应急器材柔性采购定价建模与求解

由于当前应急器材储备依然存在“多储”或“少储”风险,为提高储备效益,以企业经济效益与军队采购成本为优化目标,提出了应急器材柔性采购策略。通过建立企业储备策略与军队采购定价最优化模型,求解得到了在不同战争爆发概率及器材现货市场价格区间等外部环境因素下的军队最佳柔性定价及对应的企业最优储备策略,并通过实例分析验证了得出的决策结论。结果表明,最优策略的实施将有利于军队与企业共担应急器材数量储备风险。     

复合假设下导弹可靠性指标Bayes检验方法

在用Bayes方法对海防战术导弹可靠性指标进行假设检验时,原假设和对立假设均采用简单假设的形式,而此种方法可能导致使用方Bayes风险增大。从理论上阐述了简单假设Bayes检验方法可能导致使用方Bayes风险增大的原因,同时给出了用于取代简单假设的复合假设Bayes检验方法,并用实例证明了它比简单假设Bayes检验方法科学、合理。     

边境安全风险评估矩阵模型构建研究

提出边境安全风险和边境安全风险评估的概念。围绕边境安全风险状态和边境安全风险类型两个维度构建边境安全风险评估的矩阵模型。其中,边境安全风险状态维度包括边境安全风险源活跃度、边境安全风险源聚集度、边境安全风险供应链成熟度、边境安全风险源异常度;边境安全风险类型包括外生型边境安全风险、内生型边境安全风险、网络型边境安全风险、跨境型边境安全风险。并论述了边境安全风险评估矩阵模型的应用。     

边检执勤执法风险评估制度的实践反思及理论建构

边检执勤执法风险评估是理论研究缺失下的制度实践,为避免出现“形式化”、“走过场”的弊病,亟须对其进行系统反思,并对风险评估制度的基本范畴、合理根基、合法来源、体系构成及目前实践中存在的问题以及改进的空间进行研究,在理论上构建并完善边检执勤执法风险评估制度,以进一步指导和完善边检机关风险评估工作实践。     

棕垫材料火灾危险性的热解动力学研究

利用热重分析仪,通过空气与氮气下棕垫材料的对比试验,建立热解表观动力学模型,对棕垫材料的火灾危险性进行分析。通过对试验数据的分析表明,在空气气氛下,棕垫材料第一步失重阶段热解表观动力学模型较好地符合相界反应球形对称模型,第二步与第三步失重阶段较好地符合二级反应模型,活化能范围为32.42-59.09 kJ·mol^-1;在氮气气氛下,棕垫第一步失重阶段较好地符合二级反应模型,第二步失重阶段较好地符合零级反应模型,活化能范围为56.92-72.56 kJ·mol^-1。对比分析其他室内材料的燃烧属性表明,棕垫材料活化能较低、热稳定性差。说明棕垫材料是一种易燃烧物质,火灾危险性较大。     

Unemployed youth: ‘time bombs’ or engines for growth?

While popular narratives about success in South Africa focus on individual effort, accidents of birth continue to determine life prospects. Inequalities in early childhood development, health, and education narrow the range of possibilities that young people have available to them, and this impacts on their risk appetite, including, through the workings of the maturing brain, a propensity to violence, substance abuse, and unsafe sex. New technology offers young people an unprecedented ability to organise and network. This fact, combined with high levels of youth dissatisfaction, unemployment, and marginalisation, leads many to worry that the young are “ticking time bombs”. While there certainly are risks, great unused pools of youth labour also present an opportunity for engaging them in social advancement programmes. Structured youth service is a tried and tested policy option that, when implemented as part of an integrated youth development strategy, can enlist thousands of young people in devoting their considerable energies to leadership for the public good.     

Evaluating the potential effects from probabilistic selling of similar products

In this article, we consider an online retailer who sells two similar products (A and B) over a finite selling period. Any stock left at the end of the period has no value (like clothes going out of fashion at the end of a season). Aside from selling the products at regular prices, he may offer an additional option that sells a probabilistic good, “A or B,” at a discounted price. Whenever a customer buys a probabilistic good, he needs to assign one of the products for the fulfillment. Considering the choice behavior of potential customers, we model the problem using continuous‐time, discrete‐state, finite‐horizon dynamic programming. We study the optimal admission decisions and devise two scenarios, whose value functions can be used as benchmarks to evaluate the demand induction effect and demand dilution effect of probabilistic selling (PS). We further investigate an extension of the base MDP (Markov Decision Process) model in which the fulfillment of probabilistic sales is uncontrollable by the retailer. A special case of the extended model can be used as a benchmark to quantify the potential inventory pooling effect of PS. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the overall profit improvement, and the effects from adopting the PS strategy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 61: 604–620, 2014     

多产权建筑消防安全隐患成因及安全对策

当前随着城市化的不断发展,多产权建筑不断涌现,通过对多产权建筑常见消防火灾隐患的列举及成因分析,结合实际,从健全消防法律体系、加强日常监管、加大消防安全宣传及加大消防安全投入等方面提出了安全对策。     

谈大型超市火灾的预防与扑救

通过分析大型日用百货及生熟食品超级市场的火灾危险性及火灾特点,提出现代大型超市火灾的预防对策和扑救大型超市火灾的战术要点,旨在宣传预防超市火灾的重要性,推动大型超市的消防安全管理,提高整个社会抵御超市火灾的能力。     

期望概率方法在火灾风险评估中的应用

在对传统方法与期望概率方法所得结果进行比较的基础上,应用期望概率方法对中国古建筑火灾损失和中国19502006年火灾损失进行风险评估,得到应用期望概率方法进行风险评估可以提高消防系统的安全标准,并且建议了一种简便迅速的评估计算方法。