Development and conflict in the Balkans: Catch-up and military expenditure

This paper analyses the convergence between countries in relation to the catch-up hypothesis concerning the level of total productivity. The catch-up hypothesis claims that poor countries tend to grow faster than rich countries through the international diffusion of knowledge and technology. We test this hypothesis for the Balkan countries and investigate the effect of military expenditure in the region on productivity growth. The aim is to investigate empirically whether productivity growth has been greater in countries with lower military expenditure, in line with theory. The results obtained show that, overall, improvements in technological change co-exist with deteriorating technical efficiency change and that there is a negative correlation between military expenditure and either total productivity growth and technological change, and a positive, but statistically insignificant, relationship with technical efficiency change. We conclude that economic growth is the key to regional development and that too great a diversion of resources to military commitments can lead to overstretch.     

Civilian Cooperation and Non-Cooperation with Non-State Armed Groups: The Centrality of Obedience and Resistance

Abstract

Terms like ‘support’ and ‘collaboration’ are often used interchangeably to denote a loose set of acts or attitudes that benefit non-state armed groups (NSAGs). However, these terms are seldom defined, and the alternatives available to civilians are rarely identified. Moreover, existing approaches overlook that the interaction between civilians and NSAGs is often one between ruler and ruled, which makes obedience and resistance central. This paper proposes to conceptualize the choices available to civilians as forms of cooperation and non-cooperation, offers a typology, and discusses the implications for theory building on civilian and NSAG behavior, and on the functioning of armed social orders.     

An intervention analysis of terrorism: The spanish eta case

In this paper we evaluate what terrorism policies have worked best in handling the Spanish ETA terrorism using time series data from 1968 to 2000. We consider the political, deterrence and economic effects, and conclude that their influence on terrorism incidents is mixed. A parsimonious model shows that the behaviour of different terrorism incidents is distinct and the lagged effect is a primary concern. A policy to manage this case is devised.     

ARE USA CITIZENS AT RISK OF TERRORISM IN EUROPE?

This paper analyzes the determinants of the probability of US citizens being victims of terrorist attacks in European countries, taking into account uncontrolled heterogeneity of the data. The analysis employs ITERATE data from February 1968 to December 2002 to ascertain significant characteristics that influence the probability (e.g. location, type of casualties, type of attack, and type of terrorists). To deal with the unobserved heterogeneity a random‐parameter logit model (mixed logit) is used. Some policy implications are presented.     

Small countries and the consolidation of the European defence industry: Portugal as a case study

In this paper, we analyse the dilemma confronted by a small country in relation to the consolidation taking place in the European defence industry. Assuming that Portugal must maintain its armed forces, and must retain a minor defence industry, this industry must be competitive in small niches. Competitiveness must be based on, amongst other elements, technical efficiency and technological change. We investigate this issue, first characterizing the threats faced by the Portuguese defence industry, then investigating its present efficiency and finally, we discuss its role in the consolidation of the European Industry. We conclude that the Portuguese defence industry has no alternative but to opt for innovation and European partnership, which are complementary policies, but which require the active involvement of the stakeholder (i.e. the Government) in effecting these fundamental shifts in direction and emphasis. If this strategy does not succeed, the defence policy should be based on offsets.     

Country survey: Angola

This paper is a survey of Angola’s defence sector and policy from 1992, the year the civil war ended, to 2012. Angola achieved its independence upon the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) defeating National Union for the Total Independence of Angola. Since then, fuelled by its rich natural resources, the country has grown steadily. The MPLA military forces were a central factor behind independence and maintain their central role to this day. Moreover, Angola’s support for African peace with monitoring military missions is a clear indication that the country aims to intervene in African security and military issues, with its military capabilities funded by oil revenues.     

Resilience in peacebuilding: Contesting uncertainty,ambiguity, and complexity

With the failure of liberal peace strategies in the Global South, resilience has recently become the risk management strategy par excellence in peacebuilding. Since it is not possible to predict when the next crisis will take place, peacebuilders must invest in bottom-up adaptive capacities to cope with external shocks. This article moves away from governmentality accounts of resilience which are overtly deterministic and depoliticizing. Instead, it posits that the uncertainty, ambiguity, and complexity associated with resilience mean that we should expect opportunities for contestation and institutional agency. This argument will be illustrated by drawing upon the European Union’s adoption of the resilience approach in its peacebuilding and security policies. The article argues that while uncertainty, ambiguity, and complexity constitute the ontological conditions that underpin the rise of resilience in peacebuilding, they are also likely to lead to its potential demise.     

Single‐warehouse multi‐retailer inventory systems with full truckload shipments

We consider a multi‐stage inventory system composed of a single warehouse that receives a single product from a single supplier and replenishes the inventory of n retailers through direct shipments. Fixed costs are incurred for each truck dispatched and all trucks have the same capacity limit. Costs are stationary, or more generally monotone as in Lippman (Management Sci 16, 1969, 118–138). Demands for the n retailers over a planning horizon of T periods are given. The objective is to find the shipment quantities over the planning horizon to satisfy all demands at minimum system‐wide inventory and transportation costs without backlogging. Using the structural properties of optimal solutions, we develop (1) an O(T²) algorithm for the single‐stage dynamic lot sizing problem; (2) an O(T³) algorithm for the case of a single‐warehouse single‐retailer system; and (3) a nested shortest‐path algorithm for the single‐warehouse multi‐retailer problem that runs in polynomial time for a given number of retailers. To overcome the computational burden when the number of retailers is large, we propose aggregated and disaggregated Lagrangian decomposition methods that make use of the structural properties and the efficient single‐stage algorithm. Computational experiments show the effectiveness of these algorithms and the gains associated with coordinated versus decentralized systems. Finally, we show that the decentralized solution is asymptotically optimal. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009