Country failure and social grievances in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949: An economic approach

The Civil War that took place in Greece between the Communist Party and the Centre-Right Government during 1946–1949 is examined from a political economy perspective. The cost of the conflict is measured as output forgone relative to what it would have prevailed had Greece followed a post-war recovery similar to that of other nations in Western Europe. A two-stage approach compares Nazi-occupied countries with neutral ones to assess the cost inflicted by Second World War, and then compares Greece with the former to estimate the impact of the civil conflict. A regional analysis finds that the political discontent was mainly shaped by pre-war socio-economic grievances, rather than being affected by contemporaneous deprivation or driven by class structure as hardliners of both sides preferred to present in pushing for an all-out confrontation. The failure to settle political rivalries and thus prevent the conflict is also discussed.     

A Territorial Conflict: Trade-offs and Strategies

We study a war scenario in which the winner occupies the loser’s territory. Attacking a territory increases the chance of winning, but also causes harm, which in turn decreases the territory’s value (i.e. the reward of winning). This paper highlights the effects of this trade-off on the equilibrium strategies of the warring states in a contest game with endogenous rewards. Providing both static and dynamic models, our analysis captures insights regarding strategic behavior in asymmetric contests with such conflict.     

Asbestos in the collection of the Royal Armouries and the conservation of a First World War German gasmask

In March 2015, in order to comply with Health and Safety Regulations, the Royal Armouries contracted an external company to carry out an asbestos audit. This article looks at what that audit entailed and also how a gasmask suspected of containing asbestos, was made safe in order to conserve and display it.     

基于复杂网络的作战描述模型研究*

针对传统作战模型重点关注兵力的毁伤,不能充分地反映信息时代作战的特点,提出了一个基于复杂网络的作战描述模型,把作战单元抽象成节点,把各单元之间的相互作用抽象成有向边,将战场描述为一个由传感器、决策器、影响器、目标四类节点组成的有向网络图。定义了网络模型的若干特征参数,把作战环看成是反映作战能力的指标,并区别分析了标准作战环和广义作战环,能更好地反映信息时代作战的特点。最后实例研究了传统作战条件下决策器连通程度的变化给作战能力带来的影响。     

装备战损量的兰彻斯特方程预计方法*

针对装备战损量预计这一未来作战装备保障必须解决的核心问题,运用兰彻斯特方程探讨解决途径。从分析影响装备战损的因素出发,综合讨论目前预计装备战损量的方法,提出基于指数多元兰彻斯特方程的装备战损量预计模型和模型中毁伤能力系数的确定方法,得到了装备战损量的兰彻斯特方程预计方法,并举例验证。该方法将经验计算与模拟计算相结合,用较简单的确定性解析方程描述所考虑因素对装备战损量的客观约束关系,较好地满足了未来信息化条件下作战装备战损量预计的需要。     

Measuring Intermediate Outcomes of Liberia’s Disarmament,Demobilization, Rehabilitation and Reintegration Program

This paper re-analyzes data from a survey of ex-combatants in Liberia conducted in, to estimate the effect of Liberia’s Demobilization, Disarmament, Rehabilitation and Reintegration program on participants’ income and employment status. As program completion was not random, these estimates are biased. I use propensity score matching to obtain a more precise estimate. The results indicate a higher employment rate for those who complete the program, although there is consistently no effect on income. These results have implications for both evaluating the outcomes in Liberia and the integrated approach to ex-combatant reintegration that the program embodied.     

微信:网络舆论战的新利器

微信以惊人的速度发展,成为时下最热门的社交信息平台和绝大多数手机用户的一种生活方式。微信是舆论生成和扩散的重要平台,其多元化的信息、多渠道的传播以及创新的特点,为网络舆论战带来了全新的机遇。把握微信的信息传播特点,有效针对特定对象人群,采取积极主动的方式开展网络舆论宣传与自我防御,使微信成为舆论战发展的有力工具,是新时期开展网络舆论战的必然选择。     

The German wars of liberation 1807–1815: The restrained insurgency

In the Age of Napoleon, ‘small wars’ and ‘revolutionary war’ were closely connected. There were, however, different strands of this phenomenon: speaking professionally, conservative officers condemned small wars as an irregular regression to previous less disciplined forms of warfare. The Prussian state continually tried to discipline and regulate spontaneous risings. Yet the irregular character of small wars offered the opportunities for a less complex way of fighting, thus enabling the arming of the ‘people’ to fight. Individual undertakings, such as Ferdinand von Schill's doomed campaign in 1809, were designed to spark off a general popular uprising. But they were cheered by many and supported by few. Meanwhile, Neidhardt von Gneisenau conceived guerrilla-style Landsturm home-defence forces, which were designed for an irregular people's war. These concepts were put into practice in the ‘war of freedom’ – or ‘war of liberation’ – in 1813. Eventually both the mobilisation and the tactics remained regular, however, despite the emphatic appeal to a national ‘people's war’.     

Beyond balancing? Intrastate conflict and US grand strategy

Grand strategic theorists share an historical emphasis on interstate conflict, yet in contrast to the more frequent intrastate conflicts, these represent only 7 of the some 273 US military deployments since 1900. We argue that these intrastate conflicts limit the utility of regional balances of power in mitigating forms of conflict that the US may consider inimical to its national security interests. When considering potential changes to US force posture and grand strategy, American coercive statecraft should be theorised along a broader strategic continuum encompassing the full range of conflict.