基于退化速率跟踪粒子滤波的剩余使用寿命预测框架

毋庸置疑,剩余使用寿命预测对于设备的健康管理越来越重要。近年来粒子滤波方法被越来越多地应用到设备寿命预测技术当中,这是因为粒子滤波方法能更好的解决非线性非高斯系统滤波问题,而且能够获得不确定度信息。但该方法的预测性能却过度依赖于预测模型,并且对于模型参数的初始分布也比较敏感,这在一定程度上限制了粒子滤波预测方法的进一步发展。本文针对基本粒子滤波预测方法的不足,提出了一种基于退化速率跟踪粒子滤波的通用预测框架,以历史观测数据的退化速率统计规律作为指导来跟踪目标数据的退化速率,实现对粒子滤波预测方法的简化。并将该方法用于轴承和锂离子电池的剩余使用寿命预测,验证了方法的有效性。     

动态灰色时序系统 DGTS 及其在安全策略规范中的应用

设计安全策略模型时应考虑安全策略的时序特性和灰色特性,还应综合考虑保密性、完整性和可用性三方面的需求。已有的安全模型没有描述时序性和灰色特性,而且一般只侧重描述保密性或完整性。为此,本文提出了动态灰色时序系统（简称ＤＧＴＳ）。本文详细描述了ＤＧＴＳ,以及基于ＤＧＴＳ的动态语义设计的灰色时序安全策略规范语言ＧＴＳＬ。     

RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT: TRENDS IN COST AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR UK AEROSPACE

This paper, intended to stimulate debate, suggests that we are at a turning point in the history of the UK military aerospace industry. It argues that there is urgent need for a fresh vision as to how the UK military aerospace industry can both prosper and make its maximum contribution to the defence of Britain. Further, the resulting plans and policies must emphasise the robustness of defence capabilities in a future in which the only thing we can be certain is that it will be very different from the present – especially whenever defence most matters.     

ACQUIRING FOREIGN NUCLEAR ASSISTANCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has laid out an ambitious plan to become the first Arab country to possess a civilian nuclear energy program. Central to that effort has been the Emirati government's ability to obtain foreign nuclear assistance. This article traces the UAE's strategies for overcoming the obstacles that stood in the way of nuclear suppliers providing assistance. It examines the approach taken by the UAE to assuage the safety and security concerns of nuclear suppliers, how the UAE leveraged its alliances with France and the United States to obtain their cooperation, and its strategies for engaging domestic interest groups in supplier states. The generalizable elements of the UAE's strategies are discussed and used to provide insight into the prospects for other Middle Eastern states' bids to obtain similar assistance. The article concludes with a discussion of the potentially transformative aspects of the strategies employed by the UAE in shaping other countries' pursuit of nuclear energy in the region.     

A theory of war economies

This article presents a proposed theory of how war economies are formed and maintained, as well as an integrated policy framework to guide the dismantling of war economies emanating from the proposed theory. Additionally, six potential areas for future research pertaining to the dismantling of war economies are also presented.     

The management of security incidents by private security

This article is about the management of security incidents in organisations and companies which are under the protection of private security personnel, whether in-house or contracted. Incidents can be defined as accidental or anecdotal (bird flies into a camera) to a violation of law or company policy. Managing security incidents is one of the key functions of a private security service provider. The purpose of this study is to explore the management of security incidents and the information related thereto, identify shortcomings and find solutions for managing these shortcomings. Interviews were used to gain insight from personnel within the private and government sectors which are served by the private security industry. It was found that security incidents are handled in a routine way by organisations from the different sectors. One major shortcoming is that security incidents and the information related thereto are not managed by security service providers according to an operational framework or model with the required infrastructure and resources. The significance of this study is for security incidents to be managed correctly, so that the information related thereto may be captured accurately, analysed and used proactively and reactively to improve physical protection systems, develop preventative strategies and provide actionable information products in order to reduce crime, increase detection rates and prevent losses.     

The right place at the right time,or the right person in the right place?

South Africa's military has, since the First World War, been an oft-used and effective tool in the conduct of South African foreign policy, but this role has not always translated into power for Defence Department principals in its formulation. South African Defence Ministers for most of the country's history have played a minor role in the making of foreign policy; despite a change in this dynamic between approximately 1975–1990, the post-apartheid era has once again seen a diminishment of Defence's power in this arena. This article examines why Defence Ministers have generally been such weak players, with an eye toward disaggregating whether this was a product of interpersonal relationships with Cabinet and – most importantly – the Head of State, or whether this influence (or lack thereof) was more a function of South Africa's international standing. While determining who has influence on this process is difficult given the primacy of the national leader in making foreign policy and a lack of insider accounts by participants in the process, this article relies upon several interviews with participants and knowledgeable observers that help illuminate the process and Defence's role in it.     

Trinitarian troubles: governmental,military, and societal explanations for post-1945 Western failures in asymmetric conflicts

It seems paradoxical that powerful Western states are at their most vulnerable when the disparity in military capabilities between them and their opponents is at its largest. Yet it is precisely in such ‘asymmetric conflicts’ that Western countries have failed to achieve their overall political objectives the most often. Focusing on the post-1945 world, this article will examine governmental, military, and societal reasons for Western failures in asymmetric conflicts. Politicians' lack of understanding regarding war's fundamental nature, militaries' tendency to dissociate operational goals from grand strategy objectives and citizens' moral aversion to warfare appear to be among the main obstacles to success.     

一种面向宽带复杂信号侦察的可配置计算应用框架

可配置计算系统的优势与系统设计过程的复杂性是一对矛盾,可配置计算框架为此提供了有益的思路。但受限于适用范围与通用性考虑,已有的特别是商业框架仅支持系统的静态重构。本文针对宽带信号侦察这一特定应用领域,提出了一种功能级可配置计算应用框架BSRRCS-RCAF,该框架将领域应用中具有共性的计算与功能模块抽取和集中起来,形成二进制比特流配置文件库,并提供构建此类系统的公共服务体系。基于公共服务体系以及配置文件库,当需要修改或者重新构建宽带信号侦察系统时,只需在现有框架下动态调用配置组件库,或者遵循框架的统一设计接口完善补充组件库中的特定功能部分,整个系统设计框架将得到方便复用,便于实现基于快速重构的多种系统功能。     

谈外国旅游团来琼免签政策实施的不足与完善

外国旅游团来琼免签政策是目前我国实施时间最长、最宽松的区域性免签便利政策。阐述了外国旅游团来琼免签政策沿革演变历程,从入出境管理和边防检查的角度分析了其施行过程中存在的不足与原因,提出了完善免签政策的措施。