新型光电装备免费及按比例组合保修策略

通过对新型光电装备故障规律和实际保修的需求分析,在原有规定保证期内免费保修策略基础上进行优化,提出免费及按比例保修组合策略概念,建立该策略对应的费用模型及可用度模型,得到费效比函数。同时通过对某新型光电装备保证期内维修保障工作应用组合保修策略开展实例建模,得到最优策略并分析证明提出该组合策略的实用性和可行性。     

二维保修装备可用度优化模型

针对二维保修装备的可用度难以满足部队需求的问题,通过优化保修策略,提出由部队和厂家分别实施不同维修程度的预防性维修,并利用修复因子来区别不同的维修程度,建立二维保修装备可用度模型。最后,通过算例验证了模型的有效性,并进行了敏感性分析。     

基于费效分析的装备延伸保修购买决策

保修机制是部队引入承制方装备维修力量的重要途径,延伸保修对装备的寿命周期费用以及承制方保修费用有很大影响。针对军方延伸保修购买决策问题,在对维修策略分析的基础上,综合考虑装备维修费用和可用度,建立了延伸保修购买决策相关模型,结合装备承制方保修成本及军方装备维修费用——效能分析,得到了在不同价格区间内延伸保修购买决策,并给出了特定条件下存在的双赢延伸保修价格区间,最后通过实例验证了模型的有效性。     

舰船延伸保修策略多方群体冲突交互式决策模型

为推进海军舰船保修模式改革以促进舰船维修保障一体化发展,当前急需确定一种更匹配装备售后发展主流趋势与海军舰船采购制度的舰船保修策略.对当前海军舰船保修4种模式进行界定和优劣势分析,以确定海军舰船保修策略的调整方向,在界定了海军当前可以实施的32种保修策略的基础上,利用逻辑决断法判断当前海军可以实施的16种质保策略.重点利用基于交互式谈判解决多方群体利益冲突的方法建立了决策模型,以解决舰船延伸保修策略决策谈判中不可避免出现的多方利益冲突的问题,算例结果显示一维非更新预防性简单舰船延伸保修策略在多方群体决策中胜出,借助决策模型可分析出在群体决策中占据优势的要点.     

舰用柴油机风险维修层次决策模型

针对舰用柴油机设备的特点,建立一种以风险评估为基础的维修层次决策模型。该模型主要由风险评估、风险评价和维修决策3大模块构成。设备的故障风险通过分析其故障概率、主要故障模式及其后果来综合评估。基于舰用柴油机作为舰船装备的特殊性,依次从安全性和任务性两方面来分析其故障后果,并在满足安全性和任务性要求的前提下,考虑其经济性影响,以最小化维修费用为目标对维修策略进行进一步的优化。最后,以柴油机的润滑系统为例,优化得出了润滑系统各部件的最佳维修间隔期,有效降低了系统的故障风险及其维修成本,证明该模型可行有效。     

基于风险的重大任务期间装备维修时机决策建模

为了制定科学合理的维修时机、降低装备故障风险,在经济性、任务性和安全性风险三个单目标决策模型的基础上,首先明确装备故障风险分析的步骤,分析了两种维修方式下的维修时机决策建模;然后,提出了基于风险的装备维修时机决策建模方法;随后,建立了考虑经济性、任务性和安全性的单目标模型和考虑故障风险的多目标模型,并给出了两种情况下的模型求解步骤;最后,结合某装备安全阀进行案例分析,验证了模型的有效性。     

新型光电装备延伸保修决策方法研究

延伸保修是开展军民融合式装备保障的重要技术手段之一,通过合理选择延伸保修策略,可以在有限的经济条件下较好地完成维修保障任务,提高装备维修保障效益.针对新型光电装备特点,在考虑安全性、任务性和经济性因素的背景下,提出一种由逻辑决断分析法和模糊层次分析法相结合的延伸保修决策方法.通过逻辑决断分析从定性角度选择合理的延伸保修策略,采用模糊层次分析法对逻辑决断得到的结果进行定量补充分析,为类似装备的延伸保修决策提供决策参考.     

作战飞机可靠性与维修性仿真模型

通过故障树分析建立了作战飞机仿真逻辑关系。在修正线性同余法的基础上获得了随机数模型。在各设备故障发生状态和修复状态识别的基础上,建立了可靠性维修性仿真模型,确定了作战飞机在仿真过程中的工作状态,并根据故障模式影响分析预计了设备故障对作战飞机的影响。最后以F/A-18为例进行可靠性维修性仿真,获得了实时的故障信息和修复信息,验证了仿真模型的可行性。     

基于证据推理的装备部件故障风险评价模型研究

为了掌握装备故障风险状态,确保装备任务的顺利完成,建立了包含故障发生可能性、故障后果、故障可检测性等因素的风险评价指标体系。即首先采用故障模式及影响分析法,对装备系统组成部件的各种故障模式进行了识别;其次,采用模糊集理论和信度结构相结合的方法,建立了模糊信度结构风险描述模型;再次,采用证据推理方法,构建了模糊证据推理的风险评价融合模型;最后,以某型柴油机燃油系统的喷油泵作为案例,验证了模型的适用性、可行性和准确性。     

基于威布尔比例故障率模型的装备检测间隔期多属性模糊决策方法

在对威布尔比例故障率模型进行研究的基础上,以可接受的故障风险为约束,计算了装备的检测间隔期。由于装备使用受到故障风险、检测费用、可用度及停机时间等多属性影响,运用基于加权投影折中法建立了模糊多属性状态检测周期决策模型,实现了多因素条件下状态检测间隔期的综合优化决策。最后,通过实例分析验证了该模型的适用性。     

An Unlikely Alliance: Portuguese and South African Airpower in Angola, 1968–1974

The war that Portugal was obliged to fight in Africa began in 1961 and immediately stretched the resources of its armed forces. Nowhere was this thinness more apparent than in policing the vast territory of Angola. The east and southeast of Angola were particularly vulnerable, as the area was a vast, sparsely populated region characterised by enormous featureless plains or chanas covered in tall grass and broken by an extensive river system and mountainous forests. The only military solution to policing these immense spaces was aviation and specifically the helicopter that could carry troops into battle, protect them with a gunship and bring them home when the operation was concluded. The immediate problem for the Portuguese Air Force (Força Aérea Portuguesa or FAP) in Angola and elsewhere was a scarcity of helicopters. The solution was an alliance with South Africa, which had a strong inventory of Alouette IIIs, to help in policing the east. This move was likewise in the interest of South Africa, as its threat came from Zambia through south-eastern Angola. This article examines the strategic and tactical development of this unusual, cross-cultural alliance and the symbiotic relationship that resulted in destruction of the enemies of both in Angola.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

国内外结构钢焊条研究的现状与发展

本文主要介绍了国外焊条的现状和发展趋势,包括焊条的高韧性、高效率、低尘低毒和耐吸潮性能,为国内的焊条研究提供了参考依据。     

A Sign of Victory?: ‘Scottish Swords’ and Other Weapons in the Possession of the ‘Auld Innemie’

Many late medieval documents, notably inventories of arms and armour, of Englishmen contain references to ‘Scottish swords’ and other weapons. What did the compilers of these documents mean when they described a weapon as ‘Scottish’? How did such weapons come to be in the possession of these men? This article will attempt to explain this phenomenon drawing on primary documentary sources and surviving material culture from Glasgow Museums’ collections and others, as well as artworks from the period.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Cyberpower in Strategic Affairs: Neither Unthinkable nor Blessed

Abstract

This article explores the effect of connectivity on strategic affairs. It argues that the effect on war's character is potentially, although not yet shown in practice, considerably large. Its effect upon the distribution of power among states in the international system is small, contrary to the claims of ‘cyberwar’ alarmists. All told, however, its effect upon strategic affairs is complex. On the one hand, it represents a significant advance in the ‘complexification’ of state strategies, understood in the sense of the production of intended effects. On the other hand, strategists today – still predominantly concerned with the conflicts and confrontations of states and organised military power – are generally missing the power which non-traditional strategic actors, better adapted to the network flows of the information age, are beginning to deploy. These new forms of organization and coercion will challenge the status quo.