The role of covariate balance in observational studies

Observational data are prevalent in many fields of research, and it is desirable to use this data to make causal inferences. Because this data is nonrandom, additional assumptions are needed in order to construct unbiased estimators for causal effects. The standard assumption is strong ignorability, though it is often impossible to achieve the level of covariate balance that it requires. As such, researchers often settle for lesser balance levels within their datasets. However, these balance levels are generally insufficient to guarantee an unbiased estimate of the treatment effect without further assumptions. This article presents several extensions to the strong ignorability assumption that address this issue. Under these additional assumptions, specific levels of covariate balance are both necessary and sufficient for the treatment effect estimate to be unbiased. There is a trade‐off, however: as balance decreases, stronger assumptions are required to guarantee estimator unbiasedness. These results unify parametric and nonparametric adjustment methods for causal inference and are actualized by the Balance Optimization Subset Selection framework, which identifies the best level of balance that can be achieved within a dataset. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 323–344, 2017     

A novel non-separation opening scheme of front cover for rocket launch canister

In view of that existing opening technologies of front cover for rocket launch canister have disadvantages such as causing damage on the ground equipment, not being reused and easily broken. A novel reusable non-separation spring-driven opening scheme is proposed to achieve rapid and reliable opening of the front cover. The mathematical model of the opening process of the front cover is established by the rigid body dynamics theory. To establish a response surface model to optimize the opening scheme, three main influencing factors of the opening process are obtained through the designed experiments, including the pre-compression, the stiffness of the thrust spring, and the thrust spring force arm length. In addition, the prescribed kinematic law was taken as constraint, and the smaller thrust spring preliminary pressure and angular velocity was taken as optimization expectations. The results show that the opening scheme meets the design requirements on opening process well. It also shows that the optimized scheme can reduce the kinetic energy of the front cover, and the impact on the canister effectively, achieving a reliable and rapid opening of the front cover.     

基于层次分析法的占领阵位方案优选评判方法

应用AHP法,分析了水面舰艇反潜作战中占领攻击阵位时影响任务完成的各因素以及各因素之间的关系,建立了各种占领阵位方案对各准则的优劣程度的层次结构模型,并进行了实例计算,给出了各种占领攻击阵位方案对总目标指标优劣决策排序.该评判方法对作战方案优化具有指导意义.     

基于贝叶斯网络的态势估计时间推理方法

基于贝叶斯网络的态势估计方法是目前态势估计领域中的主要方法之一,然而,传统的贝叶斯网络不具备时间语义,因此无法解决态势估计中的时间推理问题.基于此,对贝叶斯网络进行改造,研究了时间贝叶斯网络的构建方法.通过一个战场想定,说明了时间贝叶斯网络构建、推理的过程与方法,证明了提出方法的有效性.     

基于B样条的螺旋桨升力面设计

为了改善螺旋桨的空泡性能,从效率和空泡性能2个方面的权衡来确定环量分布.在升力面理论设计中计及桨毂的影响.桨叶几何用较少的B样条控制角点来表示.将升力面理论计算的控制点处法向速度的平方和作为优化目标函数,并通过最小化目标函数得到桨叶几何.     

欲去明日 问道昨天——走出中国式建筑的困境

中国式建筑的困境在于附加意识形态性的起源和前因后果的关系倒置.近现代建筑进入中国后,曾经保持着与世界的同步发展,直至20世纪50年代初.中国式建筑是伴随着中西古今之争而产生的命题,建筑被赋予了意识形态的内容.在全球化背景下,重新认识中国式建筑产生和发展的局限性,其实质在于混淆了现代化与西方化之区别,将现代化等同于西方化...     

The knapsack problem with a minimum filling constraint

We study a knapsack problem with an additional minimum filling constraint, such that the total weight of selected items cannot be less than a given threshold. The problem has several applications in shipping, e‐commerce, and transportation service procurement. When the threshold equals the knapsack capacity, even finding a feasible solution to the problem is NP‐hard. Therefore, we consider the case when the ratio α of threshold to capacity is less than 1. For this case, we develop an approximation scheme that returns a feasible solution with a total profit not less than (1 ‐ ε) times the total profit of an optimal solution for any ε > 0, and with a running time polynomial in the number of items, 1/ε, and 1/(1‐α). © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Past failures and future problems: the psychology of irregular war

Personal cognitive processes inform how individuals understand their environment. Cultural variation, fundamental attribution error, causal attribution, and durability bias create obstacles to Western understanding of irregular war and have created a significant institutional bias in how the US military perceives its enemies- a perception only somewhat softened after a decade of irregular war. United Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) is in a better position to overcome these problems through persistent engagement. In the event of major conflict, environmentally sensitized military planners will be better able to achieve military and policy objectives.     

基于TVD思想的高阶迎风紧致格式

紧致格式具有模板紧凑、精度高的特点,然而直接应用该格式捕捉激波会产生虚假振荡。解决该问题有多种思路,本文着重研究基于TVD思想的紧致方法。首先推导了两种5阶迎风紧致格式,并采用Fourier分析比较其耗散与色散特性。然后,采用保单调保精度方法和限制器两种不同的TVD方法,进行算例验证。计算结果表明,应用TVD方法后,格式对激波、接触间断分辨率好且鲁棒性增强,但不同的TVD方法仍存在精度降低、耗散不足等问题。     

舰艇作战方案效能的对抗仿真评估指标与方法

阐述了基于对抗仿真的舰艇作战方案评估方法的基本思想,分析了基于作战仿真的舰艇作战方案效能评估的特点,构建了舰艇作战方案效能评估的指标体系,设计出作战仿真过程的总体框架.通过实例分析进一步说明评估作战方案的可行性、实用性,为舰艇作战方案的优化评估提供理论参考.