DESIGNING A VIABLE PREDICTION MARKET TO FORECAST DEFENSE ACQUISITION COST AND SCHEDULE OUTCOMES

This paper is the first to demonstrate a viable prediction market that successfully forecasts defense acquisition cost and schedule outcomes, and to provide insights for defense executive decision‐making. Already used in private industry, prediction markets can also accurately forecast outcomes and their associated risks for government programs. Using virtual money, prediction markets allow traders to ‘bet’ on some future outcome. This market mechanism turns out to be a relatively simple and accurate way to discover, aggregate, and communicate to a defense executive the collective market’s beliefs about the likelihood of an eventual outcome of an acquisition program of interest.     

The British army,information management and the First World War revolution in military affairs

Information Management (IM) – the systematic ordering, processing and channelling of information within organisations – forms a critical component of modern military command and control systems. As a subject of scholarly enquiry, however, the history of military IM has been relatively poorly served. Employing new and under-utilised archival sources, this article takes the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) of the First World War as its case study and assesses the extent to which its IM system contributed to the emergence of the modern battlefield in 1918. It argues that the demands of fighting a modern war resulted in a general, but not universal, improvement in the BEF’s IM techniques, which in turn laid the groundwork, albeit in embryonic form, for the IM systems of modern armies.     

Security sector stabilisation in counterinsurgency operations: the case of Afghanistan

This article argues that the debate on security sector reform (SSR) needs to be taken further by taking into consideration the fact that, even though the SSR concept was not originally developed as an element in stabilising states undergoing an insurgency, it is very much being used for exactly that. When conducting counterinsurgency with a focus on the creation of stability, the baseline will ultimately have to be security sector stabilisation (SSS) as a precondition for complete SSR implementation. However, the two must be connected to avoid them undermining each other. This is important if a comprehensive approach to programme implementation and especially sustainability is to guide the programme, and not just isolated ‘train and equip’ stand-alone projects that do not solve either the initial need for stabilisation or the long-term need for accountable security forces. Currently, in Afghanistan the surge for security by the international military is in danger of overtaking the other elements of the SSR, thereby undermining the primary end state and thus risking laying the wrong foundation for the long-term process of SSR.     

基于Multi-Agent敏捷卫星动态任务规划问题

在分析敏捷卫星的特点和卫星多用户需求的基础上,针对敏捷卫星任务规划问题,基于Multi-Agent理论构建了任务分配模型;针对敏捷卫星任务规划初始方案调度中卫星资源失效的情况给出了敏捷卫星动态任务重调度模型;在此基础上,提出了基于诚信机制的可解约合同网任务分配方法,设计了招投标机制、可解约合同网协议以及招投标、评标策略;以敏捷卫星任务规划调度问题为例通过实验获得了满意的结果,表明了模型的合理性以及算法的有效性。     

黄页服务的合同网在编队武器目标分配中的应用

海上舰艇编队协同作战面临的环境日益复杂,其武器目标分配呈现出了多智能体系统的涌现性、协同性和动态性.将编队武器目标分配问题转化成多智能体系统来研究,根据黄页概念建立了编队武器智能体的黄页服务,运用基于黄页服务的合同网协议实现了编队范围内的武器目标分布式分配.     

文化安全视角下的新疆高校网络舆情管理探究

文化安全的关键在意识形态,意识形态领域中的关键问题是价值观掌控问题。作为文化传播的主要组成部分,网络舆情对文化安全的表层和深层结构都有重要影响。本文从文化安全视角下切入,结合新疆高校网络舆情调研,分析了文化安全面临的冲击与挑战,并提出了基于文化安全保障下的新疆高校网络舆情有效管理方式和路径。     

普通高校网络工程专业实验室的设计与建设刍议

本文主要针对那些定位于培养工程应用型网络专业人才的普通高校,分析了其对于计算机网络、网络工程与网络技术应用方面的专业实验室的建设需求,并基于此提出了此类实验室的一种设计方案,同时进一步探讨了此类实验室在建设后期与管理方面应当把握的主要问题。本文提出的建设方案和思路,具有一次性投入不高、可扩展性强、易于实施、灵活适应性好、可支持远程开放式实验等优点,因此不失为一种可行的选择。     

影响现代大学治理的教育政策环境分析

政策环境是政浆活动的平台,当环境发生变化时,就会对决茕系统产生一定的刺激作用。大学作为社会大系统中的一个子系统,其治理必然会受到政治、经济、文化等相关数育政策环境因素的影响。其中,社会政治民主化、市场经济的开放多元化,大学内部文化力量的渗透以及西方大学治理理念的影响,对我国现代大学治理的调适性转变和发展有着深远的意义。     

文娱领域综合治理语境下高校艺术学科教师评价与考核机制建设的相关问题研究

文娱领域综合治理是当下的文化热点,但与之相关的高校艺术学科教师的评价与考核机制建设却一直是被学术界忽略的问题。该问题不仅关乎高校教师评价与考核工作的整体进程、艺术学科的健康发展,还关乎国家文艺创作队伍的建设、文娱行业的天清气朗。本文认为艺术学科教师评价与考核机制是决定文娱领域艺人违法失德乱象的重要要素之一,科学、系统、规范的评价与考核机制有利于这一问题的解决。     

基于实战化条件下人民防空装备体系管理能力建设

基于实战化条件下人民防空装备体系管理能力建设应着眼国家安全利益拓展,人民防空转型建设需求和完成多样化任务需要,强化顶层设计,搞好储备,坚持信息主导,着眼＂能打仗、打胜仗＂,坚持＂战斗力这个唯一的根本的标准＂,建设与发展相适应的人民防空装备体系管理能力。