军民融合制度变迁分析

军民融合制度变迁属于强制性的制度变迁,必须由国家来主导。从国家的角度对军民融合制度变迁进行成本收益分析,认为政府是推动制度变迁的最主要力量;通过构建国家效用函数,对国家推行军民融合制度变迁动力产生过程进行探析,认为国家效用的降低是推行制度变迁的诱因。     

高硬热喷涂层的缓进给切削试验

采用高硬材料切削过程中常用的2种刀具材料CBN和YG610,应用缓进给的模式对高硬喷涂层进行切削试验。试验结果表明：采用小进给切削模式YG610刀具切削高硬热喷涂层可以获得较理想的刀具耐用度,并且加工表面质量可以达到Ra1以下,具备了以车代磨的基本条件。高硬材料切削常用的刀具CBN在切削过程中出现了较严重的非正常破损现象。通过对试验现象的分析,可以认为冲击性和高硬度的同时存在是喷涂层切削的最重要特性。因此,喷涂层切削刀具需要同时具备较高的韧性和硬度。     

排列熵算法的应用与发展

重点阐述了排列熵算法的基本原理,总结归纳了该算法在医学、生物和机械等领域的国内外研究和应用现状,最后展望了排列熵算法的未来发展趋势。研究表明：排列熵算法能够有效放大时间序列的微弱变化,且计算简单、实时性高,已在信号突变检测方面显示出良好的应用前景。     

A standardized scan statistic for detecting spatial clusters with estimated parameters

The scan statistic based on likelihood ratios (LRs) have been widely discussed for detecting spatial clusters. When developing the scan statistic, it uses the maximum likelihood estimates of the incidence rates inside and outside candidate clusters to substitute the true values in the LR statistic. However, the parameter estimation has a significant impact on the sensitivity of the scan statistic, which favors the detection of clusters in areas with large population sizes. By presenting the effects of parameter estimation on Kulldorff's scan statistic, we suggest a standardized scan statistic for spatial cluster detection. Compared to the traditional scan statistic, the standardized scan statistic can account for the varying mean and variance of the LR statistic due to inhomogeneous background population sizes. Extensive simulations have been performed to compare the power of the two cluster detection methods with known or/and estimated parameters. The simulation results show that the standardization can help alleviate the effects of parameter estimation and improve the detection of localized clusters. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

“E体化”军事物流的建设与发展

根据未来高技术战争和信息技术的发展趋势,提出了建设"E体化"军事物流的宏观战略构想,论述了"E体化"军事物流的理论内涵和现实意义,明确提出了"E体化"军事物流的战略目标以及目标实现的关键基础体系.     

Cognitivism,prospect theory,and foreign policy change: a comparative analysis of the politics of counterinsurgency in Malaya and Afghanistan

This article investigates the cognitive limitations on policy change in counterinsurgency (COIN) efforts by examining why American decision-makers failed to revise their government strategy substantially while fighting the insurgency in Afghanistan in 2003–2014 and why their British counterparts were more successful in adjusting their policies in the Malayan insurgency in 1948–1954. Unlike most of the COIN literature that concentrates on military strategy and tactics, the analysis of government policy-making in Malaya holds some important political lessons for American leaders today despite differences between the insurgencies in Afghanistan and British Malaya. As a response to the criticism of COIN studies in general that they lack theoretical guidance, this article utilizes an integrated cognitivist-prospect theory framework. It is argued that some of the COIN literature mistakenly suggests that a more difficult strategic situation was primarily responsible for American failure in Afghanistan. Instead, American decision-makers faced a more difficult task cognitively than their British counterparts, as policy change in Afghanistan would have required greater ideational change. American principals were much more attached to their beliefs emotionally, had no alternative problem representation, and had to shift between frames in order to engineer a response that was more in line with events on the ground in Afghanistan. Regarding prospect theory, findings indicate that gains frames appear to be unhelpful in monitoring progress until catastrophic failure endangers the reference point, and that decision-makers often have more than one reference point to attune their policies to, which often results in suboptimal choices with regard to at least one reference point.     

收发同源设备中相位噪声对信号的影响分析

收发同源设备中信号经过下变频、A/D采样、数字信号处理、D/A恢复和上变频等流程,本文给出了相应的信号传输模型,并针对频标相位噪声对信号通过的影响进行了分析,基于上、下变频时刻频标相位噪声发生变化的分析,推导出了频标相噪对信号经过收发同源设备所产生的影响表达式,并得出结论:由于频标相噪的存在,使得信号通过收发同源设备后伪码速率和载波均被引入一个与频标频率变化率相关的因子,可视为引入了多普勒偏移量,并明确给出了该偏移量的表达式。该结论与普遍认为的收发同源可以完全抵消频标相噪的影响有较大区别,实验验证结果较好地吻合了理论分析的结论。     

卫星导航接收机鉴相器有限字长效应研究

卫星导航接收机跟踪信号的能力取决于锁相环的跟踪精度,相位鉴别器在锁相环设计中具有重要地位。针对点积鉴相器和二象限反正切鉴相器在输入信号有限字长效应下,对鉴相器性能的影响问题,建立了鉴相器有限字长误差模型。通过理论推导输入信号的统计特性,计算得到鉴相器输入信号均值和方差表达式,并分析了有限字长对鉴相器的均值和方差、收敛区间和鉴别增益的影响情况。由理论和仿真验证,得出了鉴相器在输入信号有效位数3比特以上时,对环路跟踪精度没有影响的结论。     

URBAN FORTRESSES

One of the consequences of the state's inability to protect the life and property of all its citizens—especially in developing countries—is the formation of private alternatives to crime prevention and control. Gated communities, or enclosed neighbourhoods, are one such popular alternative. This article compares the phenomenon of gated communities in two developing countries: South Africa and Brazil. Both countries are plagued by violent crime and share key human development indicators. The article also explores key issues that have been raised around gated communities in both countries. Gated communities can contribute to spatial fragmentation in urban areas, and reflect increased polarisation, fragmentation and diminished solidarity within society. By excluding other urban residents and people from surrounding neighbourhoods, gated communities can contribute to social exclusion, inhibiting the construction of social networks that form the basis of social and economic activities.     

EDITOR'S NOTE

The Nonproliferation Review (NPR) recently interviewed Ambassador Sergio de Queiroz Duarte of Brazil, who presided over the 2005 Seventh Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Ambassador Duarte discussed his views on the outcome of the conference and the future of the treaty. He provided NPR with valuable insights into the outcome of the conference and also shared his thoughts on some of the most pressing issues confronting the NPT today, including the Middle East, nuclear terrorism, elimination of the threat of highly enriched uranium in the civilian nuclear sector, proposals to limit access to the nuclear fuel cycle, nuclear disarmament, and negative security assurances. Blaming the failed conference on a general lack of political commitment among states parties and their unwillingness to negotiate common solutions, Ambassador Duarte stressed that “the conference should face squarely its own failure without my attempting to disguise or sugarcoat the deep differences of view, which must be resolved with courage and determination by the states parties if they want the treaty to remain effective.”?He emphasized that if states fail to act on their overriding interest in upholding the NPT, especially if states parties continue to ignore or disregard their nonproliferation and nuclear disarmament obligations, some states might come to believe that their security interests are no longer served by the treaty. The future prospects of the NPT would then “look dire indeed.”