“异常”现象的外弹道原理

在我军炮兵部队实弹射击实践和武器装备的射击试验中,经常出现一些与直觉不一致的所谓"异常"现象,困扰着部分炮兵指挥员和战斗人员.这些异常现象看似偶然且十分反常,实际上从外弹道理论上都是可以得到解释,而且是必然的.精心选取几个最常见的异常现象进行详细分析,以期为炮兵指挥员和战斗人员提供参考.     

Application of Markov renewal theory and semi-Markov decision processes in maintenance modeling and optimization of multi-unit systems

In this paper, a condition-based maintenance model for a multi-unit production system is proposed and analyzed using Markov renewal theory. The units of the system are subject to gradual deterioration, and the gradual deterioration process of each unit is described by a three-state continuous time homogeneous Markov chain with two working states and a failure state. The production rate of the system is influenced by the deterioration process and the demand is constant. The states of the units are observable through regular inspections and the decision to perform maintenance depends on the number of units in each state. The objective is to obtain the steady-state characteristics and the formula for the long-run average cost for the controlled system. The optimal policy is obtained using a dynamic programming algorithm. The result is validated using a semi-Markov decision process formulation and the policy iteration algorithm. Moreover, an analytical expression is obtained for the calculation of the mean time to initiate maintenance using the first passage time theory.