On the Determinants of Terrorism Risk Concern in Europe

We investigate whether differences in terrorism risk are mirrored on terrorism risk perception across European countries for the period 2003–2007. We find that the average propensity for terrorism risk concern is affected by actual risk levels. Country and individual heterogeneity contribute substantially to the variation of observed risk perception. Singles and individuals with white collar jobs are less likely to mention terrorism as one of the most pressing issues their country faces, while political positioning towards the right makes it more likely to be concerned about terrorism. As far as competing risks are concerned, we find that the likelihood terrorism is mentioned, decreases with spending on pensions as a percentage of GDP being higher. Finally, based on the Bayesian framework, we also examined the formation of terrorism risk perceptions, and decompose the observed country-level time series of terrorism activity into a long- and a short-run component. We concluded that the observed risk perception variation is only explained by the long-term trend of terrorism activity countries face.     

NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH

The funding of international nuclear risk mitigation is ad hoc, voluntary, and unpredictable, offering no transparent explanation of who is financially responsible for the task or why. Among many non-nuclear-armed states, this exacerbates a sense of injustice surrounding what they see as a discriminatory nuclear regime. The resulting erosion of the regime's legitimacy undermines support for efforts to prevent nuclear weapons dissemination and terrorism. This article proposes a transparent, equitable “nuclear-user-pays” system as a logical means of reversing this trend. This system envisions states contributing financially to international efforts to mitigate nuclear risks at a level relative to the degree of nuclear risks created by each state. “National nuclear risk factors” would be calculated by tabulating the risks associated with each state's civilian and military nuclear activities, as well as advanced dual-use and nuclear-capable missile activities, multiplying the severity of each risk by the probability of it occurring, and combining these results. A nuclear-user-pays model would create financial incentives for national and corporate nuclear risk mitigation, boost legitimacy and support for nuclear control efforts among non-nuclear-armed states, assist in preventing nuclear weapons dissemination and terrorism, and advance nuclear disarmament by helping progressively devalue nuclear weapons.     

模糊综合评判的装备研制风险评估

装备研制风险评估是在风险分析的基础上对所研究阶段的风险性进行评估,计算该阶段的风险得分,最终确定其风险等级,对结果进行比较分析,为下一步工作的开展确定方向,具有重要的指导意义.对装备研制的风险管理进行了研究.针对装备研制项目阶段特点,从风险管理工作的现实需求出发,以风险管理的基本理论为基础,结合其他领域已有的风险管理模型,建立了装备研制风险管理的针对性模型,并结合事例对装备研制风险管理模型的具体应用进行了说明.     

高新装备复合式预防性保修风险模型

结合高新装备保修需求,引入复合式预防性保修策略,以"定期更换周期内辅以功能检测"这种典型复合维修工作为例,从安全性影响的角度分析了装备的故障发生情况,并建立了其故障风险数学模型。在此基础上,通过算例给出了所建模型的应用方法,研究了该策略下决策变量对故障风险的影响,并分析了模型的通用性。     

中庭内步梯在火灾疏散中的应用探讨

对中庭内步梯在火灾情况下人员紧急疏散的使用进行了探讨,提出了使用水幕减弱火灾辐射危害的措施,并运用火灾危险分析方法进行了论述。     

建筑消防工程隐患成因及整改对策探析

分析了建筑消防工程在设计、施工、产品质量、消防验收等方面火灾隐患形成的原因,同时为适应当前消防工作的需要,针对消防工程中存在的火灾隐患提出了建筑消防工程的全过程质量控制及整改对策。     

化工类实验室火灾成因与对策探讨

消防安全隐患是化工实验室存在的诸多安全隐患中最大的隐患,其危害性也最为严重。对化工类实验室的消防安全隐患进行分析,研究探讨化工类实验室防火安全管理措施,提高该类场所预防火灾的能力。     

试论屋顶简易建筑消防安全隐患的治理

结合西藏拉萨市屋顶简易建筑治理情况,分析研究了屋顶简易建筑消防安全特点和消防安全管理面临的困境,提出了屋顶简易建筑消防安全治理的措施。     

基于HHM-RFRM的实弹发射风险分析研究

实弹发射是复杂的系统性军事训练活动,在实施前要对其进行风险评估,实施的全过程中要进行风险管理,首要工作是运用科学方法进行风险分析。本文运用系统工程的思想,针对实弹发射这一复杂系统活动,识别得到环境、交通、技术、管理、人员、任务、装备、保障和通信这9类风险情景,进一步分析建立了实弹发射风险等级全息模型（HHM）。在此基础上,运用风险过滤、评级与管理框架（RFRM）,通过初步情景过滤、双重标准过滤、多重标准过滤、主要风险情景的定量评级等步骤对以上风险情景进行过滤分析,得到了环境因素、装备因素和管理因素这3种最重要的风险因素。通过综合运用HHM和RFRM方法分析出的风险因素,能够为决策者进行有针对性的风险评估和风险管理提供一定理论支持。     

进度风险的随机网络建模与仿真分析

为研究装备研制工程进度的风险分布特征,建立了包含正态分布、β分布、三角分布的随机网络进度风险分析模型,通过蒙特卡罗法仿真获得工程项目的进度估计及其统计分布特性,从而获得工程总工期的风险,并结合实例进行了分析.