The effects of model parameter deviations on the variance of a linearly filtered time series

We consider a general linear filtering operation on an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series. The variance of the filter output, which is an important quantity in many applications, is not known with certainty because it depends on the true ARMA parameters. We derive an expression for the sensitivity (i.e., the partial derivative) of the output variance with respect to deviations in the model parameters. The results provide insight into the robustness of many common statistical methods that are based on linear filtering and also yield approximate confidence intervals for the output variance. We discuss applications to time series forecasting, statistical process control, and automatic feedback control of industrial processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

对2010版人才培养方案人文素质教育的几点思考

2010版人才培养方案设置《人文素质辅助培养方案》,培养学员的人文精神、创造性思维、艺术品位和审美情趣,提高学员的综合素质,促进学员全面发展,使学员具备与公安边防、消防、警卫工作要求相适应的人文精神。为此,必须摸清学员人文素质教育的现状,认清开展人文素质教育的意义,理清开展人文素质教育的思路。     

The building evacuation problem with shared information

In this article, the Building Evacuation Problem with Shared Information (BEPSI) is formulated as a mixed integer linear program, where the objective is to determine the set of routes along which to send evacuees (supply) from multiple locations throughout a building (sources) to the exits (sinks) such that the total time until all evacuees reach the exits is minimized. The formulation explicitly incorporates the constraints of shared information in providing online instructions to evacuees, ensuring that evacuees departing from an intermediate or source location at a mutual point in time receive common instructions. Arc travel time and capacity, as well as supply at the nodes, are permitted to vary with time and capacity is assumed to be recaptured over time. The BEPSI is shown to be NP‐hard. An exact technique based on Benders decomposition is proposed for its solution. Computational results from numerical experiments on a real‐world network representing a four‐story building are given. Results of experiments employing Benders cuts generated in solving a given problem instance as initial cuts in addressing an updated problem instance are also provided. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

加强新疆高校学位点建设工作的思考

学位点建设是一项系统工程，学位点的多少和层次可以体现一所学校学科建设和师资队伍建设的水平。本文通过与西部重点高校学位点建设现状的比较，分析了新疆高校学位点建设中存在的问题，提出了加强学位点建设的措施。     

解析美国大学TESL硕士培养的主要课程与设置理据——以曼卡托明尼苏达州立大学为例

把英语作为第二语言的教学是20世纪60年代在美国兴起并逐步走向独立的科目,它在综合相关专业的同时正在朝专业化方向发展。近年来其硕士层面的教育为全球培养了大量合格的中小学英语教师,取得了较好的成绩。本文以曼卡托明尼苏达州立大学英语系为例,并结合笔者在该系攻读TESL硕士学位时的经历,解析其主要课程及设置理据。     

Quantifying the performance effects of idle time utilization in multiserver systems

In many practical multiserver queueing systems, servers not only serve randomly arriving customers but also work on the secondary jobs with infinite backlog during their idle time. In this paper, we propose a c‐server model with a two‐threshold policy, denoted by (e d), to evaluate the performance of this class of systems. With such a policy, when the number of idle servers has reached d (<c), then e (<d) idle agents will process secondary jobs. These e servers keep working on the secondary jobs until they find waiting customers exist in the system at a secondary job completion instant. Using the matrix analytic method, we obtain the stationary performance measures for evaluating different (e, d) policies. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.     

Optimization and mediated bartering models for ground delay programs

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the airline community within the United States have adopted a new paradigm for air traffic flow management, called Collaborative Decision Making (CDM). A principal goal of CDM is shared decision‐making responsibility between the FAA and airlines, so as to increase airline control over decisions that involve economic tradeoffs. So far, CDM has primarily led to enhancements in the implementation of Ground Delay Programs, by changing procedures for allocating slots to airlines and exchanging slots between airlines. In this paper, we discuss how these procedures may be formalized through appropriately defined optimization models. In addition, we describe how inter‐airline slot exchanges may be viewed as a bartering process, in which each “round” of bartering requires the solution of an optimization problem. We compare the resulting optimization problem with the current procedure for exchanging slots and discuss possibilities for increased decision‐making capabilities by the airlines. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

装备表面现代维修保养技术研究

结合装备表面智能维修保养技术方面的研究成果,介绍了装甲装备故障智能检测技术、自适应、自修复功能材料,装甲装备器材全自动保养设备等先进技术,侧重装备维修保养阐述了如何提高信息化程度,推进军队武器装备维修保养技术的现代化建设。     

基于不确定性理论的研制技术风险评估方法研究

分析了装备研制技术风险的含义,根据技术风险的特点建立了评价技术风险的指标体系。在技术风险度量中引入不确定性理论的概念,并建立了基于不确定性的技术风险的度量方法,对综合技术风险进行评价。最后通过实例验证了综合评价方法的可用性。     

(修，2撤3)关键几何参数对超声速膨胀器流场和性能影响的数值研究

为了揭示关键几何参数对超声速膨胀器流动特性影响的规律,对3种隔板安装角和5种出进口面积比超声速膨胀器设计工况下的流场进行了数值研究。结果表明：随隔板安装角增加,斜激波向出口迁移,斜激波强度略有降低,超声速膨胀器膨胀比减小,效率提高;随出进口面积比增加,流道内高速区显著扩大并逐渐靠近压力面,斜激波增强,出口流动损失增加,超声速膨胀器膨胀比增大,效率降低。为获得综合性能较优超声速膨胀器结构,需在较小出进口面积比和较大隔板安装角之间做折衷选择。