导弹服役年限建模与分析

影响导弹服役年限的主要因素有自然因素、技术因素以及经济因素。合理地确定导弹的服役年限,是减少军费开支、降低导弹全寿命费用的有效途径。从导弹服役年限的概念入手,在提出用经济寿命法确定导弹的服役年限的基础上,通过数学分析,建立经济模型和经济比较模型,确定了导弹服役年限,并结合实例进行了仿真和验证,从而证明了模型的实际应用价值。     

无人机集群反制技术剖析

无人机集群作战具有作战效能高、战场生存能力强、效费比极高的巨大优势,将给传统防空系统带来巨大挑战。现有反无人机集群技术大多来源于反无人机技术,但反平台与反集群存在显著差异,必须针对无人机集群自身技战术特点,加强对精确/高效/低成本的集群反制技术研究。因此,本文以剖析无人机集群反制技术的可行性为出发点,首先,从反无人机集群作战视角,将无人机集群划分为无自主时空协同型(Ⅰ类)、半自主编组协同型(Ⅱ类)、全自主任务协同型(Ⅲ类)三种类型,明确Ⅱ类无人机集群为主要反制对象;其次,深入分析无人机集群的技术弱点与战术劣势,以此作为无人机集群反制技术可行性的关键切入点;最后,梳理出七大类有效的无人机集群反制技术,并对其可行性进行分析,以期为未来无人机集群反制技术发展方向提供参考。     

基于打击链的智能武器风险分析与控制方法研究

打击链是分析武器和系统等作战要素有效性的一种方法。针对当前智能武器概念缺乏一致定义的问题,本文提出了基于打击链作战方式的智能武器判定方法。针对智能武器认定困难引发的军控措施争论,分析了智能武器两方面的失控风险:人失去对自主武器的控制权与自主武器本身存在不可控因素和缺陷;以及智能武器的问责困境:如何在指挥者、编程者与智能武器之间分配责任。在此基础上,思考了智能武器在未来战争体系对抗中的使用模式,提出了智能武器的风险控制与军备控制方法方面的建议,包括"武器+AI"与"AI+武器"模式探讨、限制智能武器作用域、智能武器应内嵌物理限制系统、限制智能武器的训练数据以及国防采办过程控制等。     

Research on the intermediate phase of 40CrMnSiB steel shell under different heat treatments

In this study, 40CrMnSiB steel cylindrical shells were tempered at 350, 500 and 600 ℃ to study the effect of tempering temperature on the dynamic process of expansion and fracture of the metal shell. A mid-explosion recovery experiment for the metal cylinder under internal explosive loading was designed, and the wreckage of the casings at the intermediate phase was obtained. The effects of different tempering temperatures on the macroscopic and microscopic fracture characteristics of 40CrMnSiB steel were studied. The influence of tempering temperatures on the fracture characteristic parameters of the recovered wreckage were measured and analyzed, including the circumferential divide size, the thick-ness and the number of the circumferential divisions. The results show that as the tempering temper-ature was increased from 350 to 600 ℃, at first, the degree of fragmentation and the fracture characteristic parameters of the recovered wreckage changed significantly and then became essentially consistent. Scanning electron microscopy analysis revealed flow-like structure characteristics caused by adiabatic shear on different fracture surfaces. At the detonation initiation end of the casing, fracturing was formed by tearing along the crack, which existed a distance from the initiation end and propagated along the axis direction. In contrast, the fracturing near the middle position consists of a plurality of radial shear fracture units. The amount of alloy carbide that was precipitated during the tempering process increased continuously with tempering temperature, leading to an increasing number of spherical carbide particles scattered around the fracture surface.     

Thermal and combustion behavior of Al-MnO2 nanothermite with poly(vinylidene fluoride -co- hexafluoropropylene) energetic binder

Fluoropolymers get increasing attention in energetic materials application due to the high fluorine content. To explore the effect of poly(vinylidene fluoride-co-hexafluoropropylene) (P(VDF-HFP)) on Al/MnO2 nanothermite, the samples with different contents are prepared and characterized by SEM, TG-DSC, XRD, and their ignition and combustion behavior are tested and recorded. The results show that P(VDF-HFP) as an energetic binder can combine the nanothermite components together, even exist in the gaps. The integrity of energetic materials has been improved. Thermal analysis shows that the addition of P(VDF-HFP) greatly changes the thermal reaction processes, and the exothermic peaks appear early, but the utilization of fuel and oxidizer is not efficient from the XRD results. Furthermore, the appropriate addition of P(VDF-HFP) can directly reduce the ignition energy threshold and increase the combustion time, which is necessary for the potential ignition charge application. The possible reasons for above phenomena are discussed and analyzed. This research provides a reference for improvement of thermite-based ignition charge formulation.     

Effect of projectile parameters on opening behavior of PELE penetrating RC target

When a penetrator with enhanced lateral effect (PELE) impacts on a reinforced concrete (RC) target, the target is damaged with a large opening. An understanding of how PELE projectile parameters affect the opening dimension, is essential for effective design of the PELE projectile. In this study, under the condition that the impact velocity and target parameters (strength and thickness) were fixed values, the important influence factors of the PELE (jacket wall thickness B, jacket material strength Y1, filling material strength Y2 and angle of monolithic jacketθ) were determined by a dimensional analysis. Tests and simulations of the PELE penetrating the RC target were conducted to analyze the influence of these factors on opening diameter ((D), an equivalent diameter under relative kinetic energy). Based on the test and simulation results, it is found that the influence of these factors B, Y1 andθon the deformation mode of the jacket shows a similar trend:as values of the three factors decrease, the jacket deforms from small bending deformation to large one, and then to curling deformation. This causes the opening diameter to first increase with the decrease of these three factors, and then decreases. It is well known that the bending resistance of the jacket is related to these factors B, Y1 andθ. Therefore, a plastic limit bending moment (M0) of the jacket was quoted to characterize the influence of these factors on the bending deformation of the jacket and the opening diameter of the target. The influence factor Y2 causes (D) to first increase with the increase of Y2, and then decreases. A formula was developed to predict the opening diameter, whose influence parameters were considered in a dimensionless way. It has been shown that the dimensionless opening diameter (D)/d1 is dependent on two dimensionless parameters Q = (d31fc/M0) and G = (fc/Y2), where d1 and fc are the outer diameter of the projectile and the compressive strength of the target, respectively.     

热分析逸出气体氨的测定

用化学吸收光度法 (CAP)和热重 气相色谱联用法 (TG GC)测定了热分析逸出气中的氨。两种方法均简便、快捷和准确 ,通常回收率在 1 0 0± 6 %。比较了这些方法的使用范围     

主方差分析方法

该文提出一种对高维随机向量 X=( x1 ,x2 ,… ,xp)′p× 1 进行降维处理的实用方法 ,其基本思想是利用矩阵的扫描运算 ,构造 X的很少几个综合指标 (称为主方差变量 )以反映 X的统计特性。给出了该方法的理论依据和直观解释以及算法。特别指出 ,当变量 X多重相关性突出时 ,该文方法显著地优于主成分分析方法。     

应力-强度模型的Bayes可靠性分析

当应力、强度分别服从于正态分布、指数分布和Weibull分布时 ,分析了应力 -强度模型的可靠性评估 ,着重讨论了无信息验前下的Bayes可靠性评估。仿真结果表明 ,无信息验前下的评估结论可以很好地用频率学派的观点来解释。