武器系统研制费用-效能分析的应用

费用-效能研究在国内方兴未艾,其理论日臻成熟,把其应用于具体武器系统,亦取得了明显效果.本文浅析了在研究及学习中关于费用-效能应用的几点体会.     

目标角速度测量误差分析

对现有坦克火控系统中目标角速度测量误差进行了分析,提出了几种提高测量精度和射弹命中率的方法.     

逆重复 m 序列输入下 FIR 模型辨识及精度分析

针对离散控制系统的有限脉冲响应 (FIR)函数模型 ,研究了在伪随机逆重复m序列输入激励下的相关辨识及其精度问题 ,得到了有色噪声干扰下FIR参数估计精度的显式表达式。文中有仿真实例。     

基于SRUKF仅测角导航的空间交会闭环控制协方差分析

针对基于仅测角导航的空间交会问题,开展了采用线性协方差进行闭环控制误差快速分析方法的研究。建立了基于SRUKF (Square Root Unscented Kalman Filter) 的仅测角导航算法并推导了观测敏感矩阵,构建了基于多脉冲Hill制导的闭环控制线性协方差分析模型。经算例验证,本文提出的闭环控制协方差分析结果与Monte Carlo打靶结果能够很好吻合;该方法适用于采用传统Extended Kalman Filter (EKF)的仅测角导航问题,但其迹向位置的估计存一个与该方向控制误差方差相当的偏心,其误差椭圆的长轴和短轴分别比基于SRUKF的估计结果大了24.68%和20.56%。此外,由于采用了QR分解和Cholesky 因子更新两种高效的代数运算,基于SRUKF的协方差分析模型要比基于EKF的协方差分析模型在计算速度上快了10%。     

有限水深Kelvin源格林函数的传播特性及其应用

为探究有限水深环境下自由面兴波在远场的传播特性,应用线性水动力学的基本理论,从有限水深Kelvin源格林函数的积分表达式中提取相函数,采用同相分析法求得亚临界和超临界速度区下远场传播波系的等相线。结果表明,水深傅汝德数Fh1时远场传播波包括横波和散波两个波系,F_h1时远场波系仅由散波构成,点源兴波的影响范围可由Kelvin角的大小确定,当F_h趋近于1时Kelvin角迅速增大至90°。依据船型要素、两船相对位置和池壁几何参数,并计及船模的定常兴波经池壁反射作用后对自身和另一船模的干扰,提出了有限水深条件下并行航行两船模池壁效应的判别方法,并结合实例检查分析了某试验工况下的池壁效应。     

Comparison of rank aggregation methods based on inherent ability

Ranking is a common task for selecting and evaluating alternatives. In the past few decades, combining rankings results from various sources into a consensus ranking has become an increasingly active research topic. In this study, we focus on the evaluation of rank aggregation methods. We first develop an experimental data generation method, which can provide ground truth ranking for alternatives based on their “inherent ability.” This experimental data generation method can generate the required individual synthetic rankings with adjustable accuracy and length. We propose characterizing the effectiveness of rank aggregation methods by calculating the Kendall tau distance between the aggregated ranking and the ground truth ranking. We then compare four classical rank aggregation methods and present some useful findings on the relative performances of the four methods. The results reveal that both the accuracy and length of individual rankings have a remarkable effect on the comparison results between rank aggregation methods. Our methods and results may be helpful to both researchers and decision‐makers.     

Augmented nested sampling for stochastic programs with recourse and endogenous uncertainty

We propose a novel simulation‐based approach for solving two‐stage stochastic programs with recourse and endogenous (decision dependent) uncertainty. The proposed augmented nested sampling approach recasts the stochastic optimization problem as a simulation problem by treating the decision variables as random. The optimal decision is obtained via the mode of the augmented probability model. We illustrate our methodology on a newsvendor problem with stock‐dependent uncertain demand both in single and multi‐item (news‐stand) cases. We provide performance comparisons with Markov chain Monte Carlo and traditional Monte Carlo simulation‐based optimization schemes. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.     

Terrorism,Radicalisation and Moral Panics: Media and Academic Analysis and Reporting of 2016 and 2017 ‘Terrorism’

Radicalism or radicalisation has become a serious political and academic theme in recent years and any incident involving Muslims now almost automatically acquires the cachet, as events in 2016 and 2017 have shown. However, despite vast sums and resources expended on the subject no one can define what they mean by ‘it’. This should make us pause and question what precisely it is that causes so much alarm and is it worth the resources, time and effort employed to respond to it?     

基于多尺度稀疏字典的SAR图像目标识别方法

针对合成孔径雷达目标识别问题,提出一种基于多尺度稀疏字典的SAR图像目标识别方法。稀疏字典选择是稀疏表示中的关键问题之一,该方法利用小波多尺度分析构造过完备稀疏字典,将训练样本图像在小波解析域中进行小波多层分解,充分利用小波多尺度分析突出图像局部特征的特点,并和过完备稀疏表示有效结合组成级联字典。通过求解测试样本相应的稀疏系数矢量并根据系数矢量中对应训练样本类别的重构误差判定目标类型。实验结果表明,该方法在识别前无需对SAR图像进行预处理,具有良好的识别效果。     

基于聚类主成分分析法的变压器参数关联度评估

为了有效管理和监测电力变压器的健康状态,在对变压器正常运行的海量数据进行分析的基础上,构建变压器参数关联度评估方法。首先,为了对变压器运行参数进行参数分类定性,基于系统聚类的方法构建变压器参数样本分类流程算法,并设计了相应的流程图;然后,通过引入聚类以及主成分分析方法,建立基于聚类的主成分分析的变压器主要影响参数关联度评估模型;最后通过潼南电力局实际运行数据验证模型的可靠性和有效性,准确分析了变压器运行参数之间的定量关系,可以为变压器故障预测研究提供重要依据。