Using a birth‐and‐death process to estimate the steady‐state distribution of a periodic queue

If the number of customers in a queueing system as a function of time has a proper limiting steady‐state distribution, then that steady‐state distribution can be estimated from system data by fitting a general stationary birth‐and‐death (BD) process model to the data and solving for its steady‐state distribution using the familiar local‐balance steady‐state equation for BD processes, even if the actual process is not a BD process. We show that this indirect way to estimate the steady‐state distribution can be effective for periodic queues, because the fitted birth and death rates often have special structure allowing them to be estimated efficiently by fitting parametric functions with only a few parameters, for example, 2. We focus on the multiserver M_t/GI/s queue with a nonhomogeneous Poisson arrival process having a periodic time‐varying rate function. We establish properties of its steady‐state distribution and fitted BD rates. We also show that the fitted BD rates can be a useful diagnostic tool to see if an M_t/GI/s model is appropriate for a complex queueing system. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 664–685, 2015     

基于灰局势决策理论的维修级别分析方法

简要介绍了某型无人机维修级别分析及灰局势决策理论的一般概念,针对传统维修级别分析中经济性分析的数据来源广、模型可信度较差的情况,研究基于灰局势决策原理建模的一般方法,通过筛选原始数据并修正计算公式,大大减少了冗余计算,最后运用这一模型对某机载无线电设备进行了经济性分析。     

基于灰色关联分析的装甲装备人因故障影响因素研究

根据装甲装备在试验和使用中人因故障发生的原因,将人因故障影响因素分为设计因素、维修因素、使用因素、人体机能因素、人机界面因素和环境因素6类,采用灰色关联分析法对其进行辨识分析,发现造成装甲装备人因故障率从高到低的因素依次为：维修因素、使用因素、人机界面因素、设计因素、环境因素和人体机能因素,该研究结果可为装甲装备综合管理和设计提供理论依据。     

火灾统计工作中存在的问题及其对策

本文结合重庆市火灾统计工作实际,简要剖析在火灾统计工作中普遍存在的问题,并提出解决问题的对策。     

火灾统计分析初探

火灾统计分析是将火灾统计数据转变为有效信息的一个环节 ,是为决策提供优质服务的切入点 ,是关系到火灾统计工作能否真正发挥对消防管理工作的“指示仪”、“校正器”作用的关键。文章叙述了火灾统计分析的一些相关内容 ,并就改进火灾统计分析进行了探讨。     

基于灰色模型的电磁轨道发射装置温度研究

在电磁发射过程中导轨温度受众多因素影响,而其中部分因素很难进行精确分析,为此运用灰色系统的分析方法对电磁轨道发射装置温度进行研究。为获取模型所需实验数据,搭建电磁轨道发射装置测试系统,并借此测量发射过程中的电流、导轨温度、出口速度等数据。由于测量仪器限制,借助ANSYS有限元仿真对测得的导轨温度数据进行修正,以获得导轨内表面温度。基于经典GM(1,N)模型与Simpson公式,提出一种改进型灰色模型,并以此方法对导轨温度展开研究,进一步选取同能级试验,对不同位置处各因素温升贡献度进行讨论。结论为进一步深入研究导轨温度提供参考和依据。     

海底小目标数据库功能和运用方法研究

利用海底小目标数据库中的数据信息辅助探猎雷作战,可以摆脱传统探猎雷作战行动中的盲目性,优化反水雷作战流程,有效提高反水雷作战效率。如何科学构建数据库功能,合理设计数据存储、查询和调用的方式方法,以充分发挥各类探测数据的潜在作用,对辅助反水雷战术指挥决策具有重要意义。本文根据海底小目标对探猎雷作战的影响,提出目标位置比对、声纳图像比对、探测态势比对和数据统计分析是海底小目标数据库所应具备的主要功能,结合探猎雷过程中的典型作战环节,阐述了各项功能的基本运用方法和实现手段,指出数据的“量”“质”以及采集规范和维护管理制度,均是数据库建设的重要前提,并对建设数据库所应具备的保障条件进行了 说明。     

Dynamic signatures and their use in comparing the reliability of new and used systems

The signature of a system with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) component lifetimes is a vector whose ith element is the probability that the ith component failure is fatal to the system. System signatures have been found to be quite useful tools in the study and comparison of engineered systems. In this article, the theory of system signatures is extended to versions of signatures applicable in dynamic reliability settings. It is shown that, when a working used system is inspected at time t and it is noted that precisely k failures have occurred, the vector s [0,1]^n‐k whose jth element is the probability that the (k + j)th component failure is fatal to the system, for j = 1,2,2026;,n ‐ k, is a distribution‐free measure of the design of the residual system. Next, known representation and preservation theorems for system signatures are generalized to dynamic versions. Two additional applications of dynamic signatures are studied in detail. The well‐known “new better than used” (NBU) property of aging systems is extended to a uniform (UNBU) version, which compares systems when new and when used, conditional on the known number of failures. Sufficient conditions are given for a system to have the UNBU property. The application of dynamic signatures to the engineering practice of “burn‐in” is also treated. Specifically, we consider the comparison of new systems with working used systems burned‐in to a given ordered component failure time. In a reliability economics framework, we illustrate how one might compare a new system to one successfully burned‐in to the kth component failure, and we identify circumstances in which burn‐in is inferior (or is superior) to the fielding of a new system. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

Consecutive k‐within‐m‐out‐of‐n:F system with exchangeable components

As a generalization of k‐out‐of‐n:F and consecutive k‐out‐of‐n:F systems, the consecutive k‐within‐m‐out‐of‐n:F system consists of n linearly ordered components such that the system fails iff there are m consecutive components which include among them at least k failed components. In this article, the reliability properties of consecutive k‐within‐m‐out‐of‐n:F systems with exchangeable components are studied. The bounds and approximations for the survival function are provided. A Monte Carlo estimator of system signature is obtained and used to approximate survival function. The results are illustrated and numerics are provided for an exchangeable multivariate Pareto distribution. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

多目标灰关联决策的典型水面舰艇反潜性能评估

水面舰艇反潜武器系统具有综合功能强、战技性能指标多的特点,许多指标模糊性、相对性较强,必须寻求一种能对武器系统战技技能进行有效评估的方法,采用多目标灰关联决策的方法对水面舰艇反潜武器系统战技技能进行评估.首先根据灰色系统理论建立了多目标灰关联决策模型,其次以灰色关联度为基本依据构造出水面舰艇反潜武器战技性能评估指数,最后根据所建立的模型对5种典型水面舰艇的反潜性能进行了综合评估.