基于Multi-Agent的航空集群系统重构机理研究

集群作战是未来空中作战的主要样式,其重构机理的研究对于提升航空集群执行任务的整体性能以及在遭受攻击时的生存能力具有重要作用。从作战任务层面出发,对集群系统重构的定义以及类型、触发机制和基本原则进行了分析阐述;借鉴博弈论理论,将航空集群系统分布式重构问题映射为多Agent之间的合作-竞争问题,建立了基于Multi-Agent的系统重构模型,给出了重构的流程与算法,为航空集群系统自适应重构能力的设计实现提供了理论技术支持。     

舰空导弹超视距协同反导装备体系结构设计方法

以网络化舰空导弹超视距协同反导作战装备发展需求为牵引，基于 DoDAF （ Department of Defense Architecture Framework）1?5体系结构框架，利用体系结构设计软件SA（ System Architect），对协同反导作战装备体系结构进行了初步探索性和概念性设计，提出了体系结构框架裁减、作战视图设计、系统视图设计和体系结构评估等方法，对实现整个装备体系互连、互通、互操作，以及避免重复建设具有重要指导意义。     

基于排队论的空降兵部队安全着陆问题研究

针对空降兵部队安全着陆问题，首先建立空降排队模型，明确空降作战受到火力打击时为混合制排队论问题，对具体空降参数进行了分析与计算，得到了比较科学的结果，与实际基本相符，然后根据结果分析了各种参数对空降作战的影响，提出了空降作战提高安全着陆人数的对策，对空降作战人数的安排及火力的支援提供了较强的参考价值，为开展空降作战相关问题研究提供可借鉴的思路方法。     

The stability of the nuclear nonproliferation norm: a critique of norm-contestation theory

This article argues that the nuclear nonproliferation norm (NNPN) is a social fact with a relatively independent life of its own and that it has a powerful impact on the behavior of both nuclear-weapon states (NWS) and non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS). It challenges the application of critical constructivist research on norms to the NNPN and the idea that its legitimacy and structural power depend on contestation “all the way down.” State and non-state actors play an important role in explaining the dynamics of the NNPN, but agential constructivism runs the danger of “throwing the baby out with the bath water,” neglecting the structural impact of the NNPN on state behavior. The article examines the limitations of norm-contestation theory, arguing that some norms are more resistant to contestation than others. The NNPN is more difficult to contest than new norms (such as the Responsibility to Protect) because it is rooted in fifty years of nonproliferation nuclear diplomacy. The US-India nuclear deal is not a case of “norm change” but a violation of the NNPN. The “core” of the NNPN has not changed since the US-India nuclear deal. The conflict confronting NWS and NNWS is about the implementation of “type 2” norms (organizing principles) and “type 3” norms (standardized procedures), and not about the “hard core” of the NNPN.     

基于博弈论的装备采购定价激励模型

不同的定价方式和定价参数的选择对于承包商会起到不同程度的激励作用。为提高装备采购效益,在承包商追求效用最大化假设的基础上,建立了装备采购完全信息动态博弈模型。对价格、成本、承包商努力程度和承包商效用之间的关系进行了研究,证明了成本分担和固定价格的定价方式能够有效激励承包商提高自身努力水平降低成本,并提出了2种定价方式的参数定量计算方法。     

不完全信息下军事威逼讨价还价博弈分析

在详细分析威慑与威逼区别的基础上,构建了不完全信息下军事威逼讨价还价博弈模型。按照最大期望效用准则,分析了不完全信息下军事威逼走向讨价还价阶段的条件,研究表明:运用鲁宾斯坦经典讨价还价唯一完美均衡解,得出以下结论:争夺目标自身的效用越大,战争带来的声誉得益效用越大,军事威逼走向讨价还价阶段的可能性越大;一旦进入讨价还价阶段,威逼者会接受挑战者提出的方案,冲突将不再发生。     

基于分形理论的目标航路预测

电磁干扰条件下解决断续航路预测问题对防空兵有效抗击空中目标至关重要。针对包络灰预测方法预测精度较低和Verhulst灰色预测模型计算过程复杂的情况,提出了预测航路的分形方法。在分形理论的基础上,研究了其用于目标断续航路预测的基本思路,建立了基于分形的目标航路预测模型,并对模型进行了求解。最后,利用建立的分形模型对雷达丢失目标后的目标航路进行了预测,通过实例体现了分形方法在用于航路预测时的准确性、灵活性和易实现等特点。结果表明,用该法对断续目标航路的预测具有一定的借鉴意义。     

基于分布式网络化指控体系的协同跟踪设计

针对当前干扰防空环境下的作战特点，通过对网络化作战需求的分析，建立了一种分布式的网络化指挥控制体系架构，并结合协同跟踪的具体作战运用，设计了基于此分布式体系的协同跟踪作战流程，并建立了效能验证模型。对比一般的集中式指挥控制体系，基于分布式的体系具有生存性强、作战使用效能高的特点。     

基于案例决策理论的仿真任务共同体服务选择算法

资源分配优化是面向服务（ SOA）的大型多用途仿真系统的关键问题，而含有不确定状态或效果的服务选择是资源分配优化中的一个难点。针对以上问题，提出了构建仿真任务共同体的方法，基于案例的决策理论（ CBDT）的思想，设计了一种不确定型仿真任务共同体服务选择算法（ CBDSSA）。算法通过服务选择案例相似度的层次化运算，生成相似历史案例集，计算得到相似历史案例的方案效用值，最终评估出目标服务选择方案综合效用值并排序备选。算例验证表明，算法约束条件少，层次结构分明，运算结果直观，为仿真任务共同体服务选择问题提供了一种新的思路和实践手段，对大型多用途仿真系统资源分配优化研究具有一定的参考价值。     

Theoretical calculation and experimental study on the interaction mechanism between TKX-50 and AP

The combination of 5,5′-bistetrazole-1,1′-diolate (TKX-50) and ammonium perchlorate (AP) can make greater use of the chemical energy of TKX-50 based energetic materials. The research on the interaction mechanism between TKX-50 and AP is very important for designing TKX-50-AP compounds and judging the formation feasibility of composite particles, which can lay a theoretical foundation for the preparation of TKX-50-AP mixed crystals and the application of TKX-50 in propellant, propellant and explosive. Herein, in order to research the interaction mechanism between TKX-50 and AP, density-functional theory calculation was applied to optimize three configurations of TKX-50-AP compounds. The geometry structure, electrostatic potential and binding energy of the compounds were predicted, and the electronic density topological analysis was also carried out. Then TKX-50-AP mixed crystals structures were constructed, and the radial distribution function of H–O and H–N in mixed crystals was calculated. Finally, solvent/non-solvent method was applied to prepare TKX-50-AP composites, and the infrared spectroscopy and the non-isothermal decomposition performance of the composites were characterized. Results show that the superposition of positive charges in TKX-50 molecule and negative charges in AP makes the electrostatic potential distributions of TKX-50-AP compounds different from that of TKX-50 and AP. The interaction energies of TKX-50-AP 1, TKX-50-AP 2 and TKX-50-AP 3 are 39.743 kJ/mol, 61.206 kJ/mol and 27.702 kJ/mol, respectively. The interaction between TKX-50 molecules and AP molecules in TKX-50-AP mixed crystals both depends on hydrogen bonds and van der Waals force, and the number and strength of hydrogen bonds are significantly greater than that of van der Waals force. The composition of AP and TKX-50 makes the absorption peak of the five-membered rings and NH₃OH⁺ of TKX-50 shift to low wavenumber in the infrared spectroscopy. In general, TKX-50 interacts with AP via hydrogen bonds and van der Waals force, and the calculated results are in good agreement with the experimental results. The composition of TKX-50 and AP can also prolong the decomposition process.