基于博弈论的装备采办成本控制问题研究

从武器装备采办的理论需求出发,以博弈论为理论工具,对武器装备采办过程中的生产成本控制问题进行了分析;建立了基于激励的生产成本控制模型,并对成本控制模型的特点进行了分析和解释;针对军方在激励合同执行过程中有可能出现的2类错误,对成本控制模型进行了优化。在非对称信息条件下,优化后的成本控制模型不但能有效减少2类错误的发生,而且可提高军方装备采办效用,减少代理方合同风险。     

反直升机智能雷战斗部研制费用/效能分析

给出了反直升机智能雷战斗部总体效能的评价体系。对各种评价方法进行了分析 ,提出了适用于智能雷战斗部总体效能评价的层次 TOPSIS法。应用灰色系统预测理论解决智能雷战斗部研制费用估计问题 ,建立了灰色系统 GM模型。采用费效比值准则能较好地反映智能雷战斗部综合能力。通过实例计算可以看出 ,该方法能广泛地应用于弹箭系统     

The Organization of the Defense Support System: An Economic Geography Perspective

In the context of restricted budgetary resources and the growing cost of maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) activities, a major issue for modern armed forces is to sustain defense platforms. A possible method consists of realizing economies of scale through the concentration of maintenance activities, which involves the spatial reorganization of existing industrial sites dedicated to MRO. This article provides a formalized framework to discuss the optimal organization for the MRO of defense platforms in space. The public planner organizes the maintenance of defense platforms with only two possible spatial configurations. In the dispersed configuration, two industrial production units in charge of the maintenance optimally cover space, whereas in the concentrated configuration, a unique industrial unit covers space. Focusing on the tipping point between the two configurations, the balance of forces between agglomeration and dispersion in defense support activities is described and discussed. On the one hand, economies of scale provide an opportunity to optimize defense support costs, favoring concentration in a unique industrial unit. On the other hand, space causes dispersion to reduce both transport costs and operational social costs. This trade-off illustrates a general principle in spatial economics with an application to MRO production in the French case.     

自行火炮武器系统的寿命周期费用分析

随着技术的发展,寿命周期的研究正日益受到关注.评述了国内外寿命周期费用方面的研究现状,介绍了火炮寿命周期费用研究方法的内容及用途,探讨了费用估算的一般方法,在火炮寿命周期费用分解原则的基础上给出了火炮寿命周期费用分解结构,讨论了寿命周期费用研究方法急需解决的主要问题.     

维修费用合理值计算的基本方法

阐述了武器装备维修费用合理值的计算与评估方法 ,包括平均维修费用、一次性维修费用、实际维修费用等方面     

相似分布特性准则下的高斯混合项聚类-合并算法

针对高斯混合模型估计非高斯系统时高斯混合项呈指数级增长问题，提出一种基于相似分布特性准则的聚类-合并方法。通过分析高斯混合项的分布特性，基于扩展积分均方误差代价函数搜索最优置信范围，并对混合项进行高斯聚类，进而获得具有不同分布特性的高斯簇。为防止高斯簇间对高斯子项的重复利用，引入局部最近邻思想对交叉高斯项进行重新分配。采用并行多元素合并方法对高斯簇中的混合项进行合并，在保证无偏性基础上减少下一时刻混合项数量。仿真结果表明，改进算法在保证跟踪精度的同时还可有效提高算法效率。     

成本分担定价方式的装备采购博弈研究

承包商的努力程度直接决定了装备的制造成本。为有效激励承包商降低装备制造成本，提高装备采购效益，基于里昂惕夫劳资博弈模型建立了成本分担定价方式的装备采购博弈模型。并在承包商边际效用非线性和定价方式多变量的假设基础上，分别对价格、成本、承包商努力程度和承包商效用之间的关系进行了研究，对原模型进行了拓展，为定价方式中参数的确定提供了量化方法。     

论社会主义核心价值体系引领社会思潮的有效途径

社会主义核心价值体系引领社会思潮的有效途径包括：1．注意选准社会主义核心价值体系引领社会思潮的切入点：要加强对大众文化的引领工作，要优化社会心理环境，创新社会主义核心价值体系的表达方式。2．更加注重社会主义核心价值体系的优化与创新：要注重增强社会主义核心价值体系的吸引力和影响力。要拓展社会主义核心价值体系引领社会思潮的领域。3．要加强社会主义核心价值体系引领社会思潮的机制建设。     

The Persistent Deficit of Militia Officers in the Swiss Armed Forces: An Opportunity Cost Explanation

The Swiss Armed Forces are suffering from a structural deficit of militia officers despite good pay and a general supportive attitude in the population. Whereas, prior studies have focused on motivation to explain understaffing in armed forces, we offer an alternative approach based on opportunity cost. We model decision alternatives both within and outside a military organization, taking private sector employment as the reference point. We then monetize opportunity costs of leisure, fringe benefits, and private sector income not compensated. Our results suggest that in terms of opportunity cost, service as a militia officer is the least attractive option, an effect that we believe explains the persistent staff deficit. Implications of these findings for the literature and recruitment policy are discussed.     

不完全维修策略的产品保修期研究

以保修期内的保修费用和可用度2个目标作为优化决策依据,权衡厂家和顾客的利益及需求,建立基于改善因子的不完全预防性维修模型,并通过实例确定厂家和顾客共同达到最大满意度的最佳维修间隔期及保修期,验证了模型的实用性。