航天测控系统任务可靠性分析的EOOPN模型

提出了一种可用于航天测控系统任务可靠性分析的扩展面向对象Petri网（extend object-oriented Petri nets, EOOPN）模型,旨在对给定的航天测控方案进行可靠性评估分析。针对问题特点明确了OOPN扩展思路,给出了EOOPN模型的形式化定义、运行规则和建模步骤,模型通过引入公共库所、激发弧、消息变迁和消息处理函数等概念,体现了面向对象的思想,具有很好的层次性和模块性。所建立的EOOPN模型能够完整的描述航天测控系统的组成和任务特点。通过对算例模型仿真运行,表明实验结果具有良好收敛性,与Markov解析值对比误差在1%以内,从而验证了模型的有效性。     

基于搜索论的远程反舰导弹搜捕概率建模方法

针对传统捕捉概率模型难以满足远程反舰导弹机动搜捕概率建模计算的问题,提出利用搜索论进行导弹机动搜捕概率计算的建模方法。该方法根据目标机动规律建立其分布概率密度函数,并依据末制导雷达发现目标概率的"倒四次方律"及弹目相对运动轨迹,构建其探测函数,通过求取两者之积的积分实现搜捕概率计算。计算结果显示:若远程反舰导弹不采取机动搜捕策略,目标指示误差增加1km时搜捕概率降低0.47,目标速度增加10节时搜捕概率降低0.3,末制导雷达搜索半径减小50%时搜捕概率降低0.3;若采取平行搜捕策略,上述因素对其影响大幅下降。可见,该方法综合考虑了目标机动规律、传感器探测规律、导弹搜捕策略,可实现远程反舰导弹机动搜捕概率的解算。     

NCO相位截断对频域抗干扰性能影响分析

频域抗干扰易于工程实现、窄带干扰抑制性能好,是目前全球卫星导航系统(Global Navigation Satellite System,GNSS)抗干扰接收机中广泛采用的抗干扰算法。频域抗干扰接收机普遍采用数控振荡器(numerically controlled oscillator, NCO)生成本振信号。由于硬件约束,通常需要对NCO进行相位截断。而NCO相位截断是否合理对抗干扰性能影响较大。针对该问题,从NCO相位截断导致的本振杂散着手,从理论上分析其对混频和频域抗干扰环节的影响。在此基础上,给出一种NCO查找表地址位宽的理论计算模型,使得接收机的载噪比损耗接近无NCO相位截断的频域抗干扰接收机。仿真表明,抑制带宽大于100kHz、干信比小于80dBc的窄带干扰时,计算的NCO查找表地址位宽不超过10bit。无NCO相位截断的频域抗干扰接收机相比,采用NCO混频的抗干扰接收机的载噪比损耗最多增加0.6dB。     

基于波导干涉条纹的目标距离特征量提取方法

浅海波导中目标辐射噪声LOFAR谱图存在明暗相间的干涉条纹,从中可以提取出目标距离特征量信息,它反映了目标运动过程中的距离变化率。低信噪比情况下,条纹特征不够清晰,提取的距离特征量值精度会降低。提出了一种边缘定向增强型偏微分方程去噪方法,对LOFAR谱图进行处理,使条纹特征更加明显。海试数据处理结果表明,去噪处理后提取出的距离特征量精度明显提高。为满足实时性需要,提出了基于CUDA的距离特征量实时处理方法,实验结果表明能大幅提高算法运行速度。     

MoDTP作锂基润滑脂添加剂的摩擦学性能研究

考察二烷基二硫代磷酸氧钼(Mo DTP)作锂基润滑脂添加剂时的摩擦学性能,并与传统添加剂二硫化钼(Mo S2)进行对比;采用扫描电子显微镜(SEM)及能量色散X射线分析仪(EDX)对长磨后钢球磨斑表面形貌及元素进行观测和分析,探讨Mo DTP的润滑作用机理。结果表明:在不同荷载下,Mo DTP作添加剂比Mo S2具有更好的减摩抗磨性能和更高的PB值,但PD值较低;摩擦过程中Mo DTP与摩擦副表面发生反应,生成了摩擦学性能显著的润滑层。     

Q_2黄土调整吸力的非饱和三轴压缩试验研究

通过对Q2黄土进行调整吸力的非饱和三轴压缩试验,研究了浸水湿化程度对Q2黄土力学特性的影响。试验表明:不同浸水湿化程度的Q2黄土,其应力应变曲线为弱软化型,浸水湿化程度越高,软化程度越弱,浸水湿化至饱和时可近似看作理想硬化型;轴向应变较小时,Q2黄土的天然结构保持良好,应力随应变的增大而增大,随着轴向应变进一步增大,其天然结构逐渐被破坏,应力随之先缓慢上升后逐渐减小直至稳定;浸水湿化会同时引起土体应力状态和土体结构的改变,屈服应力随浸水湿化程度的提高而减小,在浸水湿化接近饱和时屈服应力变化最快,土体结构变化最大;形成年代早的Q2黄土细粒质量分数高,结构特征区别于Q3黄土,因而呈现出不同的力学特征。     

Book review

La Conversion économique du secteur militaire, J. FONTANEL, Economica, Paris, 1994, pp. 112. Paperback. ISBN 2–7178–2650–5.     

Country Survey XIII: Japan's security posture and defense industry prospects

Defense budgets in Japan have been complicated compromises from numerous inputs ‐ including threat perceptions, domestic industrial/technological base development, support for the bilateral security treaty with the United States and internal bureaucratic politics ‐ but with the fall of the former Soviet Union, the clearest justification for higher spending disappeared. Double‐digit defense spending increases that were common in the 1980s have been replaced by annual increases lower than present inflation rates, resulting in negative real growth in the country's defense budget. Domestic economic problems and consistent government pressures for smaller budgets have further slowed annual growth in total spending and have contributed to lower procurement budgets. As a result, the domestic Japanese defense industry is facing far more constrained conditions from the growth years of a decade before.

Government policymakers are examining Japan's regional security environment as well as its alliance with the United States to determine the appropriate course for the country to take in the coming years. The formal security treaty with the United States is likely to remain a major element of government positions, but other aspects of the country's overall security posture are open to debate. Perceptions of a reduced threat environment are fueling additional pressures for defense budget cuts.

The domestic defense industry seeks means to assure its survival in domestic defense markets in this constrained environment. Expansion into overseas markets to offset declining domestic markets is an option that currently is constrained by policy restrictions on arms exports. Industry is advocating re‐examination of those policies and unlike earlier years, government appears willing to respond positively but cautiously to this lobbying.     

Sequential learning versus no learning in Bayesian regression models

We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014     

递归划分的标签约束可达性计算方法

现实世界中的图往往在结点和边上包含描述信息,可达性查询是图数据管理和挖掘中的基本操作之一。针对图数据中标签约束的可达性计算问题,提出一种基于递归划分的可达性计算方法 RP-Hop。该算法基于层次划分思想,利用独立集性质,在保持标签和可达性前提下对大规模图进行递归划分,并结合贪婪扩展思想和递归编码,为标签约束的可达性查询提供压缩索引。经过合成和真实数据集上的实验,结果表明,RP-Hop算法不仅降低了索引大小和构建时间,而且提高了查询效率。