US Advanced Conventional Systems and Conventional Prompt Global Strike Ambitions:

ABSTRACT

The dangers and risks of employing a Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) capability greatly exceed the benefits. More suitable, if less prompt, alternatives exist to deal with fleeting targets. Even a niche CPGS capability—consisting of approximately twenty systems—carries risks, to say nothing of proposals to develop hundreds or more. Most dangerously, CPGS could stir the pre-emption pot, particularly vis-à-vis states that correctly perceive to be within the gunsights of US CPGS weapons; other states, too, may feel emboldened to emulate this US precedent and undertake their own form of prompt, long-range strike capability. Compressed circumstances surrounding such a scenario could foster unwanted erratic behavior, including the misperception that the threatening missile carries a nuclear weapon. But the true Achilles's heel of the CPGS concept is the unprecedented demands it places on the intelligence community to provide decision makers with “exquisite” intelligence within an hour timeframe. Such compressed conditions leave decision makers with virtually no time to appraise the direct—and potentially unintended—consequences of their actions.     

At war with social theory: Instrumental and communicative action in US military doctrine during the War on Terror

As US counterinsurgency campaigns draw to a close, doctrine for asymmetric warfare written during the War on Terror has come under heavy criticism. While many have argued that this shift to ‘winning hearts and minds’ is evidence that the United States is taking humanitarianism and nation-building seriously, others argue that a wide gap exists between US counterinsurgency doctrine and the protection of civilians afflicted by conflict. In this article, I show that the latter is true by comparing theories of instrumental and communicative action to US doctrine for operational design, stability operations, and counterinsurgency. I argue that these texts treat the people as an object to be manipulated for the achievement of pre-determined self-interested strategic goals rather than members of a community that jointly designs operations to fulfill shared objectives. However, US doctrine does contain communicative elements that, if prioritized, would better support humanitarian and state-building objectives otherwise subordinated in the War on Terror.     

基于磁强计和光纤陀螺的小卫星姿态确定非线性滤波算法

提出了一种小卫星姿态确定的非线性滤波算法,该算法利用三轴磁强计和光纤陀螺作为姿态敏感器。在非线性滤波器的设计中,从两个方面对平方根sigma点卡尔曼滤波方法进行改进。第一,把姿态四元数的矢量部分、光纤陀螺的漂移和噪声组合,得到滤波器的增广状态向量;第二,分别建立向量旋转模型、最优化模型和误差四元数乘法模型来确保非线性滤波过程中四元数的归一化约束。仿真分析结果表明,本文提出的非线性滤波算法能够有效地提高小卫星的定姿性能,与扩展卡尔曼滤波相比,具有较高的精度、稳定性和较快的收敛速度;与无迹卡尔曼滤波相比,收敛性相当,但是精度略优,稳定性和计算效率较高。     

Riccati传递矩阵法在潜艇结构强度和稳定性分析中的应用

运用Riccati传递矩阵方法,建立了旋转壳单元的场传递矩阵,推导了肋骨和母线倾角不连续位置的点传递矩阵,在推导中考虑了肋骨各方向可能的变形,编制了用于分析组合加肋旋转壳应力和稳定性的计算机程序(应力程序SAPRi,稳定性程序BAPRi)。利用SAPRi程序和BAPRi程序对潜艇耐压结构的典型结构算例进行了应力和稳定性分析,并将计算结果与理论结果或商用软件(MSC/NASTRAN)的计算结果进行比较,表明该程序结果正确可信,计算速度快,适合于工程应用。     

计算边界范围的选取对渗流作用下边坡稳定性分析精度的影响

目前针对渗流作用下边坡的稳定性分析一般都是首先通过渗流计算求得坡体内浸润面的位置,然后再进行安全系数的求解,所以当坡体后部地下水补给充足时,边界范围的选取将直接影响到坡体内浸润面的位置和安全系数的计算结果.由于PLAXIS有限元程序在渗流计算方面具有比较强大的功能,因此采用该软件对边界范围对渗流作用下边坡稳定性分析精度的影响进行研究.从算例所得到的结果看,当左边距等于10倍坡高时,安全系数的变化逐渐稳定,左边距的增大对安全系数不再产生影响.     

基于输入输出线性化的深海潜标姿态控制

针对当前深海潜标水下不能主动调整姿态的问题,提出了一种基于矢量推进螺旋桨的主动姿态控制方法.首先,利用凝集质量法建立潜标缆索在深海环境中的运动模型,解算张力及缆索构型;然后,联立潜标六自由度运动方程,耦合缆索两端的边界条件,采用四阶龙格-库塔法解算获得潜标的运动要素与姿态变化;最后,针对潜标运动的非线性数学模型,提出了一种基于输入输出线性化的状态反馈姿态控制律,并编制Matlab程序进行仿真.仿真结果表明:该控制律能够使潜标姿态跟踪到参考姿态.     

喷雾式防火分隔水幕稳定性仿真

以单个喷雾式水幕喷头为研究对象,利用 Fluent 中离散相模型对不同压力下的喷雾水幕的工作稳定性进行了研究,计算了不同工作压力下水雾粒子的粒径分布和在气流作用下的偏移情况,分析了不同粒径粒子的速度衰减特性。研究表明：环境气流对水幕的稳定性影响很大,特别是粒径在200μm 以下的水雾粒子极容易受气流影响。在一定空间高度下,提高工作压力,可以使喷雾平均粒径变小,使之分布更均匀,有利于提高水幕的隔热性能;当空间高度超过一定范围后,水雾粒子速度急剧下降,增加工作压力水幕稳定性会降低。     

某型末制导炮弹惯导飞行角运动研究

为研究某型末制导炮弹惯性飞行过程的稳定性,建立该炮弹在惯导飞行阶段有控弹道攻角运动方程.基于该攻角运动方程,求解方程特征根推导出末制导炮弹自由运动的稳定性条件,并给出舵片偏转控制力对弹体强迫作用的解,分别讨论了影响自由运动和受迫运动稳定性的因素.分析结果表明,惯性飞行过程中,舵面参数以及弹丸转动角速度是影响飞行稳定的主要因素,舵片偏转过程与弹丸共振条件无关.     

Special Section: Nuclear Stability In South Asia

The question of nuclear stability in South Asia is a subject of both academic and policy significance. It is the only region in the world that has three, contiguous nuclear-armed states: India, the People's Republic of China, and Pakistan. It is also freighted with unresolved border disputes. To compound matters, all three states are now modernizing their nuclear forces and have expressed scant interest in any form of regional arms control. These issues and developments constitute the basis of this special section, which explores the problems and prospects of nuclear crisis stability in the region.