基于群体多属性决策的坦克武器作战能力评估

针对坦克武器系统作战能力评估新趋势,运用不完全信息群体多属性决策方法探索坦克武器系统作战能力评估问题。依据决策群体中每一决策个体的主观偏爱和信息掌握程度,形成对不同坦克武器系统在各属性下效用的不完全信息,决策群体集结各效用不完全信息形成群体偏爱,对武器系统作战能力进行排序或选优。该方法模型简单、利用计算机实现,较好地解决了信息化条件下坦克武器系统作战能力评估问题。     

坦克武器作战能力评估的不完全信息群决策法

针对坦克武器系统作战能力评估新趋势,运用不完全信息群体多数性决策方法探索坦克武器系统作战能力评估问题.依据决策群体中每一决策个体的主观偏爱和信息掌握程度,形成对不同坦克武器系统在各属性下效用的不完全信息,决策群体集结各效用不完全信息形成群体偏爱,对武器系统作战能力进行排序或选优.该方法模型简单、利用计算机实现,较好地解决了信息化条件下坦克武器系统作战能力评估问题.     

军事卫星信息系统对导弹作战的影响分析

文章分析了军事卫星信息系统对导弹攻防作战重要的信息支援效用。建立并阐述了军事卫星信息系统信息支援下导弹攻防作战过程模型和影响图模型，对模型进行了详细的分析讨论。     

竞争性谈判采购方式下武器装备价格形成研究

竞争性谈判采购方式下装备价格形成受制于双方的实力结构、破裂风险和谈判时限的影响。在竞争性谈判过程中,双方的价格区间一般不可能是完全重合的,在具体价格区间谈判确定过程中,不仅要考虑谈判双方的成本、费用、预期效用等价格构成的基本要素,还要考虑谈判双方具体贴现因素和讨价还价中主观因素对装备价格的影响。     

军事技术转民用定价机制分析

为解决军事技术转民用过程中的定价问题,在遵循一般的商业惯例的基础上,采用技术许可的两部定价模型,并根据其特点去掉研发成本、加入技术转移成本,分别研究了完全信息和不完信息条件下的定价机制。研究结果表明:当军方具有完全信息时,收取固定费用是较好的定价机制,可以获得更多的收益;当信息不完全时,则要根据具体情况从固定费用或固定费用加提成费用两种定价机制中进行选择;技术转移成本只对固定费用和军方的利润产生影响,对提成费用没有影响。因此,在军事技术转移定价时可以参照民用领域同行业标准收取提成费用。     

军队成品油市场多阶段重复博弈分析

讨论了军队成品油市场面临的竞争环境,分析了市场主体的行为特点,构建了军队成品油市场的完全信息单阶段博弈寻租模型和不完全信息下多阶段重复博弈模型,提出了减少企业寻租行为的政策建议。     

军事财力资源配置决策主体博弈分析

军事财力资源配置决策的本质是各决策主体博弈后达到一种均衡状态。利用不完全信息动态博弈、不完全信息静态博弈和完全信息静态博弈三种模型,对军事财力资源初次配置、再配置以及使用过程中各决策主体的行为进行分析,可以得出,优化军事财力资源配置决策机制,应设计科学合理的决策规则,不断完善决策信息机制,建立有效的激励约束机制,拓宽民主参与决策的范围,调整决策机构和决策权限。     

军事人力劳动供给不完全成因及对策

军事人力劳动供给不完全，降低了部队人力资源的利用率，进而影响到部队的工作效率。经分析，造成军事人力劳动供给不完全的原因是多方面的，其中军事人力劳动供给程度的不完全信息是形成基础，工资激励的不足是直接动因，监督的低效率是外部环境。在分析原因基础之上对应对措施进行了探讨。     

平行军事体系:发轫与嬗变

平行军事体系的演变经历了四个阶段,这就是冷兵器时代的肢体平行军事体系,热兵器时代的体能平行军事体系,机械化时代的技能平行军事体系和信息化时代的智能平行军事体系.它们的有机叠加,即构成我们今天所面对的平行军事体系.这一体系将武器装备的打击力、防护力、机动力、信息力集于一体,从实现人的功能延伸,乃至替代,最后必然走向无人作战.     

产品供应商与产品分销商的非完全信息博弈

博弈论是研究多人决策问题的理论,这类问题在经济学研究中经常会遇到,如在微观领域,交易机制的模型(讨价还价模型等);在中观经济研究中,劳动力经济学和金融理论有关企业要素的投入模型;在宏观经济中,国家间相互竞争,选择关税和其他贸易政策的模型等。就信息的完备程度主要分为四种类型的博弈:完全信息静态博弈、完全信息动态博弈、非完全信息静态博弈、非完全信息动态博弈。     

单一来源同类装备价格形成机制存在的问题及对策

近年来,随着国防和军队全面深化改革的深入推进和装备建设的快速发展,装备价格管理工作的重要性不断提升,但军队目前承担的装备审价任务日趋繁重,存量不减、增量日增等新情况和新问题给装备价格管理工作带来了新挑战。本文以单一来源同类装备为研究对象,借鉴《军品定价议价规则(试行)》中竞争议价和征询议价不审价的原理,从单一来源同类装备价格的形成主体、装备审价任务量、装备价格的测算方法、装备价格的形成过程以及装备价格的影响因素等五个方面分析了价格形成机制存在的问题,并从主观因素和客观因素两方面探讨了存在问题的原因,提出应在明确价格形成主体的职能权限、科学确定价格的测算方法、完善价格法律法规、建设价格数据平台、加强价格人才队伍建设等方向优化单一来源同类装备价格形成机制的对策建议。     

军民融合背景下军工企业多元化发展战略研究

冷战结束后,欧美多数军工企业在军转民的过程中采取多元化的经营战略,壮大企业规模并寻求进一步的发展。随着我国军民融合战略的深入实施,军工企业不再是封闭独立的单一军品生产基地,而是顺时应势逐步实现军品和民品同步多元化发展的战略转型。通过分析我国军工企业军转民的历史进程与国际经验,结合多元化战略的特点,考察军工企业在军转民过程中实施多元化战略的动因,构建军工企业多元化战略的选择函数。本文认为,军工企业选择多元化战略应考虑企业自身实际情况,积极响应国家政策,培育核心竞争力;同时,军转民过程作为军民融合深度发展的重要一环,会促使军工企业往多元化的方向发展,而多元化战略的实施也会加快军民融合深度发展的进程。     

Conditional commitments: Why states use caveats to reserve their efforts in military coalition operations

Why do states make substantial military contributions to coalition operations, while at the same time apply reservations, or caveats, to how the coalition can use the military contributions? Caveats rose to prominence in defense and policy circles with NATO’s campaign in Afghanistan. In the scholarly security literature, the term remains a buzzword for all types of reserved efforts by states in coalition warfare, but there are few theoretical accounts addressing caveats. This article contributes to the knowledge gap on caveats through a comparative case study of Denmark’s, the Netherlands’, and Norway’s contributions to NATO’s intervention in Libya in 2011. It demonstrates that caveats can occur through three different causal pathways: compromises from domestic bargaining, handling of alliance commitments, and implementation and civil–military relations. Insights into the complexity that causes caveats are highly relevant for both political and military decision-makers that are trying to coordinate states’ effort in coalition operations.     

Parliamentary involvement,party ideology and majority-opposition bargaining: Belgian participation in multinational military operations

This article examines the impact of parliamentary involvement in troop deployment decisions on restrictions on military mandates by examining the Belgian contribution to the 2011 Libya intervention and the coalition against the self-proclaimed Islamic State. More specifically, we analyse (1) the effect of party ideology on mandate preferences, and (2) the impact of bargaining between majority and opposition parties on the outcome of mandate negotiations. Our case study demonstrates that left-wing parties show a strong inclination toward imposing restrictions on the use of military force beyond humanitarian goals, while right-wing preferences tend to depend on the national interests at stake in the operation. With regard to majority-opposition bargaining, our study shows that the impact of opposition parties is dependent on the degree of contention between government and opposition parties, as well as on the extent to which the executive needs to seek support across its own majority.     

“5G+区块链”军事应用探索与分析

区块链技术来源于数字货币,是一种具有去中心化、自信任、公开透明、数据不可篡改、隐私保护等特点的分布式数据账本。在国防与军队建设领域,区块链技术由于其技术理念的先进性而具有相当广阔的应用前景,它将导致思维理念、作战方式与管理方式的全方位创新,但是区块链技术在应用过程中,也存在一定缺陷。由于具备高传输速率、低网络时延、超强连接能力以及更灵活的业务部署能力,5G技术成为弥补区块链技术不足的首选。本文首先分别介绍了5G技术和区块链技术的主要军事应用前景和存在的困难;其次,分析了5G与区块链之间的互补影响及两种技术融合发展的可能性;最后,从军事供应链、智慧军营和无人作战平台等方面深入探讨了5G与区块链典型军事应用中可能面临的挑战。     

China's Nuclear Forces and Their Significance to India

The Indian nuclear program is a response to a perceived politico-strategic threat from China as opposed to a military-operational one that New Delhi began after perceiving an “ultimatum” from China in 1965. Consequently, India is in the process of acquiring an assured second-strike capability vis-à-vis China to meet the requirements of general deterrence. While India has always been concerned about the Sino-Pakistani nuclear/missile nexus, China has become wary of the growing military ties between the United States and India in recent years, especially because of the military implications of the US-India civil nuclear deal. Given the growing conventional military gap between the two states, India is not lowering its nuclear threshold to meet the Chinese conventional challenge. Instead, India is upgrading its conventional military strategy from dissuasion to deterrence against China. While the overall Sino-Indian nuclear relationship is stable, it will be challenged as China acquires advanced conventional weapons that blur the distinction between conventional and nuclear conflict.     

Assessing the value of demand sharing in supply chains

We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014     

SHOULD MILITARY UNIFORMS CARRY THE UNION LABEL?

It is widely believed that the unionization of military labor leads to reduced discipline and lower combat capability. Case studies of the performance of existing military unions, however, generally suggest that unionization has a benign impact on the performance of the armed forces. In this paper, we offer a theoretical economic analysis of the likely impact of military unionization on volunteer militaries. Our analysis suggests that military unionization will unambiguously lead to larger, but less disciplined, armed forces, leaving the overall impact of unionization on defense capability ambiguous. Military unionization, however, will clearly enhance social welfare.     

具有策略偏好的模糊双矩阵对策模型及其应用

针对局中人对策略有偏好、支付值模糊的双矩阵对策给出了一种具体的求解方法,首先根据加权算子集结得到局中人的策略偏好向量、利用模糊数排序方式将模型转化为清晰的双矩阵对策,再利用粒子群优化算法求解.最后以雷达电子对抗为例,建立了具有策略偏好的模糊双矩阵对策的作战效能评估模型,研究结果对于双方资源分配,提高作战效能具有一定的军...     

军队会计流程存在的问题及优化策略

在新军事变革的背景下,军队会计流程存在不适应新管理体制需要、信息技术应用对会计流程再造力度不够、军队会计科目设置影响流程等问题。本文从界定军队会计流程的含义入手,提出了优化军队会计流程、建立智能化军队会计信息系统的四项策略,即重塑军队会计流程体系、重构军队会计信息系统、调整军队会计科目体系以及完善各流程会计处理方法。优化军队会计流程、建设智能化军队会计信息系统,不仅能够反映军事经济活动的历史信息,还能为不同类型的信息使用者提供预测、决策等支持,并有利于改善军队会计核算质量,准确反映各类资产负债的价值信息和单位的真实财务状况,对于提高军队会计信息质量具有一定的借鉴意义。