Better is the Neighbor?

Abstract

This study applies the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM), to investigate the convergence properties of the military expenditure of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during the period of 1990–2015. Compared to the traditional methods, SPSM considers fundamentally general spatial homogeneous and heterogeneous relationships with countries and examines the evolution of military expenditure. We find that four-fifths of NATO member countries have been convergent with the UK, but no country’s military expenditure is convergent with the US. This means that there is no significant linkage effect in the US for NATO military expenditure. While they are allies of the US, the majority of NATO member countries’ military expenditures are consistent with UK military expenditure. The main reasons are due to the geographical space layout and the international relationship convergence. The results indicate that more than four-fifths of NATO member countries have been coordinated with convergence theory and spillover effect.     

高铁大风预警模式挖掘

高铁大风预警的传统方法基于风速预测,当瞬时值高于限速阈值时触发报警,存在大量的误报警,不必要的限速控制影响了高铁行车效率。创新地提出了基于序列模式的预警方法,旨在挖掘报警事件前序数据中的频繁模式,找出报警事件的变化规律,通过滤除与非预警序列共有的频繁模式,得到预警序列独有的序列特征,构建了预警模式库。经兰新高铁沿线的监测数据验证,该方法在提高预测准确率的基础上降低了漏报率,同时有效地减少了模式匹配所需的时间,为提前预警预留充分的时间窗口,更加符合实际应用的需求。     

铝导线短路熔珠对固体可燃物引燃能力实验研究

在模拟试验平台上进行了铝导线短路熔珠引燃棉布、聚氨酯泡沫塑料和纸张的试验,得到了不同材料的临界加栽电压值和引燃规律。初步分析了加栽电压与短路熔珠粒径及引燃能力的关系。结果表明,随着短路电压增大,导线熔珠的粒径逐渐增大,熔珠对固体材料的引燃能力逐渐增强,氧指数越低、表面粗糙、易蓄热的材料越容易被点燃。棉布、聚氨酯泡沫塑料和纸屑被引燃的短路临界电压分别为50V、35V和45V。     

圆柱形容器爆炸焊接数值模拟与实验

针对深空探测采样容器的特殊要求,进行爆炸焊接严实密封技术研究。利用非线性动力学软件进行铝质柱形容器爆炸焊接数值模拟,得到各种焊接初始参数的影响规律,确定较佳焊接初始参数及容器结构尺寸,并进行实验验证。实验结果表明:外盖角度为7°时,1mm壁厚外盖配4mm壁厚内圆柱或2mm壁厚外盖配6mm壁厚内圆柱,配以较合适炸药厚度,密实焊接效果较理想。研究结果为深空探测采样容器结构设计提供了较好的参考。     

超音速子母弹时序抛撒分离干扰特性

为分析在时序抛撒方式下子母弹多体干扰流场特性及其对各舱段弹体气动特性的影响,基于流体控制方程与六自由度刚体运动方程,结合非结构动网格技术,分别对两种时序抛撒方式及后舱子弹单独抛撒方式下的子母弹三维非定常分离流场进行数值模拟,得到不同抛撒时序下的分离流场特性及其气动干扰特性,揭示各舱段子弹在不同分离阶段的气动干扰相互作用过程。研究结果表明:在时序抛撒分离过程中各弹体间激波不断地交错干扰,增加了流场结构的复杂性;前舱子弹的激波干扰使得后舱段子弹气动分离参数较低,分离效率较慢,尤其在短时序间隔下,后舱弹体受前舱子弹干扰较为严重,弹体的安全分离受到影响。     

定时截尾与序贯截尾可靠性试验方案分析比较

在生产方、使用方风险及MTBF值同等条件下,对定时截尾与序贯截尾2种试验方案的优缺点、基本原理和方法等进行了对比分析。定时截尾试验能够在事先确定最大累计工作时间及所消耗资源,但所需时间较长,试验成本较高,可应用于武器装备可靠性鉴定和验收试验;序贯截尾试验事先对试验总时间及试验所需用资源无法确定,只能根据事先拟定的接收、拒收条件结束试验,无法估计MTBF的真值,但是所需试验时间较短,费用相对较低,可用于武器装备可靠性验收试验,也可广泛运用于医学及其它科学试验领域。提出了选择可靠性试验方案的基本原则,为科学选择试验方案提供了依据。     

一种新的火炮武器系统射击精度试验方法

射击精度是反应火炮武器系统性能的最重要技术指标,通过对以往射击精度试验中采用的建立在大子样统计理论基础上的传统评定方法进行了分析,对目前采用的序贯截尾原理和方法进行阐述,并指出前两种方法没有利用验前信息,试验次数和试验风险比较大等缺点,由此提出一种新的贝叶斯截尾序贯检验法。这种小样本统计推断方法的基本思想是充分利用已有的验前信息,实现了多阶段试验信息的综合利用,能够减少试验次数,缩短试验周期,节约试验经费。     

钢焊丝脉冲GMA焊最佳熔滴过渡形式的参数模型

基于磁流体微扰动“失稳”的原理,建立了钢焊丝脉冲GMA焊最佳熔滴过渡形式的参数模型。通过试验对比,验证了该模型的工程实用性。     

图像识别技术在射线探伤中的应用

针对焊缝射线探伤中的缺陷评片问题,利用数字成像及图像识别技术,对射线探伤底片进行了计算机自动识剐技术的研究,并以此为基础,对典型缺陷进行了识别.结果显示,利用此技术能够提高和改进评片的质量及效率.     

Optimization of process parameters of the activated tungsten inert gas welding for aspect ratio of UNS S32205 duplex stainless steel welds

The activated TIG (ATIG) welding process mainly focuses on increasing the depth of penetration and the reduction in the width of weld bead has not been paid much attention. The shape of a weld in terms of its width-to-depth ratio known as aspect ratio has a marked influence on its solidification cracking tendency. The major influencing ATIG welding parameters, such as electrode gap, travel speed, current and voltage, that aid in controlling the aspect ratio of DSS joints, must be optimized to obtain desirable aspect ratio for DSS joints. Hence in this study, the above parameters of ATIG welding for aspect ratio of ASTM/UNS S32205 DSS welds are optimized by using Taguchi orthogonal array (OA) experimental design and other statistical tools such as Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Pooled ANOVA techniques. The optimum process parameters are found to be 1 mm electrode gap, 130 mm/min travel speed, 140 A current and 12 V voltage. The aspect ratio and the ferrite content for the DSS joints fabricated using the optimized ATIG parameters are found to be well within the acceptable range and there is no macroscopically evident solidification cracking.