论强化消防部队管理执行力

安全事故频发,引发部队管理危机,究其原因是多方面的,但是,管理中的＂三弱化＂是主因。如何提升管理中的执行力,应从四个方面入手,即强化培训式管理、走动式管理、数字化管理、问责制管理。夯实执行根基,提升执行监管,量化执行标准,重施执行奖惩,确保消防部队管理执行力的提升,是减少安全事故,确保部队高度安全稳定的根本途径。     

Capacity expansion with lead times and autocorrelated random demand

The combination of uncertain demand and lead times for installing capacity creates the risk of shortage during the lead time, which may have serious consequences for a service provider. This paper analyzes a model of capacity expansion with autocorrelated random demand and a fixed lead time for adding capacity. To provide a specified level of service, a discrete time expansion timing policy uses a forecast error‐adjusted minimum threshold level of excess capacity position to trigger an expansion. Under this timing policy, the expansion cost can be minimized by solving a deterministic dynamic program. We study the effects of demand characteristics and the lead time length on the capacity threshold. Autocorrelation acts similarly to randomness in hastening expansions but has a smaller impact, especially when lead times are short. However, the failure either to recognize autocorrelation or to accurately estimate its extent can cause substantial policy errors. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

微分对策界栅理论在舰艇作战能力评估中的应用

作战能力是表征战斗舰艇战术技术性能的一项重要指标,如何正确评价舰艇的作战能力一直是军事运筹研究的热点.利用定性微分对策的界栅理论研究了一类作战问题,通过构造捕获区面积和咽喉区域面积,并以此作为动态评估舰艇作战能力的衡量指标.研究结果可为综合评价舰艇作战能力提供一条新途径.     

潜艇的承载力与水下动力抗沉

阐明了潜艇承载力图谱的一种新算法,分析了危险舵卡的基本挽回方法及其衡准,论述了当前水下动力抗沉的实用方法及评价指标.     

消防部队抢险救援战斗力评估

以消防部队参与抢险救援战斗实例引出消防抢险救援战斗力的评估问题,并对评估的意义从组织指挥、消防员的安全、特勤队伍的发展角度进行了论述,重点剖析了影响战斗力评估的人员、装备、自然、组织等因素,对评估的组织从专家组成和制度建设两个方面提出了具体的建议。     

Inventory management with advance capacity information

An important aspect of supply chain management is dealing with demand and supply uncertainty. The uncertainty of future supply can be reduced if a company is able to obtain advance capacity information (ACI) about future supply/production capacity availability from its supplier. We address a periodic‐review inventory system under stochastic demand and stochastic limited supply, for which ACI is available. We show that the optimal ordering policy is a state‐dependent base‐stock policy characterized by a base‐stock level that is a function of ACI. We establish a link with inventory models that use advance demand information (ADI) by developing a capacitated inventory system with ADI, and we show that equivalence can only be set under a very specific and restrictive assumption, implying that ADI insights will not necessarily hold in the ACI environment. Our numerical results reveal several managerial insights. In particular, we show that ACI is most beneficial when there is sufficient flexibility to react to anticipated demand and supply capacity mismatches. Further, most of the benefits can be achieved with only limited future visibility. We also show that the system parameters affecting the value of ACI interact in a complex way and therefore need to be considered in an integrated manner. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Dynamic order acceptance and capacity planning on a single bottleneck resource

We present a tactical decision model for order acceptance and capacity planning that maximizes the expected profits from accepted orders, allowing for aggregate regular as well as nonregular capacity. The stream of incoming order arrivals is the main source of uncertainty in dynamic order acceptance and the company only has forecasts of the main properties of the future incoming projects. Project proposals arrive sequentially with deterministic interarrival times and a decision on order acceptance and capacity planning needs to be made each time a proposal arrives and its project characteristics are revealed. We apply stochastic dynamic programming to determine a profit threshold for the accept/reject decision as well as to deterministically allocate a single bottleneck resource to the accepted projects, both with an eye on maximizing the expected revenues within the problem horizon. We derive a number of managerial insights based on an analysis of the influence of project and environmental characteristics on optimal project selection and aggregate capacity usage. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Lateral capacity exchange and its impact on capacity investment decisions

We study the problem of capacity exchange between two firms in anticipation of the mismatch between demand and capacity, and its impact on firm's capacity investment decisions. For given capacity investment levels of the two firms, we demonstrate how capacity price may be determined and how much capacity should be exchanged when either manufacturer acts as a Stackelberg leader in the capacity exchange game. By benchmarking against the centralized system, we show that a side payment may be used to coordinate the capacity exchange decisions. We then study the firms' capacity investment decisions using a biform game framework in which capacity investment decisions are made individually and exchange decisions are made as in a centralized system. We demonstrate the existence and uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium capacity investment levels and study the impact of firms' share of the capacity exchange surplus on their capacity investment levels.© 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

三明治复合材料加筋L型接头的弯曲承载能力和损伤机理

针对一种三明治复合材料加筋L型接头,介绍了其结构形式和成型工艺,通过试验测试了接头的弯曲承载能力,分析了接头的破坏模式,并对其损伤机理进行了研究,以探求接头的技术改进路径。研究结果表明:L型接头具有良好的吸能效果,在结构发生大变形破坏时,仍具有较高的弯曲承载能力;L型接头的破坏主要发生在垂横加强筋的相交处,初始损伤是相交处侧面的玻璃钢和芯材发生界面分离;工程上应将改进L型接头垂横加强筋相交处的蒙皮和芯材之间的连接工艺作为提高接头承载能力的技术路径。     

有限维修能力下多级保障系统装备时变可用度评估及保障方案优化

备件库存和站点维修能力是影响备件维修周转的重要因素,制约着装备的使用效果。针对备件需求随任务阶段动态变化时装备保障方案的评估和优化问题,考虑站点维修能力对备件维修过程的影响,结合METRIC建模方法和动态排队理论,建立了有限维修能力下多级保障系统装备时变可用度评估模型。在评估模型基础之上,以保障费用为优化目标、装备可用度为约束条件,建立任务期内多级保障系统保障方案优化模型。以任务期内的最低可用度所对应的备件短缺数为观测值,分析各项资源的边际效益值,采用边际优化算法对各项资源进行优化计算。算例分析表明,评估模型能够计算多级保障系统任务期内各阶段装备可用度;保障方案优化模型和方法能够得到各项保障资源的优化配置方案。提出的模型和优化方法能够为装备保障人员制订合理的保障方案提供决策支持。