计算机网络级联失效建模与分析

针对以往级联失效模型负载局部重分配规则与现实计算机网络全局路由特点不吻合的缺陷,模拟网络中信息流传输过程。定义路由器的失效条件,建立基于负载全局重分配的级联失效模型,并在此基础上提出基于连通和性能两方面的级联失效影响评价参数,进而分析用户流量和攻击方式对计算机网络级联失效的影响。结果表明,随着流量的增大,级联失效存在相变行为,相变点刻画了网络在不会发生级联失效前提下的最大传输能力。此外,针对网络中高度节点的攻击,更为容易引发大规模的级联失效,应予以重点保护。     

基于回合制对抗推演的探索性仿真实验兵力行动序列生成

信息时代的战役、战斗越来越呈现出复杂系统的特性,而探索性仿真实验正是一种研究复杂系统的有效手段。为向探索性仿真实验提供符合人类决策过程的兵力行动序列,基于人机结合的思想,采用回合制对抗推演方法来生成决策序列并加以优化,并对决策向兵力行动转化的模型进行分析,将决策序列转化为兵力行动序列,为后续仿真实验提供了仿真输入。研究成果对军事专家如何参与探索性仿真实验具有一定的借鉴意义。     

面向装备健康管理的可测性指标研究

可测性指标是开展可测性设计、验证和评估的依据.针对传统可测性指标主要用于故障可检测性和故障可隔离性水平评价,不能全面反映面向装备健康管理可测性水平的问题,在定性分析装备健康管理对可测性的本质需求基础上,从全域和瞬态角度提出了五个可测性指标以定量描述面向装备健康管理的可测性水平;并基于故障模式状态矢量给出了可测性指标的分析计算流程.最后以某装备柴油机的机体子系统为案例详细说明了可测性指标的计算过程,应用结果表明所提指标具有一定的可行性和合理性,可以有效指导面向装备健康管理的可测性优化设计.     

E级超级计算机故障预测的数据采集方法

面向未来E级超级计算机,提出用于故障预测的数据采集框架,能够全面采集与计算结点故障相关的状态数据。采用自适应多层分组数据汇集方法,有效解决随着系统规模增长数据汇集过程开销过大的问题。在TH-1A超级计算机上的实现和测试表明,该数据采集框架具有开销小、扩展性好的优点,能够满足未来大规模系统故障预测数据采集的需求。     

基于ADC的炮兵激光观测仪侦察效能分析

运用了效能分析方法,针对复杂战场环境下炮兵侦察系统的效能进行分析,特别是炮兵激光观测仪,揭示其内在规律,为提高现有侦察装备的作战效能找到重要途径,也为指挥员的决策提供可靠的战略支持.在侦察系统效能分析理论的基础上,对典型的激光观测仪侦察装备进行了计算评估验证,其方法和成果可供其他武器系统效能评估时借鉴参考.     

基于改进协同遗传算法的有效载荷系统功能序列规划方法

针对传统回溯算法在求解基于知识模型的有效载荷系统功能序列规划问题中搜索效率低的问题,提出一种基于"择劣变异"(Worst Individual Mutation,WIM)策略的协同遗传算法(Co-evolutionary Genetic Algorithm,CGA)的改进算法WIM-CGA。该算法在遗传过程中采用双路线进化方案,即"择优实施标准遗传过程,择劣实施变异操作",达到提高求解精确度及搜索效率的目的。仿真结果表明,同等测试条件下,当功能规模为50,约束密度为1.0时,WIM-CGA算法在限定时间内最优解的平均精确度比优化的回溯算法提高了54.15%,比CGA算法提高了6.18%,且当所得解的精确度大于90%时,WIM-CGA算法比CGA算法的迭代次数减少了65.79%,耗时降低了48.97%,显著提高了功能序列规划的效率。     

一种改进的事件驱动系统框架

在给出事件驱动系统安全漏洞的基础上,指出了产生漏洞的根本原因是:系统忽视了输入系统的事件序列之间存在的相关性;系统无条件信任任何事件源产生的事件.针对这两个原因,相应提出了事件序列形式安全分析模型及基于事件源的可信度评估模型,依据这两个模型,构建了一种改进的事件驱动系统框架.     

Estimating failure time distribution and its parameters based on intermediate data from a Wiener degradation model

Instead of measuring a Wiener degradation or performance process at predetermined time points to track degradation or performance of a product for estimating its lifetime, we propose to obtain the first‐passage times of the process over certain nonfailure thresholds. Based on only these intermediate data, we obtain the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and uniformly most accurate confidence interval for the mean lifetime. For estimating the lifetime distribution function, we propose a modified maximum likelihood estimator and a new estimator and prove that, by increasing the sample size of the intermediate data, these estimators and the above‐mentioned estimator of the mean lifetime can achieve the same levels of accuracy as the estimators assuming one has failure times. Thus, our method of using only intermediate data is useful for highly reliable products when their failure times are difficult to obtain. Furthermore, we show that the proposed new estimator of the lifetime distribution function is more accurate than the standard and modified maximum likelihood estimators. We also obtain approximate confidence intervals for the lifetime distribution function and its percentiles. Finally, we use light‐emitting diodes as an example to illustrate our method and demonstrate how to validate the Wiener assumption during the testing. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

A general model of heterogeneous system lifetimes and conditions for system burn‐in

Burn‐in is a technique to enhance reliability by eliminating weak items from a population of items having heterogeneous lifetimes. System burn‐in can improve system reliability, but the conditions for system burn‐in to be performed after component burn‐in remain a little understood mathematical challenge. To derive such conditions, we first introduce a general model of heterogeneous system lifetimes, in which the component burn‐in information and assembly problems are related to the prediction of system burn‐in. Many existing system burn‐in models become special cases and two important results are identified. First, heterogeneous system lifetimes can be understood naturally as a consequence of heterogeneous component lifetimes and heterogeneous assembly quality. Second, system burn‐in is effective if assembly quality variation in the components and connections which are arranged in series is greater than a threshold, where the threshold depends on the system structure and component failure rates. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 364–380, 2003.     

故障诊断和容错技术在控制系统中的应用研究

介绍了控制系统的故障诊断和容错控制的基本概念和任务 ,评述了故障诊断和容错控制技术所用的各种方法 ,并对故障诊断和容错控制技术在核动力装置控制系统中应用的可行性进行了探讨 .