武器装备可用性设计对寿命周期费用的影响及控制

可用性设计是装备综合保障分析的重要内容.合适的可用度指标不但要满足装备效能要求,还应满足费用约束条件.为了设计并选择出费效比最高的保障方案,研究了可用性设计对装备寿命周期费用的影响,提出了运用可用度门限值来控制寿命周期费用的方法,并举例说明具体的应用.最后,就保障性设计中的费用权衡问题提出了几点建议.     

软件保障费用估算模型研究

分析了软件保障费用的基本构成和一般表达式，构建了软件错误更改费用估算模型、新功能保障费用估算模型和有时间限制的保障费用估算模型，并结合实例进行了分析。软件保障模型估算的研究对提高软件保障费用估算的精度和效率有重要意义。     

云计算系统虚拟机内存资源预留方法

为降低消费者租借云计算系统资源的开销,提出了成本约束的内存预留随机整数线性规划模型及方法。结合预留计划和按需计划的内存资源价格,设计包含成本及资源总量约束条件的随机开销函数,并以函数期望值最小化为目标,基于内存消耗量概率分布求出优化的内存预留量。试验表明,消费者利用该方法租借资源的开销比利用预留计划、按需计划及同类方法租借资源的开销更小。     

基于风险控制的装备供应链网络设计模型

针对风险管理中的装备供应链正向（供应）网络设计问题，在对装备供应链风险和成本进行量化分析的基础上，综合考虑风险和成本2方面因素，建立了基于风险控制的装备供应链网络设计优化模型。并设计了遗传算法对模型进行求解，给出在指定风险水平下最优设计方案与总成本。最后通过实例分析和计算，结果表明，该优化模型合理、有效、可行。     

一类带容量限制的运输问题

考虑一类带容量限制的运输问题.采用构造辅助网络的方法,将运输网络中的每个配送中心均拆分成两个节点,构造出新弧,形成新的网络,把此类运输问题转换为最小费用流问题来解决.并在此基础上,考虑运输网络中配送中心的容量扩张问题.     

有限次故障小修模型

针对具有小修的维修策略问题,在提出一定的假设条件后,建立经过长期运行后的单位时间期望损失的模型,研究并分析了有限次故障小修模型,最后通过相应的示例验证了研究结果。     

Evaluating cost and reliability integrated performance of stochastic logistics systems

The significance of integrating reliability into logistics performance has been established [The Logistics Performance Index and Its Indicators, World Bank International Trade and Transport Departments, (2010)]. Hence, as a response to the work by the World Bank, the present article aims to evaluate the performance index R_b,d of logistics systems as the probability that a specified demand d can be distributed successfully through multistate arc capacities from the source to the destination under the constraint that the total distribution cost should not exceed the cost limitation b. This article provides a pioneering approach for a straightforward computation of the performance index R_b,d. The proposed algorithm is a hybrid between the polynomial time capacity‐scaling algorithm, which was presented by Edmonds and Karp [JACM 19 (1972)], and the decomposition algorithm, which was presented by Jane and Laih [IEEE (2008)]. Currently, the proposed approach is the only algorithm that can directly compute R_b,d. An illustration of the proposed algorithm is presented. The results of the computational experiments indicate that the presented algorithm outperforms existing algorithms. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

灰色神经网络的鱼雷经济寿命预测

为减少军费开支、降低鱼雷全寿命费用,从经济性角度提出了鱼雷最佳服役年限模型。利用灰色等维新息GM(1,1)模型对鱼雷年度使用维修费用进行预测;采用分组的思想将原始数据分为多组,采用神经网络对灰色模型的预测残差进行修正,以提高预测精度。通过实际算例预测了鱼雷经济寿命,从而证明了模型的实际应用价值。     

基于偏最小二乘回归的军用飞机采购价格预测

考虑到军用飞机采购价格样本数据少、难于预测的特点和偏最小二乘回归方法在处理小样本多元数据方面的优势,提出一种基于偏最小二乘回归的军用飞机价格预测方法.偏最小二乘回归首先提取第一、第二主成分对采购价格样本的特异点进行剔除;然后进行变量投影重要度分析来筛选变量;最后,偏最小二乘回归对筛选的变量进行回归建立军用飞机价格预测模型,并对军用飞机价格进行预测.结果表明,在军用飞机价格预测方面,与未筛选变量的回归模型和逐步多元回归相比,经过变量筛选的偏最小二乘回归模型预测的精度更高,更能体现采购价格与飞机性能参数之间的关系.     

Facility location for an extraterrestrial production/distribution system

This paper extends traditional production/distribution system analysis to address raw material, factories, and markets located beyond Earth. It explains the eventual advantages of such operations and discusses likely sites in the solar system. It furnishes a typology for production/distribution systems, assessing the fit of each type to space operations. It briefly reviews the physics of orbits. It develops transportation and inventory cost functions for the simplest case of Hohmann trajectories, and for transportation between circular orbits of similar radii using higher‐energy trajectories. These cost functions are used to derive a model of production/distribution system cost, the minimization of which selects an optimal factory location. The paper suggests potential extensions to this work, and concludes with ideas for location research on the novel reaches of extraterrestrial space. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.