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An important phenomenon often observed in supply chain management, known as the bullwhip effect, implies that demand variability increases as one moves up the supply chain, i.e., as one moves away from customer demand. In this paper we quantify this effect for simple, two‐stage, supply chains consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. We demonstrate that the use of an exponential smoothing forecast by the retailer can cause the bullwhip effect and contrast these results with the increase in variability due to the use of a moving average forecast. We consider two types of demand processes, a correlated demand process and a demand process with a linear trend. We then discuss several important managerial insights that can be drawn from this research. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 269–286, 2000 相似文献
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We revisit the capacity investment decision problem studied in the article “Resource Flexibility with Responsive Pricing” by Chod and Rudi [Operations Research 53, (2005) 532–548]. A monopolist firm producing two dependent (substitutable or complementary) products needs to determine the capacity of one flexible resource under demand risk so as to maximize its expected profit. Product demands are linear functions of the prices of both products, and the market potentials are random and correlated. We perform a comparative statics analysis on how demand variability and correlation impact the optimal capacity and the resulting expected profit. In particular, C&R study this problem under the following assumptions/approximations: (i) demand intercepts follow a bivariate Normal distribution; (ii) demand uncertainty is of an additive form; (iii) and under approximate expressions for the optimal capacity and optimal expected profit. We revisit Propositions 2, 3, 4, 5, and 10 of C&R without these assumptions and approximations, and show that these results continue to hold (i) for the exact expressions for the optimal expected profit and optimal capacity, and (ii) under any arbitrary continuous distribution of demand intercepts. However, we also show that the additive demand uncertainty is a critical assumption for the C&R results to hold. In particular, we provide a case of multiplicative uncertainty under which the C&R results (Propositions 2 and 3) fail. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2010 相似文献
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Ananth. V. Iyer 《海军后勤学研究》2002,49(4):376-390
We evaluate an approach to decrease inventory costs at retail inventory locations that share a production facility. The retail locations sell the same product but differ in the variance of retail demand. Inventory policies at retail locations generate replenishment orders for the production facility. The production facility carries no finished goods inventory. Thus, production lead time for an order is the sojourn time in a single server queueing system. This lead time affects inventory costs at retail locations. We examine the impact of moving from a First Come First Served (FCFS) production rule for orders arriving at the production facility to a rule in which we provide non‐preemptive priority (PR) to orders from retail locations with higher demand uncertainty. We provide three approximations for the ratio of inventory costs under PR and FCFS and use them to identify conditions under which PR decreases retail inventory costs over FCFS. We then use a Direct Approach to establish conditions when PR decreases retail inventory costs over FCFS. We extend the results to orders from locations that differ in the mean and variance of demand uncertainty. The analysis suggests that tailoring lead times to product demand characteristics may decrease system inventory costs. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 376–390, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10016 相似文献
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Substitutable product inventory problem is analyzed using the concepts of stochastic game theory. It is assumed that there are two substitutable products that are sold by different retailers and the demand for each product is random. Game theoretic nature of this problem is the result of substitution between products. Since retailers compete for the substitutable demand, ordering decision of each retailer depends on the ordering decision of the other retailer. Under the discounted payoff criterion, this problem is formulated as a two‐person nonzero‐sum stochastic game. In the case of linear ordering cost, it is shown that there exists a Nash equilibrium characterized by a pair of stationary base stock strategies for the infinite horizon problem. This is the unique Nash equilibrium within the class of stationary base stock strategies. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 359–375, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10018 相似文献
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Optimal operating policies and corresponding managerial insight are developed for the decision problem of coordinating supply and demand when (i) both supply and demand can be influenced by the decision maker and (ii) learning is pursued. In particular, we determine optimal stocking and pricing policies over time when a given market parameter of the demand process, though fixed, initially is unknown. Because of the initially unknown market parameter, the decision maker begins the problem horizon with a subjective probability distribution associated with demand. Learning occurs as the firm monitors the market's response to its decisions and then updates its characterization of the demand function. Of primary interest is the effect of censored data since a firm's observations often are restricted to sales. We find that the first‐period optimal selling price increases with the length of the problem horizon. However, for a given problem horizon, prices can rise or fall over time, depending on how the scale parameter influences demand. Further results include the characterization of the optimal stocking quantity decision and a computationally viable algorithm. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 303–325, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10013 相似文献
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张军 《兵团教育学院学报》2009,19(5):9-12
少数民族教育是我国教育的重要组成部分。发展少数民族教育,提高民族素质具有重要意义。本文从经济学中的效率与公平、供给与需求、成本与效益三个方面理论来分析我国的少数民族教育,从而更好地发展少数民族教育。 相似文献
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A well‐studied problem in airline revenue management is the optimal allocation of seat inventory among different fare‐classes, given a capacity for the flight and a demand distribution for each class. In practice, capacity on a flight does not have to be fixed; airlines can exercise some flexibility on the supply side by swapping aircraft of different capacities between flights as partial booking information is gathered. This provides the airline with the capability to more effectively match their supply and demand. In this paper, we study the seat inventory control problem considering the aircraft swapping option. For theoretical and practical purposes, we restrict our attention to the class of booking limit policies. Our analytical results demonstrate that booking limits considering the swapping option can be considerably different from those under fixed capacity. We also show that principles on the relationship between the optimal booking limits and demand characteristics (size and risk) developed for the fixed‐capacity problem no longer hold when swapping is an option. We develop new principles and insights on how demand characteristics affect the optimal booking limits under the swapping possibility. We also develop an easy to implement heuristic for determining the booking limits under the swapping option and show, through a numerical study, that the heuristic generates revenues close to those under the optimal booking limits. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011 相似文献