Selling to strategic and loss‐averse consumers: Stocking,procurement, and product design policies

Motivated by the presence of loss‐averse decision making behavior in practice, this article considers a supply chain consisting of a firm and strategic consumers who possess an S‐shaped loss‐averse utility function. In the model, consumers decide the purchase timing and the firm chooses the inventory level. We find that the loss‐averse consumers' strategic purchasing behavior is determined by their perceived gain and loss from strategic purchase delay, and the given rationing risk. Thus, the firm that is cognizant of this property tailors its inventory stocking policy based on the consumers' loss‐averse behavior such as their perceived values of gain and loss, and their sensitivity to them. We also demonstrate that the firm's equilibrium inventory stocking policy reflects both the economic logic of the traditional newsvendor inventory model, and the loss‐averse behavior of consumers. The equilibrium order quantity is significantly different from those derived from models that assume that the consumers are risk neutral and homogeneous in their valuations. We show that the firm that ignores strategic consumer's loss‐aversion behavior tends to keep an unnecessarily high inventory level that leads to excessive leftovers. Our numerical experiments further reveal that in some extreme cases the firm that ignores strategic consumer's loss‐aversion behavior generates almost 92% more leftovers than the firm that possesses consumers’ loss‐aversion information and takes it into account when making managerial decisions. To mitigate the consumer's forward‐looking behavior, we propose the adoption of the practice of agile supply chain management, which possesses the following attributes: (i) procuring inventory after observing real‐time demand information, (ii) enhanced design (which maintains the current production mix but improves the product performance to a higher level), and (iii) customized design (which maintains the current performance level but increases the variety of the current production line to meet consumers’ specific demands). We show that such a practice can induce the consumer to make early purchases by increasing their rationing risk, increasing the product value, or diversifying the product line. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 435–453, 2015     

MFSK/FFH系统分集合并算法性能对比研究

推导了部分频带干扰最佳干扰系数表达式并进行了仿真验证,描述了多进制频移键控/快跳频(MFSK/FFH)系统、衰落信道和分集合并算法模型,在最坏部分频带干扰和衰落信道下,仿真对比了MFSK/FFH系统采用线性分集合并、限幅线性分集合并、自归一分集合并、排序统计自归一分集合并、乘积分集合并5种分集合并算法时的误码率性能,结果表明:在最坏部分频带干扰和衰落信道下,线性合并性能较差,其他4种算法性能较为相似,Rayleigh衰落信道中排序统计自归一分集合并和乘积分集合并算法性能最优。     

基于WindowsCE的嵌入式漏磁检测仪ADC驱动程序设计

描述了基于WindowsCE的嵌入式漏磁检测仪总体结构设计,介绍了WindowsCE下设备驱动程序模型,并结合$3C2440A处理器的ADC驱动程序设计,详细阐述了基于Windows的流接口驱动程序的设计方法。实验结果表明：利用该方法设计的ADC驱动程序高效可靠,可以为开发类似设备驱动程序提供参考。     

东莞商业中心超长混凝土结构无缝施工技术

在超长钢筋混凝土结构施工中,为防止混凝土受温度应力和干缩应力而引起开裂,通常采用设置后浇带的方法加以处理.一般每30～40 m设一道后浇带,40～50 d后再浇筑膨胀混凝土.这种常规的后浇带施工,工序复杂,施工时间长,质量不易保证.东莞商业中心三期B区H-6项目工程施工中,结合超长混凝土结构的具体特点,采用超长混凝土结...     

执行视图(EV)在美军装备体系决策中的应用

在体系SoS(System-of-Systems)工程领域中,如何构建科学合理的装备体系结构,即装备体系决策一直是众多问题中的热点之一。执行视图EV(Executive Views)是美军在解决体系决策问题方面的最新研究成果。与以往的工程手段相比,执行视图具有便于理解、易于使用、适于高层决策的特点,它为解决庞大复杂的体系决策问题提供了强有力的支持。美国陆军已经率先将执行视图应用于其指挥控制(C2)体系的决策之中,并取得了良好的效果。描述了执行视图产生的背景,通过示例展现了执行视图的开发结果和信息表示方法,并对传统视图和执行视图进行了比较。     

导弹两种蛇形机动对反导舰炮突防效果比较

为探讨反舰导弹的近距离机动突防能力,用仿真方法计算了反舰导弹末端作水平蛇形机动和垂直蛇形机动时对近程反导舰炮武器系统的突防概率,以图示方式给出了两种机动周期、两种舰炮射速、多种机动幅值条件下的计算结果.结果表明,短周期大幅度的频繁机动可显著提高反舰导弹的突防能力,且两种蛇形机动的突防效果大致相同;而提高舰炮射速则是削弱...     

The Naval Intelligence Underpinnings of Reagan's Maritime Strategy

Washington's so-called Maritime Strategy, which sought to apply US naval might against Soviet vulnerabilities on its maritime flanks, came to full fruition during the 1980s. The strategy, which witnessed a major buildup of US naval forces and aggressive exercising in seas proximate to the USSR, also explicitly targeted Moscow”s strategic missile submarines with the aim of pressuring the Kremlin during crises or the early phases of global war. Relying on a variety of interviews and newly declassified documents, the authors assert that the Maritime Strategy represents one of the rare instances in history when intelligence helped lead a nation to completely revise its concept of military operations.     

探析美国新军事战略

奥巴马政府2011年以来发布的一系列军事文件,标志着美国新军事战略的形成。文章依据这些文件,结合三年来美军在世界范围内尤其是亚太地区的实际动向,从战略威胁判断、战略指导方针、战略部署调整、作战指导思想和军事力量建设五个方面对新军事战略的内容及实施情况进行了分析。     

确定冲击载荷识别频段方法探讨

冲击载荷识别中,识别频段的确定直接影响识别精度,根据目前确定信号频段的4种方法,通过分析比较,提出了依实际情况,经载荷频段预估、试识别、平滑处理,而后用载荷频谱函数下降20db确定载荷频段的方法,并通过实例,进一步说明了该方法的可行性。     

Measuring the Impact of Military Spending: How Far Does a DSGE Model Deviate from Reality?

Dunne, Smith, and Willenbockel (2005) argue that the mainstream growth literature has not found military spending to be a significant determinant of economic growth, yet much of the defense economics literature has noted significant effects. This paper revisits this issue by using a DSGE-VAR approach, combining both theoretical and empirical methods. We present that the DSGE approach (estimated with the Bayesian technique) and the Bayesian VAR with the Minnesota Prior both lead to worse in-sample fit than our proposed DSGE-VAR framework. The DSGE-VAR approach reveals that a positive military spending shock boosts the U.S. economy, increasing per capita real GDP growth, consumption, inflation and interest rate. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications. Future investigations such as exploring an optimal military spending policy could adopt the approach in this paper to determine the best model – empirical, theoretical, or a combination of the two.