舰载无人机对岸可观测安全飞行空间分析模型

基于舰载无人机对岸上目标的观测能力出发研究出的"理想观参",考虑各种因素对舰载无人机在任务区域飞行安全的影响,建立了地理通视性分析模型、地理可飞性分析模型、飞行可控性分析模型、弹道安全性分析模型和观参上限分析模型;综合上述模型,给出了舰载无人机可观测安全飞行空间,满足可观测安全飞行空间的观测参数即为当前环境下的"实用观参";根据本文模型研制的舰载无人机对岸射击观测辅助决策软件,实现了舰载无人机对岸射击观测的科学决策。     

无人系统安全防护研究

当前,无人作战系统在大规模、高烈度、高科技体系对抗中的安全防护能力尚显不足,需从多方面加以提升。本文首先从自然环境、协同运用、综合对抗以及自主权限给无人系统带来的安全风险为出发点,深入分析了无人系统的安全防护需求;其次,根据需求,总结了无人系统安全防护的目标,并分别从提升无人系统环境适应性能、降低无人系统可探测概率、强化无人系统抗毁伤能力、夯实无人系统自主作战安全性设计等四方面详述了无人系统可采取的安全防范措施;再次,利用体系防护资源,结合无人平台和载荷的防护基础,提出了内外一体的、控制与防护分离的协同安全架构;最后,对无人系统安全防护的未来发展趋势进行了展望。     

A critical look at the U.S. deceased‐donor organ procurement and utilization system

The U.S. system for procuring and utilizing deceased‐donor organs for transplantation has been studied and written about in many articles. The purpose of this paper is to examine the interactions between the elements that comprise this system, and point out improvement opportunities that may be affected through operations research/management techniques. The authors demonstrate the need for developing data‐driven and analytic tools. In fact, data is used to generate hypotheses and support claims throughout the paper. The paper also points out the need to fully leverage data that is available to researchers, and to seek data that is currently not deposited in a centralized archive.     

Balancing and optimizing a portfolio of R&D projects

A mathematical formulation of an optimization model designed to select projects for inclusion in an R&D portfolio, subject to a wide variety of constraints (e.g., capital, headcount, strategic intent, etc.), is presented. The model is similar to others that have previously appeared in the literature and is in the form of a mixed integer programming (MIP) problem known as the multidimensional knapsack problem. Exact solution of such problems is generally difficult, but can be accomplished in reasonable time using specialized algorithms. The main contribution of this paper is an examination of two important issues related to formulation of project selection models such as the one presented here. If partial funding and implementation of projects is allowed, the resulting formulation is a linear programming (LP) problem which can be solved quite easily. Several plausible assumptions about how partial funding impacts project value are presented. In general, our examples suggest that the problem might best be formulated as a nonlinear programming (NLP) problem, but that there is a need for further research to determine an appropriate expression for the value of a partially funded project. In light of that gap in the current body of knowledge and for practical reasons, the LP relaxation of this model is preferred. The LP relaxation can be implemented in a spreadsheet (even for relatively large problems) and gives reasonable results when applied to a test problem based on GM's R&D project selection process. There has been much discussion in the literature on the topic of assigning a quantitative measure of value to each project. Although many alternatives are suggested, no one way is universally accepted as the preferred way. There does seem to be general agreement that all of the proposed methods are subject to considerable uncertainty. A systematic way to examine the sensitivity of project selection decisions to variations in the measure of value is developed. It is shown that the solution for the illustrative problem is reasonably robust to rather large variations in the measure of value. We cannot, however, conclude that this would be the case in general. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 18–40, 2001     

装备研制项目技术风险评估模型

建立了装备研制项目技术风险评估模型,并用系统分析的方法,实现了对技术风险的动态评估,并以示例进行了验证.     

Repairable consecutive‐k‐out‐of‐n: F system with Markov dependence

In this article, a model for a repairable consecutive‐k‐out‐of‐n: F system with Markov dependence is studied. A binary vector is used to represent the system state. The failure rate of a component in the system depends on the state of the preceding component. The failure risk of a system state is then introduced. On the basis of the failure risk, a priority repair rule is adopted. Then the transition density matrix can be determined, and the analysis of the system reliability can be conducted accordingly. One example each of a linear and a circular system is then studied in detail to explain the model and methodology developed in this paper. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 18–39, 2000     

基于Arena仿真的事故网络风险耦合特性分析

风险传递过程中,耦合是导致风险突变的重要原因。为提供风险耦合控制方法,给出风险耦合的形式化描述,采用风险耦合弹性系数对耦合强度进行计算;基于Arena软件对某型非致命武器设计论证阶段的进度风险和费用风险之间的耦合特性进行仿真分析,分别仿真了单指标、多指标在线性和非线性耦合情形下的系统行为,结果表明:全局性的线性耦合和高强度非线性耦合能显著改变系统行为。相关结果为风险耦合控制策略的制定提供了参考。     

一种基于Petri网模型的系统动态安全性分析方法

针对目前安全分析方法通常只能给出导致系统失效的事件发生序列,而对系统运行过程中的一些时序、动态等因素考虑不足等问题,提出了基于Petri网模型的系统安全性动态分析方法,并结合系统状态可达树,建立了系统动态安全性分析模型,得出导致系统失效的所有可能事件的序列及其发生概率.最后,以实例验证了该方法的可靠性和有效性.     

武器装备体系建设风险分析及评估模型研究

分析了武器装备体系建设风险的内涵及特点,在此基础上构建了武器装备体系建设风险模型,并运用风险矩阵和网络层次分析法对武器装备体系建设风险模型进行分析,通过算例验证了模型的可行性,为制定科学合理的武器装备体系建设风险管理提供了依据。     

基于运行安全分析的核动力仿真软件的研究与应用

对基于运行安全分析的核动力仿真软件的基本功能及其数学物理模型进行研究.运用工具软件对设备冷却水系统的正常与异常运行工况进行了仿真计算及结果的分析.与RELAP5/MOD3计算结果的比较表明,该软件可广泛用于核动力一回路辅助系统及二回路系统的仿真分析.