Optimal redesign decisions through failure rate estimates

To reduce the time-to-market of newly developed systems, manufacturers increasingly adopt strategies where systems are brought to market while system field reliability is still uncertain. These systems are typically sold under performance-based contracts, which incentivizes potential customers to invest in them despite reliability uncertainty. Such contracts make the manufacturer (partly) responsible for the availability of the system. Subsequently, when field reliability is lower than anticipated, the manufacturer may choose to redesign the system to avoid high contract penalties. Redesign is a costly effort which may substantially increase field reliability. Deciding when to redesign is challenging, especially because the initial failure rate estimate by the system's engineers is refined over time as failure data accrues. We propose a model that endogenizes the failure rate updating to analyze this tactical redesign decision. We study additive and multiplicative redesigns and show that the optimal policy has a control limit structure. We benchmark our optimal policy against a static counterpart numerically, and conclude that basing redesign decisions on the updated estimate of the failure rate can substantially reduce costs.     

Verification and validation of detonation modeling

The mathematical model used to describe the detonation multi-physics phenomenon is usually given by highly coupled nonlinear partial differential equations. Numerical simulation and the computer aided engineering (CAE) technique has become the third pillar of detonation research, along with theory and experiment, due to the detonation phenomenon is difficult to explain by the theoretical analysis, and the cost required to accredit the reliability of detonation products is very high, even some physical experiments of detonation are impossible. The numerical simulation technique can solve these complex problems in the real situation repeatedly and reduce the design cost and time stunningly. But the reliability of numerical simulation software and the serviceability of the computational result seriously hinders the extension, application and the self-restoration of the simulation software, restricts its independently innovational ability. This article deals with the physical modeling, numerical simulation, and software development of detonation in a unified way. Verification and validation and uncertainty quantification (V&V&UQ) is an important approach in ensuring the credibility of the modeling and simulation of detonation. V&V of detonation is based on our independently developed detonation multi-physics software-LAD2D. We propose the verification method based on mathematical theory and program function as well as availability of its program execution. Validation is executed by comparing with the experiment data. At last, we propose the future prospect of numerical simulation software and the CAE technique, and we also pay attention to the research direction of V&V&UQ.     

塔康信标扩展数据广播抗噪声性能分析

为扩展塔康信标数据广播功能,保持同导航功能的兼容性,分析了信标信号格式和系统要求,提出了基于OOK、PPM、DPSK的数据广播方法,将数据信号插在基准群之后播发。研究了高斯白噪声对3种数据广播信号的影响,分别推导出3种数据广播系统误码率公式。仿真结果表明:抗噪声性能从好到坏依次为OOK信号、DPSK信号、PPM信号;信噪比大于15 d B时,DPSK同PPM误码率基本相同,均小于6×10-5。同时,由于PPM方法数据广播速率高于OOK,实现复杂度低于DPSK,具有较好的综合性能。     

变速跳频通信抗跟踪干扰性能的研究

针对常规跳频通信抗跟踪干扰能力差的问题,分析跟踪干扰原理,提出变速跳频通信。建立数学模型,在干扰容限、压制比和追踪概率方面进行理论分析,分析变速跳频通信抗跟踪干扰对误码率的性能,并用MATLAB进行仿真验证。     

基于战备完好率的军用飞机维修费用需求确定方法

军用飞机维修费用需求与战备完好率要求密切相关,为保持飞机一定的战备完好率水平,必须投入一定的维修费用。维修费用投入多,则维修设备齐全,维修人员维修能力高,维修备件充足,飞机故障修复时间短,战备完好率高;维修费用投入少,会造成维修设备短缺,设施破旧,维修人员培训不到位,维修备件供应不足等各种问题,直接影响战备完好率水平。     

相位差变化率的快速高精度测量及精度分析

由于阵元间相位差变化率这一观测量与通道不一致性关系不大,信号到达两阵元间的相位差变化率常用于无源定位测量中。提出了一种新的快速高精度的相位差变化率测量方法,利用分时间片思想,首先通过对无模糊相位差进行一次相位平移,得到各个时间片含模糊的相位差值;然后对得到的各个时间片的含模糊相位差进行一次相位平移,得到各时间片间相对无模糊的相位差;最后对相对无模糊相位差采用最小二乘算法求得相位差变化率。理论分析和仿真实验表明,本算法可以很好地解决测量中由于相位模糊造成的相位差抖动问题,能够在短时间内得到高精度相位差变化率信息,可以满足定位要求。     

基于FPGA的可变速率PSK数字解调器实现

针对QPSK变速率调制数字系统,提出了一种新的基于现场可编程门阵列(FPGA)实现方法,该系统可以支持4.88 Kb/s到2 Mb/s和更高的连续比特速率。设计采用混合乘法器、数控振荡器(NCO)和积分-梳状滤波器(CIC),并给出了系统中载波和信号恢复电路的设计结构,且可以移植到任何FPGA器件。提出的设计在Xilinx Virtex-5 FPGA平台进行了硬件测试。硬件实现结果显示,采用本方法实现的解调器,表现出优越的使用效率。     

Dynamic signatures and their use in comparing the reliability of new and used systems

The signature of a system with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) component lifetimes is a vector whose ith element is the probability that the ith component failure is fatal to the system. System signatures have been found to be quite useful tools in the study and comparison of engineered systems. In this article, the theory of system signatures is extended to versions of signatures applicable in dynamic reliability settings. It is shown that, when a working used system is inspected at time t and it is noted that precisely k failures have occurred, the vector s [0,1]^n‐k whose jth element is the probability that the (k + j)th component failure is fatal to the system, for j = 1,2,2026;,n ‐ k, is a distribution‐free measure of the design of the residual system. Next, known representation and preservation theorems for system signatures are generalized to dynamic versions. Two additional applications of dynamic signatures are studied in detail. The well‐known “new better than used” (NBU) property of aging systems is extended to a uniform (UNBU) version, which compares systems when new and when used, conditional on the known number of failures. Sufficient conditions are given for a system to have the UNBU property. The application of dynamic signatures to the engineering practice of “burn‐in” is also treated. Specifically, we consider the comparison of new systems with working used systems burned‐in to a given ordered component failure time. In a reliability economics framework, we illustrate how one might compare a new system to one successfully burned‐in to the kth component failure, and we identify circumstances in which burn‐in is inferior (or is superior) to the fielding of a new system. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

稳态法测量热系数的计算方法改进研究

不良导体热系数测量普遍采用的是稳态法,但表面散热率的间接测量和样品侧面散热与漏热给测量带来一定误差,使得热系数实际测量值略微偏大。介绍了新的实验装置和实验数值计算方法,并且分析研究了样品边缘（侧面）热损失的物理模型,提出了新的数学模型和数据处理方法,纠正了这些偏差,与实验吻合较好。     

Traffic channeling under uncertain conversion rates on e-commerce platforms

Traffic is the lifeblood of every e-commerce platform. The question of how to channel traffic to merchants operating on a platform lies at the heart of platform management. We consider a platform on which two independent merchants sell their products. Merchants compete on inventory in the sense that some of the unmet demand at one merchant will spill over to the other. The platform channels traffic based on products' conversion rates to maximize the total sale on the platform. We show that traffic channeling plays three roles. First, it allows more efficient allocation of traffic; that is, the merchant with a high conversion rate is given a higher priority in receiving traffic. Second, it allows the platform to control demand spillover between the merchants to maximize total sales. The platform either facilitates or prevents demand spillover, depending on product substitutability. Third, traffic channeling intensifies competition between the merchants and hence increases the total inventory. More efficient allocation of traffic and the increase in inventory increase sales inequality between the merchants. In contrast, demand spillover decreases sales inequality. While the platform always benefits from traffic channeling, the merchants do not benefit when their products are moderately substitutable. Interestingly, when the two products are owned and sold by the same merchant, the opposite happens–traffic channeling always benefits the merchant but may hurt the platform. Our study provides a basis for informed discussions on how platforms should channel traffic in response to conversion rates, and how traffic channeling affects the welfare of merchants and platforms.