Screening multi-dimensional heterogeneous populations for infectious diseases under scarce testing resources,with application to COVID-19

Testing provides essential information for managing infectious disease outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When testing resources are scarce, an important managerial decision is who to test. This decision is compounded by the fact that potential testing subjects are heterogeneous in multiple dimensions that are important to consider, including their likelihood of being disease-positive, and how much potential harm would be averted through testing and the subsequent interventions. To increase testing coverage, pooled testing can be utilized, but this comes at a cost of increased false-negatives when the test is imperfect. Then, the decision problem is to partition the heterogeneous testing population into three mutually exclusive sets: those to be individually tested, those to be pool tested, and those not to be tested. Additionally, the subjects to be pool tested must be further partitioned into testing pools, potentially containing different numbers of subjects. The objectives include the minimization of harm (through detection and mitigation) or maximization of testing coverage. We develop data-driven optimization models and algorithms to design pooled testing strategies, and show, via a COVID-19 contact tracing case study, that the proposed testing strategies can substantially outperform the current practice used for COVID-19 contact tracing (individually testing those contacts with symptoms). Our results demonstrate the substantial benefits of optimizing the testing design, while considering the multiple dimensions of population heterogeneity and the limited testing capacity.     

Natural convection effects on TNT solidification inside a shaped charge mold

High Explosive Anti-Tank (HEAT) warheads and ammunitions are frequently produced by explosive casting inside an axis-symmetric mold with an inverted conical geometry in the basis. In order to prevent manufacturing defects, the solidification process must be controlled. In this study, a dimensionless solidification model has been proposed to investigate the heat transfer considering the natural convection inside the liquid explosive and the numerical simulations were performed by using COMSOL Multiphysics and Modeling Software, employing trinitrotoluene (TNT) thermophysical properties. The effect of three different boundary conditions on the top of the mold have been evaluated: convection, adiabatic and isothermal. It has been observed that solidification process was faster for convection case and slower for isothermal case, while an intermediary total solidification time value was found for adiabatic case. Moreover, liquid explosive was completely surrounded by solid explosive during the solidification process for convection case and also for adiabatic case through the end of the process. Otherwise, it was not observed for isothermal case. The natural convection effects promoted a vortex inside the liquid explosive, accelerating the heat transfer process. It has been concluded that isothermal mold top boundary condition should be preferred to prevent manufacturing defects, avoiding high thermal stress.     

弹药保障CGF智能决策模型研究与实现

弹药保障CGF智能决策系统是装备保障效能评估系统必不可少的组成部分,其核心是对人类决策行为的建模与仿真.在介绍智能决策含义和决策过程的基础上,重点研究和分析了CGF智能决策行为,构建了CGF智能决策模型.针对决策过程中由于无法获得人脑思维方式而导致行为模型的表达、描述、推理等受到怀疑的问题,在弹药保障CGF智能决策模型中,将决策行为分解为任务决策、过程决策和动作决策3个步骤,接近于人类思维方式.同时,对实现弹药保障CGF智能决策具有关键作用的任务决策原则、过程决策方法和动作决策规则进行了研究,并给出了应用实例.实例证明,弹药保障CGF智能决策方法逻辑清晰,易于理解和维护,便于实现.     

新型弹药装备静电放电试验研究

静电放电试验是安全性评价的一项重要内容.参照IEC 61000-4-2标准,提出弹药装备静电放电试验方法为间接静电放电和直接静电放电.该方法拓展应用标准的"开放等级",构建试验系统,并进行相应的试验研究,从而为新型弹药装备定型或静电安全性评价提供了全面评价方法.     

网络化巡飞攻击弹药鉴定试验方法研究

网络化巡飞攻击弹药(NLAA)是一种新型的信息化弹药,采用无人机技术、弹药技术和数据通信技术等多项高新技术,是未来弹药领域发展的重要方向.针对网络化巡飞攻击弹药的特点和关键技术,提出了网络化巡飞攻击弹药在鉴定试验中需要开展结构强度、制导精度、数据链测试、安全性和可靠性、毁伤评估以及弹道测试等关键试验技术研究,为网络化巡飞攻击弹药定型试验技术研究提供了方向.     

基于系统理论方法的炮兵弹药消耗量预测修正方法

我军决策人员长期受到“弹药迷雾”的困扰,弹药保障中需求预计是一个涉及多因素、彼此交错的复杂系统问题。本文基于系统理论,提出了一种融合解释结构模型（ISM）和系统动力学（SD）的弹药消耗预测修正方法。在联合作战背景下对炮兵群弹药消耗问题进行研究,使用解释结构模型研究弹药系统,对弹药保障需求影响因素的相互关系进行了科学的分析和评价,分析了影响弹药保障需求的因素,进而运用系统动力学研究可控制条件下的预测问题,从实验数据分析兵力比对弹药消耗的影响规律,得到有用的结论,并结合战例检验,证明了方法有效,修正了基于任务量公式计算方法的不足,提高了预测的精度。     

弹药生产响应能力综合评价指标权重组合方法

针对战时弹药需求的不确定性而造成对生产能力冲击的特点,为科学地确定综合评价指标权重,评价军工企业弹药生产响应能力,运用基于偏差平方和最小的综合评价指标粗糙集与网络分析法的权重组合算法,将定性与定量评价方法相结合,为客观评价企业弹药生产响应能力提供了科学的依据,对提高弹药生产决策的军事经济效益具有重要的意义。     

单装战损评估仿真系统的设计与实现

首先介绍了系统模型的建立;接着阐述了系统功能、结构以及各子系统的设计与实现;继而介绍了系统实现所用到的关键技术和方法;最后利用该系统,进行了某杀爆战斗部对卡车毁伤的仿真试验,得出了汽车部件毁伤分布及毁伤等级等结果。仿真结果表明,该仿真结果与试验数据基本吻合。该系统可以为维修保障及器材供应计划的制定提供参考依据。     

弹药塑料包装透湿机理与应用研究

对弹药塑料包装材料的透湿机理、测试方法、透湿原因、影响因素等进行了分析,并针对塑料包装材料在弹药中的应用现状,提出了提高弹药塑料包装防潮性能的建议。     

包装对弹药保障时效的影响

从包装的角度分析了在时间、运力不受限和受限的情况下对保障时间的影响,同时结合我军弹药保障的特点,对弹药保障模式与弹药包装模式的优化组合进行了分析。