What Goes Up Must Come Down: Military Expenditure and Civil Wars

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of civil war on military expenditure. We employ two measures of military expenditure: the share of military expenditure in general government expenditure and the logarithm of military expenditures. We would reasonably expect a priori that military expenditure as a share of general government expenditure increases during a civil war and that such increases would taper off over the duration of a civil war. We also explore whether the termination of a civil war induces a decline in the share of military expenditure as a share of the general government expenditure in the short-run. We find evidence the of share of military expenditure increases during a civil war and falls in the year succeeding the end of a civil war, and, in particular, if a war ends in a peace treaty. The level of military expenditures, however, rises during civil wars and does not appear to decline in the short-term after the end of a civil war.     

The African warlord revisited

To date, warlordism in Africa has been viewed solely negatively. This has come about, in part, because of the analytical lenses that have been used. Typically, warlordism has been examined at the state level; and behavioural traits, rather than definitionally necessary components, have been the focus. In effect, ‘warlord’ has been confused with other violent actors. I suggest here a reconceptualisation ‘from below’, which takes into account variation in types of warlordism, and which allows for both positive and negative effects of warlordism on society and the state.     

Search and the introduction of improved technologies

Modeling R&D as standard sequential search, we consider a monopolist who can implement a sequence of technological discoveries during the technology search process: he earns revenue on his installed technology while he engages in R&D to find improved technology. What is not standard is that he has a finite number of opportunities to introduce improved technology. We show that his optimal policy is characterized by thresholds ξ_i(x): introduce the newly found technology if and only if it exceeds ξ_i(x) when x is the state of the currently installed technology and i is the number of remaining introductions allowed. We also analyze a nonstationary learning‐by‐doing model in which the monopolist's experience in implementing new technologies imparts increased capability in generating new technologies. Because this nonstationary model is not in the class of monotone stopping problems, a number of surprising results hold and several seemingly obvious properties of the stationary model no longer hold. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Modeling and analyzing multiple station baggage screening security system performance

In the aftermath of the tragic events of 11 September 2001, numerous changes have been made to aviation security policy and operations throughout the nation's airports. The allocation and utilization of checked baggage screening devices is a critical component in aviation security systems. This paper formulates problems that model multiple sets of flights originating from multiple stations (e.g., airports, terminals), where the objective is to optimize a baggage screening performance measure subject to a finite amount of resources. These measures include uncovered flight segments (UFS) and uncovered passenger segments (UPS). Three types of multiple station security problems are identified and their computational complexity is established. The problems are illustrated on two examples that use data extracted from the Official Airline Guide. The examples indicate that the problems can provide widely varying solutions based on the type of performance measure used and the restrictions imposed by the security device allocations. Moreover, the examples suggest that the allocations based on the UFS measure also provide reasonable solutions with respect to the UPS measure; however, the reverse may not be the case. This suggests that the UFS measure may provide more robust screening device allocations. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

Some experiments in global optimization

When applied to a problem which has more than one local optimal solution, most nonlinear programming algorithms will terminate with the first local solution found. Several methods have been suggested for extending the search to find the global optimum of such a nonlinear program. In this report we present the results of some numerical experiments designed to compare the performance of various strategies for finding the global solution.     

What Sticks? The Evaluation of a Train-the-Trainer Course in Military Ethics and its Perceived Outcomes

Ethics training has become a common phenomenon in the training of military professionals at all levels. However, the perceived outcomes of this training remain open. In this article, we analyze the experiences of course participants who were interviewed 6–12 months after they had participated in a train-the-trainer course in military ethics developed by the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy. Through qualitative inductive analysis, it is shown how participants evaluate the training, how they perceive the development of their moral competence, and how they see the impact of the training on their own training practice.