基于退化速率跟踪粒子滤波的剩余使用寿命预测框架

毋庸置疑,剩余使用寿命预测对于设备的健康管理越来越重要。近年来粒子滤波方法被越来越多地应用到设备寿命预测技术当中,这是因为粒子滤波方法能更好的解决非线性非高斯系统滤波问题,而且能够获得不确定度信息。但该方法的预测性能却过度依赖于预测模型,并且对于模型参数的初始分布也比较敏感,这在一定程度上限制了粒子滤波预测方法的进一步发展。本文针对基本粒子滤波预测方法的不足,提出了一种基于退化速率跟踪粒子滤波的通用预测框架,以历史观测数据的退化速率统计规律作为指导来跟踪目标数据的退化速率,实现对粒子滤波预测方法的简化。并将该方法用于轴承和锂离子电池的剩余使用寿命预测,验证了方法的有效性。     

基于自适应阈值的FAST特征点提取算法

FAST特征提取算法阈值选取固定,因此不能满足不同图像的特征点抽取要求,并且提取的结果存在着多个特征点块的现象。针对这些缺陷,首先采用动态全局阈值对原始灰度图像进行初步提取得到候选特征点,然后采取动态局部阈值和非极大值抑制法进一步对候选特征点进行筛选,从而达到自适应选取阈值和抑制多个特征点块的目的。实验表明,改进后的算法稳定性高,对不同光照和对比度情况下有一定的适应能力,并且运算量相对比于其他一些特征提取算法要小得多,满足实时应用的要求。     

Thermal hazard assessment of TKX-50-based melt-cast explosive

In the present study, thermal hazards of TNT and DNAN used as the molten binder in TKX-50-based melt-cast explosives were comparatively studied through accelerating rate calorimeter (ARC) and Cook-off experiments. Two kinds of ARC operation modes were performed to investigate the thermal safety performance under adiabatic conditions (HWS mode) and constant heating (CHR mode). The obtained results demonstrated that at both heating modes, DNAN/TKX-50 outperformed TNT/TKX-50 from the thermal safety point of view. However, the sensitivity to heat of the samples was reverse because of the different heating modes. In addition, the results of thermal hazard assessment obtained from the cook-off experiment complied with ARC analysis which indicated the molten binder TNT replaced by DNAN would reduce the hazard of the TKX-50 melt cast explosive. Furthermore, the results of cook-off experiments also showed that DNAN/TKX-50 outperformed TNT/TKX-50 from the aspect of thermal stability, which was consistent with the result of CHR mode because of the similar heating process.     

Formation of adiabatic shearing band for high-strength Ti-5553 alloy: A dramatic thermoplastic microstructural evolution

By using split Hopkinson pressure bar, optical microscopy and electronic microscopy, we investigate the influence of initial microstructures on the adiabatic shear behavior of high-strength Ti–5Al–5V–5Mo–3Cr (Ti-5553) alloy with lamellar microstructure and bimodal microstructure. Lamellar alloy tends to form adiabatic shearing band (ASB) at low compression strain, while bimodal alloy is considerably ASB-resistant. Comparing with the initial microstructure of Ti-5553 alloy, we find that the microstructure of the ASB changes dramatically. Adiabatic shear of lamellar Ti-5553 alloy not only results in the formation of recrystallized β nano-grains within the ASB, but also leads to the chemical redistribution of the alloying elements such as Al, V, Cr and Mo. As a result, the alloying elements distribute evenly in the ASB. In contrast, the dramatic adiabatic shear of bimodal alloy might give rise to the complete lamination of the globular primary α grain and the equiaxial prior β grain, which is accompanied by the dynamic recrystallization of α lamellae and β lamellae. As a result, ASB of bimodal alloy is composed of α/β nano-multilayers. Chemical redistribution does not occur in ASB of bimodal alloy. Bimodal Ti-5553 alloy should be a promising candidate for high performance armors with high mass efficiency due to the processes high dynamic flow stress and excellent ASB-resistance.     

节点非独立失效下的局域网可靠性建模与分析

以具有层次结构的局域网作为拓扑模型,考虑共因失效和关联失效这2类节点非独立失效事件发生的情况,建立了交换机节点失效模型来模拟交换机失效,利用Monte-Carlo仿真算法近似计算出网络的两端可靠性,研究2种共因失效事件和3种关联失效事件对网络端端可靠性的影响。结果表明:因资源节点出现故障和协议层出现错误而导致交换机失效的共因失效事件均会降低网络可靠性,且资源节点失效概率或协议层失效概率越大,网络可靠性越低;而由于使用了热备份技术、堆叠技术以及发生广播风暴导致的关联失效事件,即使节点独立失效概率很小,只要相关因数足够大,故障都会快速传播,导致网络可靠性迅速下降。     

雷达智能BIT故障预测方法研究

在总结了几种比较常见的故障预测方法的基础上，介绍了基于统计学习理论的支持向量回归算法。提出将智能遗传算法用来对支持向量回归模型的参数进行优化选取，并详细介绍了模型参数的选取过程，避免了参数的盲目设置。将建立起来的模型应用于雷达智能BIT故障预测领域，并以一组智能BIT状态监测的数据对预测模型进行训练和验证，实验结果表明支持向量回归模型能有效地对雷达故障进行预测。     

Phenomenological modelling of flow behaviour of 20MnMoNi55 reactor pressure vessel steel at cryogenic temperature with different strain rates

In the present study a phenomenological constitutive model is developed to describe the flow behaviour of 20MnMoNi55 low carbon reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steel at sub-zero temperature under different strain rates. A set of uniaxial tensile tests is done with the variation of strain rates and temperature ranging from 10⁻⁴ s⁻¹ to 10⁻¹ s⁻¹ and -80 °C to −140 °C respectively. From the experimental data, family of flow curves at different temperatures and strain rates are generated and fitted exponentially. The strain rate and temperature dependence of the coefficients of the exponential flow curves are extracted from these curves and characterised through a general phenomenological constitutive coupled equation. The coefficients of this coupled equation are optimised using genetic algorithm. Finite element simulation of tensile tests at different strain rates and temperatures are done using this coupled equation in material model of Abaqus FEA software and validated with experimental results. The novelties of proposed model are: (a) it can predict precisely the flow behaviour of tensile tests (b) it is a simple form of equation where fitting parameters are both function of strain rate ratio and temperature ratio, (c) it has ability to characterize flow behaviour with decreasing subzero temperatures and increasing strain rates.     

装备维修中备件需求率的预计方法

通过研究装备维修过程中器件的固有可靠性和维修性,着重分析了影响维修器件需求率的主要因素.利用系统建模和仿真的方法,分别针对耗损类型器件和可修复类型器件建立了相应的需求数学模型,最后给出了维修备件需求率的预计方法.     

速率陀螺解相遇与敌我态势的关系

根据敌我相对运动的原理,导出速率陀螺测量出的目标俯仰角速度Ω_s、测向角速度Ω_L 和探测器测出的距变率与敌我姿势要素间的关系,提出了距变率在极短时间内保持不变的条件;并利用Ω_s、Ω_L 和有关数据(qw,ε、D、■、V_w、K_w)推导出在不满足“快解”条件时计算目标运动要素和弹丸发射诸元的计算公式。     

59-03指挥仪动态调整专家系统

本文介绍了59-03指挥仪动态调整专家系统的设计过程,重点讨论了应用故障诊断的测前模拟理论建立指挥仪动态调整专家系统的方法。