基于单元故障模式的水下恒流远供系统可靠性分析方法

以水下单元的短路/开路故障模式为基础,提出了一种分析缆系海底观测网络恒流远供系统可靠性的方法。根据系统供电和结构特性,将系统分成不同的供电链路和链路段。详细研究了处于不同位置的各种水下单元发生故障时,对链路和观测设备的供电状态的影响。归纳了导致系统和各链路无法正常导通、观测设备无法得到供电的状态情况,分析了不同故障状态发生的概率,进而得出了求解系统、供电链路与供电设备的供电可靠度的方法。通过算例分析,进一步梳理了3种供电可靠性的共性规律,说明在设计和建设恒流远供系统时,应综合须考量这3种供电可靠性。     

某装备系统机电产品贮存可靠性评估方法

针对某装备系统机电产品长期自然贮存环境下可靠性无法准确评估的难题,提出了一种基于极小χ2估计和拟合优度检验的贮存可靠性评估方法,并对试验数据进行了分析、计算和处理。该方法通过拟合产品的失效分布来确定其分布函数参数,并根据确定的分布函数来预测产品的贮存可靠寿命。与现有的评估方法相比,采用该方法确定的分布函数更能反映产品的可靠性变化规律,对机电产品的贮存寿命预测结果更加合理,在工程研究领域具有很好的实用价值。     

基于随机冲击的相关竞争失效可靠性评估

针对电子产品在工程实践中受随机冲击应力的影响及多失效模式的问题,以累积冲击和极限冲击来描述产品的冲击过程,考虑失效模式相关性并建立了随机冲击下产品竞争失效模型。以具有自然耗损和突发耗损特点金属化膜脉冲电容器为对象,进行了可靠性对比分析,验证了模型的合理性和有效性,为遭受复合应力影响的电子产品的可靠性评估提供了一种新方法。     

Some aging properties of parallel and series systems with a random number of components

In this article, we study aging properties of parallel and series systems with a random number of components. We show that the decreasing likelihood ratio property is closed under the formation of random minima. We also show, by counterexamples, that other aging properties are not closed under the formation of random minima or maxima. Some mistakes in the literature are corrected. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 238–243, 2014     

基于压力间断解析解对AUSM -up格式的修正*

AUSM -up格式是AUSM类系列格式中最完善的,通过在对流通量中引入压力耗散,同时在压力通量中引入速度耗散,使之在各种马赫数下均有良好的收敛性和稳定性。然而,通过对格式的分析,我们发现当马赫数为零时,在压力间断位置会出现质量通量无穷大的非物理现象。为了克服这一缺陷,采用特征线法获得了压力间断问题的解析解;以此为基础,对对流通量中的压力耗散项进行修正,发展出新的AUSM -up格式。以新的格式对不同速度驱动下的冲击波发展、不同强度压力间断问题和激波衍射问题进行了仿真,计算结果与理论解吻合得较好。     

用非概率理论分析混合不确定性结构的可靠性

针对不确定性结构可靠性分析中的输入变量分布参数具有不确定性和输入变量为区间模型的混合不确定性结构展开研究。考虑到可用信息最少的情况,将分布参数的不确定性描述为区间模型。通过等概率转换方法将随机变量与其分布参数进行分离,使问题转化为随机与区间变量混合的可靠性问题,建立了混合不确定性问题的可靠性分析模型。基于非概率可靠性理论,建立混合不确定结构分析模型的二级极限状态函数并结合Kriging代理模型建立了高效的求解方法。将所建立的混合不确定模型应用于飞行器结构的不确定性分析中,验证了所建模型的合理性和所提方法的高效性和准确性。     

Bivariate models from univariate life distributions: A characterization cum modeling approach

Bivariate life distribution models are of importance for studying interdependent components. We present a generic approach by introducing a new concept of characterized model in stead of a characterized distribution. It strikes a balance between characterization and modeling approaches to eliminate their individual limitations and incorporate their respective strengths. The proposed model, being a characterized one, admits many important properties irrespective of the choice of marginal distributions. The retention of univariate IFR, DFR, IFRA, DFRA, NBU, and NWU class properties in the bivariate setup has been ensured along with some results on series combinations and convolution. No other models, available in the literature, can ensure simultaneous retention of these fundamental and extremely important class properties. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Warranty costs: An age‐dependent failure/repair model

An age‐dependent repair model is proposed. The notion of the “calendar age” of the product and the degree of repair are used to define the virtual age of the product. The virtual failure rate function and the virtual hazard function related to the lifetime of the product are discussed. Under a nonhomogeneous Poisson process scenario the expected warranty costs for repairable products associated with linear pro‐rata, nonrenewing free replacement and renewing free replacement warranties are evaluated. Illustration of the results is given by numerical and graphical examples. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

A general approach to the shape of failure rate and MRL functions

Failure rate and mean residual life are two important characteristics for studying reliability of products. In literature, some work studied the shape of failure rate function based on the knowledge of the associated probability density function; some other work investigated the shape of mean residual life function based on the shape of the associated failure rate function separately for continuous case and discrete case. In this article, a general approach is developed which can be applied to the aforementioned studies. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

液态聚硅烷高温高压合成聚碳硅烷工艺研究

以聚二甲基硅烷裂解制备的液态聚硅烷(LPS)为原料,在高压釜内高温高压反应制备了聚碳硅烷(PCS)先驱体,研究了合成条件对反应终压、Si H键含量、产物产率、软化点、分子量分布及可纺性的影响。研究表明,随着反应温度的提高、反应时间的延长,反应终压逐渐增大,产物的分子量与软化点增高,但同时分子量的分散性增大,使可纺性变差。当LPS在高压釜内460℃下反应3～4h,或450℃下反应6～7h时,可以制得软化点约为210～230℃的PCS,其高分子部分含量约5wt%～10wt%,Si H键含量大于0.9,可纺性较好,适合于制备SiC纤维。