灰色预测模型在非致命武器经济寿命预测中的应用

针对目前非致命武器经济寿命方面的研究相当缺乏的现状，结合非致命武器的自身特点，在全面分析装备全寿命周期费用的基础上，引入灰色理论，运用GM（1，1）模型对非致命武器的经济寿命周期费用进行估算和预测。通过分析，灰色预测模型具有较高的建模精度，预测方法和结果对非致命武器的经济寿命预测具有很强的实用性。     

A bivariate optimal replacement policy for a cold standby repairable system with repair priority

In this article, an optimal replacement policy for a cold standby repairable system consisting of two dissimilar components with repair priority is studied. Assume that both Components 1 and 2, after repair, are not as good as new, and the main component (Component 1) has repair priority. Both the sequence of working times and that of the components'repair times are generated by geometric processes. We consider a bivariate replacement policy (T,N) in which the system is replaced when either cumulative working time of Component 1 reaches T, or the number of failures of Component 1 reaches N, whichever occurs first. The problem is to determine the optimal replacement policy (T,N)* such that the long run average loss per unit time (or simply the average loss rate) of the system is minimized. An explicit expression of this rate is derived, and then optimal policy (T,N)* can be numerically determined through a two‐dimensional‐search procedure. A numerical example is given to illustrate the model's applicability and procedure, and to illustrate some properties of the optimal solution. We also show that if replacements are made solely on the basis of the number of failures N, or solely on the basis of the cumulative working time T, the former class of policies performs better than the latter, albeit only under some mild conditions. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Polaris,East of Suez: British Plans for a Nuclear Force in the Indo-Pacific, 1964–1968

This article investigates the little-known plans formulated by Harold Wilson's Labour government to deploy Polaris submarines in the Indo-Pacific region. The scheme was first proposed in 1965 as a response to several problems faced by British policy-makers, including China's acquisition of a nuclear capability, Britain's wish to maintain a meaningful position ‘East of Suez’ at reduced cost, and German pressure for equal treatment within NATO on nuclear matters. Despite extensive high-level discussion, the plans were finally abandoned in mid-1968, as Labour moved more decisively to forsake the world role.     

基于云分类器的液体火箭发动机故障诊断方法

本文首先将液体火箭发动机故障诊断问题转化为故障特征的模式分类问题,然后针对当前模式分类方法难以处理不确定性信息、属性特征空间的划分过硬等缺陷,结合云模型和云变换研究,提出了一种基于云分类器的液体火箭发动机起动过程故障诊断方法。历次试车数据的验证结果表明,该方法能够及时准确识别发动机起动工作过程中的故障模式。     

封装对螺旋线圈发射器互感梯度的影响

互感梯度是决定线圈炮加速力的主要因素。本文以螺旋线圈炮为例,建立了计算互感梯度的二维有限元模型,对四种不同属性的封装材料和封装尺寸对互感梯度的影响做出了分析和比较,并给出了不同的封装材料及尺寸下封装的电流密度和磁场分布图。分析表明,互感梯度受到封装材料电导率和磁导率的双重制约。电导率决定了封装中感应涡流的大小;磁导率决定了对磁场的加强程度。减小封装与线圈的间距,导磁材料的磁场加强效果更好,而导电材料的涡流效应也更明显;增加封装的厚度,导磁材料可以更好地增强磁场,但导电材料由于电阻更小涡流效应更明显。为了实现互感梯度的最大化,可以在减小封装与驱动线圈间距并增加封装厚度的情况下使用高磁导率的硅钢片制作封装,硅钢片的厚度应该尽量小从而削弱涡流效应。     

French war plans, 1914: The ‘Balance of Power Paradox’

Historians have noted that both German and French war preparation in 1914 fell victim to the inadequacies of traditional threat-based planning: vulnerability to ‘threat deception’ which caused each to underestimate or mischaracterize the threat; a tendency to ‘mirror-image’ by fitting intelligence into preconceived notions of how the enemy was expected to behave; and ‘group think’ that discouraged a serious consideration of alternative scenarios. This article applies the ‘Balance of Power Paradox’ to explain why, at the dawn of the twentieth century, war planning in both Germany and France was driven by an acute sense of weakness which encouraged each side to fashion highly ‘risk acceptant’ strategies. In particular, he examines why and how French commander-in-chief General Joseph Joffre evolved and rationalized his audacious, and disastrous, Plan XVII to leverage French weaknesses and prevent the stronger German Army from bringing the full weight of its military strength to bear against France. The potential implication of this historical vignette is that leaders, and by extension military planners, of both strong and weak states focus on the constraints faced by their opponents, and assume that they can avoid the limitations of their position, while their opponent cannot.     

一种对时钟偏差不敏感的无源RFID标签编解码算法

基于我国自主射频识别空中接口协议GJB 7377.1-2011,提出了一种对时钟偏差不敏感的无源RFID标签编解码算法。该算法充分考虑了时钟频率偏差、计数误差、分频误差等对编解码的影响,推导出了标签正确编解码所需的时钟约束条件,并得到了标签编解码的基本思路和方法。仿真结果表明,提出的编解码算法对标签时钟精度要求较低,只要时钟频率大于1.60 MHz,即可满足要求,大大降低了硬件实现的难度和复杂度,与同类实现方式相比,功耗降低了近50%。     

载体干扰磁场补偿方法

获得载体航行路径上各点地磁场的精确测量值是地磁匹配导航的前提,而载体上各种干扰磁场的存在会引起磁力仪输出的偏差,影响匹配的精度,因此必须对载体干扰磁场进行补偿。在分析载体干扰磁场特性的基础上,提出利用矢量测量值对地磁场总场值进行补偿的方法。该方法首先根据矢量磁力仪的测量模型得到关于载体磁场参数的非线性方程,然后采用非线性参数估计方法估计出精确的载体干扰磁场系数,最后再利用估计结果对测量值进行补偿。通过仿真对该方法的有效性进行研究,并设计了半实物实验对其实用性进行验证。结果表明采用本文提出的方法补偿后地磁场总场值的测量误差在20nT以内,而且该方法参数估计精度高,应用方便,可以有效地对导航载体干扰磁场进行补偿。     

半预制破片PELE弹丸对武装直升机毁伤效能

为研究半预制破片PELE弹丸对武装直升机的毁伤效能,选取代表性的阿帕奇武装直升机为研究对象,建立了阿帕奇武装直升机关键部件驾驶舱和发动机舱的等效模型,在此基础上应用ANSYS/LS-DYNA就半预制破片PELE弹丸对阿帕奇武装直升机的毁伤效能进行了数值分析.结果表明:半预制破片PELE弹丸能有效穿透阿帕奇武装直升机的防护装甲,在穿透防护靶后弹丸壳体大面积碎裂,产生大量具有较高轴向剩余速度和一定径向飞散速度的破片,形成一个大面积的破片场,这些破片及弹丸剩余部分可对武装直升机内部人员及仪器设备造成有效毁伤,极大地增强了PELE弹丸的毁伤效能.     

A LONG‐RUN ANALYSIS OF DEFENCE SPENDING IN THE NATO COUNTRIES (1960–99)

This paper analyses the long‐run demand for defence output through a homogeneous treatment of 15 NATO member countries between 1960 and 1999. We carry out a progressive study of the interactions between either defence spending or defence burden and their main determinants: income, external threat and allied military spending. To that end, we use time‐series analysis with endogenously determined structural breaks. We further consider individual country functions related to one another through a common correlated effects method, in order to take into account explicitly the connections between members of an alliance.