基于核主成分分析方法的水面舰艇空中目标威胁评估?

对来袭空中目标的威胁进行评估与排序是舰艇对空火力分配的重要一环。根据来袭空中目标的特点，在确定目标指标后进行相应量化，针对来袭目标各指标间非线性的特点，提出使用核主成分分析法对目标信息进行特征提取，随后依据核主成分方差贡献率对威胁目标进行评估与排序。通过仿真算例验证，所得结果较为准确、客观，有效地克服传统方法中主观性较强的问题，并且在对指标数据提取的过程中降低了相关信息维数，降低了计算复杂度，为舰艇防空作战威胁评估提供了新途径。     

装备战损率与损坏率关系研究

装备的损坏率是决定装备维修保障的重要依据,通过对装备战损率及其分布的分析,给出了在维修机构修复能力一定的条件下相应的损坏率及其分布的模型,可为装备维修保障提供决策。     

新冠肺炎动态病死率分析与疫情预测方法研究【专题】

新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎防控是国家安全体系的重要“战场”，疫情趋势预测是开展疫情科学防控和精准防控的重要基础。本文阐述了疫情动态病死率概念，分析了疫情动态病死率函数和时间曲线，提出了动态病死率发展的3个重要拐点，从动态病死率和新增确诊病人数两个维度，构建了拟合曲线函数，并对疫情发展趋势进行了预测。研究发现，截至2月10日，本次疫情动态病死率已经经过了第3个拐点，趋于稳定；预计到2月16日左右，新增确诊人数达到第3个拐点，进入缓慢下降期；预计2月底底至3月初，每日新增确诊人数将在1000人以内，全国最终的“病死率”将在2%～4%左右。该预测方法是一种运用系统外部特征信息来研判疫情发展规律的较为简便快捷的方法，对于科学预测疫情发展趋势具有一定的参考借鉴价值。     

基于改进Markov模型软件测试策略

针对已有软件测试Markov模型与工程实践不符的情况，通过引入软件需求覆盖率改进Markov模型。在改进的Markov模型基础上，本文以软件测试过程中测试总代价最小为控制目标，采用交叉熵方法修正测试剖面，由优化测试剖面生成测试用例序列。仿真结果表明这种方法能够有效地降低软件测试总代价，是一种有效的软件测试方法。     

应急净水系统作业性能试验研究

用应急净水系统净化不同水质的原水，以考察其作业性能。结果表明，出水浊度不受原水浊度的影响，且低于1NTU；在试验原水浊度、温度范围内，出水流量较稳定，产水量符合设计要求；出水水质符合生活饮用水卫生标准的要求。     

Studies on the flame propagation characteristic and thermal hazard of the premixed N2O/fuel mixtures

An experimental study was carried out to investigate the flame propagation and thermal hazard of the premixed N₂O/fuel mixtures, including NH₃, C₃H₈ and C₂H₄. The study provided the high speed video images and data about the flame locations, propagation patterns, overpressures and the quenching diameters during the course of combustion in different channels to elucidate the dynamics of various combustion processes. The onset decomposition temperature was determined using high-performance adiabatic calorimetry. It was shown that the order of the flame acceleration rate and thermal hazard was N₂O/C₂H₄>N₂O/C₃H₈>N₂O/NH₃.     

Effects of material of metallic frame on the penetration resistances of ceramic-metal hybrid structures

The effects of metallic material on the penetration resistances of ceramic-metal hybrid structures against vertical long-rod tungsten projectiles were studied by artillery-launched experiments and numerical simulation. Hybrid structures with rectangular cores in transverse orthogonal arrangement and slide-fitting ceramic inserts of zirconia toughened alumina prisms were fabricated with titanium alloy TC4 (Ti6Al4V), AISI 4340 steel and 7075 aluminum alloy panels, respectively. The results showed that the hybrid structure of Ti6Al4V exhibited the highest penetration resistance, followed by that of 7075 aluminum alloy with the same area density. The penetration resistance of the hybrid structure of AISI 4340 steel was the lowest. The underlying mechanisms showed that the metallic material of a ceramic-metal hybrid structure can directly affect its energy absorption from the impact projectile, which further affects its penetration resistance. Different metallic frames exhibited different failure characteristics, resulting in different constraint conditions or support conditions for ceramic prisms. The high penetration resistance of the Ti6Al4V hybrid structure was due to its stronger back support to ceramic prisms as compared with that of AISI 4340 steel hybrid structure, and better constraint condition for ceramic prisms by metallic webs as compared with that of 7075 aluminum alloy hybrid structure. The results of mass efficiency and thickness efficiency showed that the Ti6Al4V hybrid structure has advantages in reducing both the thickness and the mass of protective structure. In addition, because the ceramic-metal hybrid structures in the present work were heterogeneous, impact position has slight influence on their penetration resistances.     

Traffic channeling under uncertain conversion rates on e-commerce platforms

Traffic is the lifeblood of every e-commerce platform. The question of how to channel traffic to merchants operating on a platform lies at the heart of platform management. We consider a platform on which two independent merchants sell their products. Merchants compete on inventory in the sense that some of the unmet demand at one merchant will spill over to the other. The platform channels traffic based on products' conversion rates to maximize the total sale on the platform. We show that traffic channeling plays three roles. First, it allows more efficient allocation of traffic; that is, the merchant with a high conversion rate is given a higher priority in receiving traffic. Second, it allows the platform to control demand spillover between the merchants to maximize total sales. The platform either facilitates or prevents demand spillover, depending on product substitutability. Third, traffic channeling intensifies competition between the merchants and hence increases the total inventory. More efficient allocation of traffic and the increase in inventory increase sales inequality between the merchants. In contrast, demand spillover decreases sales inequality. While the platform always benefits from traffic channeling, the merchants do not benefit when their products are moderately substitutable. Interestingly, when the two products are owned and sold by the same merchant, the opposite happens–traffic channeling always benefits the merchant but may hurt the platform. Our study provides a basis for informed discussions on how platforms should channel traffic in response to conversion rates, and how traffic channeling affects the welfare of merchants and platforms.     

基于多单片机系统的小口径火炮激光光幕靶设计

针对高射速、高射频火炮射速和密集度检测的难题,应用光电检测和单片机技术,研究设计了一种以多单片机系统为核心,适用于高射速、高射频小口径火炮射速和密集度检测的激光光幕靶系统。提出了一种新的激光光幕设计方案,推导了弹着点计算公式,阐述了系统中的关键技术。在实验室条件下进行了弹射枪模拟实验,结果表明:激光光幕靶操作简便,工作稳定可靠,能够有效克服自然光干扰,检测速度快,精度高。     

J-M模型改进与可靠性预测研究

软件可靠性J-M预计模型对可靠性测试数据的假设要求比较严格,与实际情况不太符合。针对可靠性测试中各种因素的影响,适当修改了排除错误的条件假设,使得模型的适用性更强。对J-M模型用迭代法确定了参数的估计值,结合1组可靠性测试数据,得到可靠性预测结果。