编辑与选题策划

选题策划作为出版工作的基础,对编辑素质和编辑工作,包括专业知识造诣、准确的市场定位、计算机运用、成本核算、市场策划在内的整个出版过程的策划等多方面的能力素质都有很高的要求。一名出色的编辑应该在进行选题策划时科学地把握相关的原则和要求,不断提高自身素质,不断为选题策划引入新思想、新方法。     

论公共消防安全管理中的利益诱导手段

强制手段、利益诱导手段、劝告与指导手段是管理学中所倡导的主要管理手段。在我国利益诱导手段尚未引起重视。以“以人为本,构建社会主义和谐社会”为指导,分析讨论了利益诱导手段在公共消防安全管理中的应用,并详细分析了经济手段、保险手段、激励手段的具体内容,意在改变我国公共消防管理手段单一的局面。     

反潜飞机对潜搜索法研究

反潜飞机使用吊放声纳对潜搜索具有不连续性.针对该特点,提出一种在实际搜索中能方便执行并且具有一定实用价值的搜索法.该法的基本思想是:通过增大或者减小取整的方法来保证起始相遇点在起始点,终止相遇点在该搜索段的终止点.算例验证该法正确可信.     

Optimization and mediated bartering models for ground delay programs

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the airline community within the United States have adopted a new paradigm for air traffic flow management, called Collaborative Decision Making (CDM). A principal goal of CDM is shared decision‐making responsibility between the FAA and airlines, so as to increase airline control over decisions that involve economic tradeoffs. So far, CDM has primarily led to enhancements in the implementation of Ground Delay Programs, by changing procedures for allocating slots to airlines and exchanging slots between airlines. In this paper, we discuss how these procedures may be formalized through appropriately defined optimization models. In addition, we describe how inter‐airline slot exchanges may be viewed as a bartering process, in which each “round” of bartering requires the solution of an optimization problem. We compare the resulting optimization problem with the current procedure for exchanging slots and discuss possibilities for increased decision‐making capabilities by the airlines. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

基于退化速率跟踪粒子滤波的剩余使用寿命预测框架

毋庸置疑,剩余使用寿命预测对于设备的健康管理越来越重要。近年来粒子滤波方法被越来越多地应用到设备寿命预测技术当中,这是因为粒子滤波方法能更好的解决非线性非高斯系统滤波问题,而且能够获得不确定度信息。但该方法的预测性能却过度依赖于预测模型,并且对于模型参数的初始分布也比较敏感,这在一定程度上限制了粒子滤波预测方法的进一步发展。本文针对基本粒子滤波预测方法的不足,提出了一种基于退化速率跟踪粒子滤波的通用预测框架,以历史观测数据的退化速率统计规律作为指导来跟踪目标数据的退化速率,实现对粒子滤波预测方法的简化。并将该方法用于轴承和锂离子电池的剩余使用寿命预测,验证了方法的有效性。     

DESIGNING A VIABLE PREDICTION MARKET TO FORECAST DEFENSE ACQUISITION COST AND SCHEDULE OUTCOMES

This paper is the first to demonstrate a viable prediction market that successfully forecasts defense acquisition cost and schedule outcomes, and to provide insights for defense executive decision‐making. Already used in private industry, prediction markets can also accurately forecast outcomes and their associated risks for government programs. Using virtual money, prediction markets allow traders to ‘bet’ on some future outcome. This market mechanism turns out to be a relatively simple and accurate way to discover, aggregate, and communicate to a defense executive the collective market’s beliefs about the likelihood of an eventual outcome of an acquisition program of interest.     

A theory of war economies

This article presents a proposed theory of how war economies are formed and maintained, as well as an integrated policy framework to guide the dismantling of war economies emanating from the proposed theory. Additionally, six potential areas for future research pertaining to the dismantling of war economies are also presented.     

ARMED NON-STATE ACTORS IN AFRICA AND THE BAN ON ANTI-PERSONNEL LANDMINES

A truly universal ban on anti-personnel mines cannot be realized without engagement of armed non-state actors and armed groups operating outside state control, including rebels and national liberation movements. Events after 9/11 have complicated engagement with organizations that can be classified as ‘terrorists’. Yet, the use of anti-personnel landmines itself can be viewed as an act of terrorism and African leaders have, on various occasions, classified the use of landmines and the presence of unexploded ordnance as engendering insecurity and a serious impediment to development. The success of a total ban ultimately depends upon ensuring that armed non-state actors act in accordance with international humanitarian law. The Geneva Call Deed of Commitment for Adherence to a Total Ban on Anti-Personnel Mines and for Cooperation in Mine Action (DoC) might be described as an alternative instrument to the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention and can serve an important and impartial channel of communication with non-state actors. Already 18 armed groups in Africa have signed the Geneva Call DoC.     

基于战法仿真综合集成研讨厅的专家行为研究

针对战法仿真实验的复杂性及其仿真可信度要求,结合基于战法仿真实验的综合集成研讨厅平台,分析了专家在战法仿真实验中的地位和作用,研究提出了仿真实验中专家的行为要求和规范,为基于战法仿真综合集成研讨厅的创新应用提供了理论和方法。经应用证明,该方法可以有效地提高战法仿真过程的透明度和仿真实验结果的可信度。具有很强的适应性和实用性。     

The British army,information management and the First World War revolution in military affairs

Information Management (IM) – the systematic ordering, processing and channelling of information within organisations – forms a critical component of modern military command and control systems. As a subject of scholarly enquiry, however, the history of military IM has been relatively poorly served. Employing new and under-utilised archival sources, this article takes the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) of the First World War as its case study and assesses the extent to which its IM system contributed to the emergence of the modern battlefield in 1918. It argues that the demands of fighting a modern war resulted in a general, but not universal, improvement in the BEF’s IM techniques, which in turn laid the groundwork, albeit in embryonic form, for the IM systems of modern armies.